Bolton: Time to back golfer looking to bookend major championship season

Remember last week when you adjusted for an overnight roster deadline in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf? Of course you do, but it never hurts to read another courtesy reminder about the same thing for The Open Championship. Technically, the deadline is 25 minutes earlier than what it was for the Genesis Scottish Open, but it’s still 1:35 a.m. on Thursday on the East Coast of the United States and 10:35 p.m. on Wednesday on the West Coast, so it plays the same as it concerns your lifestyle.

With that twice-annual public gaming announcement out of the way, prepare to get lucky or unlucky at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. At least that’s the baseline acceptance when it comes to the last major of the year. From the style of the golf to the ever-changing elements, there are years when you’d have more success herding kindergartners when the bell sounds to signal the end of recess.

However, this isn’t setting up to be one of those years.

My Power Rankings are published on Mondays. (In weeks like this with an Additional Event, the Power Rankings for the Corales Puntacana Championship are live on Tuesday, but those tournaments don’t contribute to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.) I always include an early review of the weather and its potential impact on a tournament, but, of course, things can change. That’s especially relevant for The Open. It has always been, and we can agree it always will be.

While margins of error are respected in longer-range forecasts, they narrow closer to the targeted range of time. Well, in the last 48 hours, there’s been no increase in the expectation for gusty winds at any time during the tournament. In fact, there’s been a general consensus that this will be as close to an Open in a dome as we may ever witness. Only light breezes accompany warm air associated with it, and only those should kick up later in the day and probably every day.

So, if you’re located somewhere in the heat in the U.S. and will be tuning in with the notion to see wind-whipping jackets and trousers, then the 154th edition of the major will not be for you. It’ll be good for fantasy gamers, though.

A firm and fast Royal Birkdale will elevate the guys who arrive in form, especially on approach. Because it’s been nine years since it last hosted and because of the renovation in the interim, ball-strikers already have the edge as the entire field learns the nuance of the greens. Royal Birkdale and Aronimink Golf Club never will be confused for each other, but the same dynamic favored ball-strikers at the PGA Championship, where noted sharpshooter Aaron Rai broke through. When in doubt, lean on that subset of talent.

Not the least of our priorities is roster management. As it concerns FedExCup bonus points, The Open is on the same level as all three legs of the FedExCup Playoffs, so whittle your choices for the usual suspects down to those four of the remaining seven tournaments in Segment 3. From them, only the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the TOUR Championship will be contested at the same course as last year. So, from the point of view of course history, plan to rely on guys who have performed well at either to help shoulder the load.

That’s the strategy for front-runners, at least. Those among you can play more defensively and use the clock to your advantage. The rest of us will need to get creative ... and lucky.

Connect with me on X, where I’m always available to serve as a sounding board and walk through your unique situation. You can message me publicly or privately.

Captain

Rory McIlroy ... If I’m playing this game in a classic sense, there’s no chance that I’m burning a start on anyone likely to get at least two in the Playoffs if I have only two remaining, as I do with him. However, with FedExCup bonus points having been reduced in the Playoffs and given my strategy to dub McIlroy (or Scottie Scheffler) as the captain every time I do, this is an easy call in that vacuum. With two starts remaining for each and with four tournaments remaining in which both are expected to compete, the plan spans the duration.

This boils down to the option of which guy to play at Royal Birkdale and save the other for the Playoffs. The wrinkle is that I’m usually the front-runner in my little league, for which that strategy is sensible. However, now that I’m in a position of pursuit, the option to roster McIlroy without designating him as the captain has merit both defensively (to mitigate losses) and offensively (to pivot to a star who can make a dent in Chris Breece’s lead). This is the lament of the chaser.

Other considerations

• Matt Fitzpatrick ... While he’s No. 3 in the Power Rankings, he’d be my captain if I had at least two starts remaining. Dude is in the zone. It’s just a coincidence that he’s an Englishman chasing the claret jug in his homeland.
• Tommy Fleetwood ... This is a home game for the No. 1 in my Power Rankings and I have two starts remaining, so I might be self-persuaded to swap him in to be my captain because Breece has chosen McIlroy. Guys like Nick Taylor (RBC Canadian Open) and Robert MacIntyre (Genesis Scottish Open) recently have delivered momentous victories at home, so I’m not turned off by the potential distractions that go with it.

Rounding out the roster

When I set this roster late on Monday night, even though tee times had been released, these choices were influenced by the fact that the weather forecast on Wednesday (today) would serve as the final judge. This isn’t to say that first instinct is irrelevant, but if I ever had the option to wait until the last minute to lock a roster in, it’d be for The Open.

My starters

• Tyrrell Hatton
• Viktor Hovland
• Rory McIlroy
• Collin Morikawa

My bench

• Justin Rose (1)
• Chris Gotterup (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands a pause and why.

Jordan Spieth ... No, he’s not the defending champ, but he’s the most recent winner of The Open at Royal Birkdale. It’s also the three-time major champion’s most recent win in the series. He’s gone 14 straight without a top 10 and 23 consecutive starts in all official competition without one. He turns 33 years of age on July 27, so he’s not old by any measure, especially in this sport, but he has evolved into the kind of grizzled veteran with past success for whom magic awaits at some point in this tournament. Just not now.

Sam Burns… He’s No. 13 in the Power Rankings but that he didn’t withdraw to stay home for what was thought to be the imminent birth of his second child was noteworthy. It turns out that his daughter arrived on July 3, so here he is. He acknowledged the challenge to lock in mentally, given his life experience, but made the trip anyway. When his son, Bear, was born in April of 2024, Sam’s form immediately ahead of it was inconsistent. He’d eventually rebound with a flourish, but it took him one start to reconnect. That resulted in a T44 at the RBC Heritage, where he’s recorded top 20s in three of the other most recent four editions. So, despite a strong 2026 that includes a solo second at the U.S. Open, save this start for the stretch run.

Cameron Young ... Although populating about 15 percent of the rosters saved, he presents merely as a complement and a starts-saver. He hasn’t missed a cut anywhere since last year’s Open at Royal Portrush but he arrives without a top 25 in four straight starts. No matter any spin of his impressive analytics, it’d be unlikely for him (or anyone, for that matter) to find their game and sustain it over four rounds at Royal Birkdale.

Shane Lowry ... It’s impossible to know what percentage of gamers are paying complete attention to every golfer rostered, but with him registering at about eight percent, it seems that a reasonably healthy cut hasn’t. (He’s the 18th-most-owned in the field of 156.) He arrives 8-for-13 (with three promised paydays in Signature Events baked in) and without a top 20 in that stretch. He also has no better than a T30 at this year’s Masters in his last seven starts in the majors, three of which resulted in missed cuts.

Returning to competition

Seamus Power ... Committed to the Corales Puntacana Championship, where he’d be making his sixth start. He’s bookended his trips with a T5 in 2018 and a T18 last year. After an inspiring start to 2026, the Irishman has scuffled for the majority of the last four months. In his last start at the John Deere Classic, a sore back forced him to call it quits after an opening 77. However, course success promotes fractional DFS play, so give him a look.

Jimmy Stanger ... Also in play at Corales Puntacana. He withdrew before his second round of last week’s ISCO Championship with an injured elbow. It wasn’t specified which arm was affected but he missed extended time in 2024 and 2025 due to tendinitis in his right elbow. That allowed for a medical extension that he recently exhausted, but he remains eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs via conditional status. Placed T23 in his only prior try at Corales in 2024, but leave him alone in all formats until he’s proven healthy.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.