Power Rankings: British Open 2026

Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, is ready to host the 154th edition of The Open Championship. The course is so well-received that, for the 156 who have qualified to chase history, not to mention the claret jug, it can feel like Christmas in July.

Whether Santa Claus – or Father Christmas, as he’s known in this neck of the world – leaves each entrant with a treat or a lump of coal isn’t necessarily up to performance. Instead, it’s Mother Nature who will be naughty or nice. As often is the case in this competition, she’ll be in control of the conditions alongside the Irish Sea. Outcomes weigh in the balance. No more significant is that deviation than at Royal Birkdale.

For more on that, the weather and other details of the final major of the year, continue reading beneath those projected to contend.

Scores determine who wins a golf tournament, but nothing matters more in The Open than the elements. It’s no different than how starting pitchers at Wrigley Field always look for the direction of the flags when they arrive on gameday. So, it’s with great respect that a review of the forecast gets first and full attention.

The prevailing breeze at Royal Birkdale is from a southwesterly direction, but it’s likely that only those who survive the 36-hole cut of low 70 and ties will be treated to it on the weekend. Until then, the wind pushes generally will be from the north. The good news is that a relatively tranquil pattern will govern gusts so that steady moderate winds will be the norm, if at all. Daytime temperatures should climb easily into the 70s throughout, and it will be dry.

Of course, in these parts, no one is foolish enough so as to rely on expectations concerning the conditions beyond what one personally experiences at any time, but the 2026 edition of The Open portends more for how things transpired the last time The R&A assigned Royal Birkdale to host duties in 2017 than its turn before that in 2008.

Nine years ago, Jordan Spieth prevailed by three strokes with a 72-hole tally of 12-under 268. En route to victory, he submitted, shall we say, a unique method of scoring a bogey at the par-4 13th hole in the finale. What was trademark Spieth also was the hallmark of what it takes to win The Open. But Royal Birkdale also yielded the first-ever sub-63 in major history when Branden Grace crafted a bogey-free, 8-under 62 in the third round. On that day, the par 70 rolled over for a scoring average of 69.03, exactly five strokes lower than its second round, for which its 74.03 would hold on as the highest scoring average for a second round all season.

To that, the 2008 edition says, “Hold my tea.”

The scoring average for the week that year was 74.869. It remains the highest clip in relation to par of every course the PGA TOUR has visited since, and Padraig Harrington's 3-over 283 is the only winning aggregate over par of the 21st century. Coal for all, except the Irishman, of course!

Perhaps as frequent as the weather impacts things is how much Royal Birkdale has changed over time. If not for the emphasis on the sky, the introduction of a new hole would get top billing on a track a little older than Wrigley Field. Indeed, the par-3 15th hole is making its debut this week. It presents as a brute at 241 yards, but that’s with the help of the prevailing wind. The old 15th is now the repositioned par-5 14th, tipping at 602 yards.

The modifications headlined a comprehensive update spearheaded by architect Tom Mackenzie. Perhaps you’re familiar with his work with partner Martin Ebert, most recently at Royal Portrush, site of the 2025 Open. Since 2017, Royal Birkdale is 67 yards longer and can stretch to 7,223 yards. That’s a sweet spot for a stock par 70.

Even sweeter could be the home stretch for the eventual winner. Both par 5s are on the inward side, so the respective pars of a round are 34 and 36. Unlike most Open venues, but very much the objective for pitchers when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, golfers aren’t required to keep the ball on the ground in traditional links style at Royal Birkdale. In fact, that won’t play as a sound strategy at all on a few holes with perched greens, but because it can yield low scores when the wind lays down, attacking with short irons will be commonplace. It’ll be a fair test, but it’ll be fun, too.

As of Monday, 41 guys in this week’s field can attest to that. They represent the cohort that gave it a go in 2017. Among them, six finished inside the top 10, while another five landed inside the top 25.

For those who outperform others this year, their fun further will be realized in a bevy of benefits. For example, the top 10 automatically will qualify for the 2027 Open at St Andrews, while the top four will punch tickets for the 2027 Masters.

The big box under the tree is reserved for the winner. He will be exempt into The Open through the age of 60 and into the other three majors through 2031. If eligible, his PGA TOUR membership exemption also will extend through 2031, as would an invitation to compete in THE PLAYERS Championship.

ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton previews and recaps every tournament. Refer to the timing of his contributions below. He’s also active as @RobBoltonGolf on X, where you can connect with him.

• MONDAY: Power Rankings (The Open Championship)
• TUESDAY: Sleepers* (The Open Championship); Power Rankings (Corales Puntacana Championship); Expert Picks
• WEDNESDAY: Fantasy Insider
• SUNDAY: Points and Payouts (The Open Championship); Points and Payouts (Corales Puntacana Championship); Qualifiers

Sign up now for content found exclusively in “The Early Card” newsletter, arriving to your inbox each Tuesday.