This is always a funky fortnight because qualification for next week’s PGA Championship is being settled as you read this, and it has directly affected the field for the AT&T Byron Nelson since the major was shifted to May in 2019. (The 2020 edition in August was an exception due to the significant rescheduling triggered by the pandemic.) However, this is the first year since the move during which the field for the PGA Championship hasn’t been released by at least Tuesday of the week prior, so there’s more reading of the tea leaves and justification of the rumors on which I, for one, don’t care to rely, not that there’s much time for that, anyway.

At some point, perhaps before the first tee ball is struck at TPC Craig Ranch on Thursday morning – assuming no delay, more on that in a moment – we’ll know who’s been added to the PGA Championship. In the meantime, please refer to Qualifiers that was updated at the conclusion of the Wells Fargo Championship. And soon after whenever the field is released, Qualifiers will be updated again, so it’s possible that by the time you read this, it already has been. Told ya it’s funky.

OK, focusing only on the matters of the AT&T Byron Nelson, it’s likely that none of the 156 entrants will be able to hide from the elements at any point during the tournament. The worst of the forecasts suggests that at least half of every round will be impacted. Of course, percentages are a product of a complicated formula for which anywhere from zero to 100 percent of inclement weather can be realities, but all we know is that Chamber of Commerce conditions these won’t be.

There are two approaches to consider when building your roster for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. The first is what all of us face – the draw.

With no delays, the early-late is set up to have the better of it, but you’ll want to keep a magnetic eye on whatever resources you trust. If there’s a delay, that easily could flip. When this possibility is reasonable, weaving a blend is the insurance. Ownership philosophies vary and stacking in the opposite direction of what seems smarter tends to yield more open road in DFS, but my message always has been to adjust to your format and desire. Remember, we don’t get to predict what happens, we can only prepare for and react to it.

The other dynamic in play is a biggie because it introduces wild swings in the ranks.

Front-runners in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf will be burning Scottie Scheffler for defensive purposes. Playing chalk is what propelled most of us into first place in the first place, and it will continue to present the best value to retain position. But after that, lineups will be filled with safeties to ride out the storm, literally.

Pacers also will ride two-time defending champion K.H. Lee because he’s the only winner at TPC Craig Ranch, but he’s not chalk in the classic sense, nor are any of the charges I’ve selected. Survival is my goal. Success is a bonus.

The combination of complementary talent with the uncertainty of the weather screams for chasers to deviate entirely from the norm. You need a week when churn is most likely to make a dent into your deficit, and this is it. Heck, even omitting Scheffler (or at least stowing him on your bench) has merit because he’s also not promised to perform up to the default top-10 stud that he is in a vacuum. If you do and if he stumbles, front-runners will be down one start while you’ll be smirking heading into the PGA Championship, Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, the last of which Scheffler skipped last year but should play this season because it’s a Designated event and he burned his allotted DNP in them last week.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Min Woo Lee (-150 = Top 40) … I’m impressed that his odds are this long for this finish. The Aussie is such an aggressive and confident player who’s yet to take on a vulnerable track on the PGA TOUR since his rise on the world stage, so he could be putting on quite the show. He needs a two-way T24 to achieve Special Temporary Membership – that itself would present as a sporty prop – and a Top 20 was +150 at last check, but multiply the units while retreating into this.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, May 10, at 5:30 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

PARLAY: Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee and Taylor Montgomery (+160 = All to Make the Cut) … Individually, every member of this trio figures to generate an above-average amount of attention at the window, and all for a positive result, so settling for a payday among each in conditions that figure to upend a few notables is a decent compromise. Kim has been in a groove all season (and he hasn’t been withdrawing!), while Montgomery has been knocked around on harder tracks in the heart of his rookie season, so the ease of TPC Craig Ranch could extract his best self itching to reunite with a higher position on the leaderboard. I stated my case for Lee as the Wild Card above.

Maverick McNealy (-200 = Make the Cut) … This doesn’t seem like much but he’s been unable to escape his rut since an injury to his upper body knocked him off course and off courses three months ago. Since a one-month break, he’s 3-for-4 in stroke-play competition with one top-55 finish. Weather worries all this week, so I’ve lowered the expectation from a top 40 for which he’s (-120).

Nate Lashley (+110 = Top 40) … With one of the lowest ball flights in the field, a litany of strong results in the wind, a T17 here last year and with three consecutive top 40s upon arrival, the veteran with the moxie to match belongs on your card. The bonus is that you’re getting plus value for this finish.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Tom Hoge, Stephan Jaeger and Maverick McNealy (+200 = All to Make the Cut)

Aaron Baddeley (+225 = Top 40)

MJ Daffue (+125 = Top 40)

Will Gordon (+130 = Miss the Cut)

Stephan Jaeger (+120 = Top Continental European)

David Micheluzzi (+250 = Top 40)

Aaron Rai (-110 = Top 40)

Davis Riley (-145 = Top 40)

Scott Stallings (-125 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Aaron Wise … First start since the Match Play and his self-imposed sabbatical to address his mental health. The decision meant that he missed the Masters, but the break had to help in the bigger picture. Choosing to reemerge at the only PGA TOUR event he’s ever won (in 2018) is sensible, but he’s also 2-for-2 at TPC Craig Ranch since it started hosting in 2021, so it’s fair to assume that he could make a little noise despite expected rust. He’s 100th in the FedExCup, but regardless of what happens the rest of the season, he’s fully exempt through 2024 by virtue of qualifying and being eligible for the TOUR Championship in 2022.

Ryan Brehm … Fourth time’s the charm. An injured triceps forced him to withdraw early after each of the last three tournaments. He’s cashed only twice in his last 11 starts and he’s 0-for-2 at TPC Craig Ranch, so there’s nothing special about the timing or the location that suggests that he’s worth even a fraction of a unit.

Vincent Whaley … Remember him? He last had our attention as a DNP at THE PLAYERS Championship, but he’s been out of action with an injured wrist for seven months. Presumably equipped with a medical extension if he needs one in 2024, the 28-year-old picked a good spot to get back inside the ropes in earnest. He’s gone T26-T25 at TPC Craig Ranch with a scoring average of 68.13. Because he’s fully exempt and poised to file a few starts this summer, long-term leagues are advised to monitor.

NOTABLE WDs

Jordan Spieth … Alerted followers in an Instagram story on Monday that he’s dealing with a sore left wrist. Obviously, this puts next week’s pursuit of the career grand slam in jeopardy.

J.J. Spaun … Content with a T27 at Quail Hollow as his last live prep for next week’s PGA Championship. Currently 59th in the FedExCup

Mark Hubbard … At 70th in PGA Championship Points at the deadline, he’s in next week’s PGA Championship. It’ll mark his second appearance in the tournament (T51, 2020).

Sam Ryder, Beau Hossler, Alex Smalley and Callum Tarren … They finished a respective 72nd, 77th, 78th and 85th in PGA Championship Points, so at least three if not all four should appear in the field for the major when it’s released. (The ranking is used to help fill the field after the top 70 automatically qualified at the conclusion of the Wells Fargo Championship.) Worst case for Tarren, he’ll open as a very high alternate.

Peter Malnati … Withdrew during his first round at Quail Hollow last week. An explanation wasn’t released. He didn’t qualify for the PGA Championship and finished 102nd in PGA Championship Points, so this should extend into at least two full weeks off.

Michael Thompson … Just 8-for-15 on the season with one top 25 (T19, Valspar) and 146th in the FedExCup. Didn’t qualify for the PGA Championship via PGA Championship Points.

Lanto Griffin … Continues to be choosy about when he plays. This is his fourth early withdrawal after a commitment deadline. He’s cashed in four of the seven starts he’s made since returning and sits 185th in the FedExCup.

Akshay Bhatia … He wasn’t in the field for long when he bowed out on Friday. The Special Temporary Member would slot 74th among members with his equivalent of FedExCup points in 11 starts.

Nicolai Højgaard … Like Bhatia, Højgaard also is a Special Temporary Member, but the Dane would be 115th among members in just four starts.

RECAP – Wells Fargo Championship

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer = Result

1 Jason Day = MC

2 Max Homa = T8

3 Xander Schauffele = 2nd

4 Rory McIlroy = T47

5 Viktor Hovland = T43

6 Jordan Spieth = MC

7 Patrick Cantlay = T21

8 Matt Fitzpatrick = T35

9 Tony Finau = T23

10 Rickie Fowler = T14

11 Tom Kim = T23

12 Sam Burns = MC

13 Collin Morikawa = MC

14 Keith Mitchell = T59

15 Cameron Young = T59

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result

Cam Davis (+300 = Top 20) = T59

J.J. Spaun (+375 = Top 20) = T27

Will Gordon = MC

S.H. Kim = T43

Denny McCarthy = T8

GOLFBET INSIDER

Team (recommended bet) = Result

*Wild Card: Justin Thomas (-225 = Top 40) = T14

*Also Starring: Sungjae Im (+105 = Top 20) = T8

*Also Starring: Tommy Fleetwood (-135 = Top 40) = T5

Also Starring: Emiliano Grillo (+300 = Top 20) = T23

Also Starring: Si Woo Kim (+100 = Top 40) = T43

Also Starring: Joel Dahmen (+140 = Top 40) = MC

*Also Starring: PARLAY: Tom Kim, Tyrrell Hatton and Sahith Theegala (+170 = All to Make the Cut) = T23/T3/T56

Tap-in: Byeong Hun An (+138 = Top 40) = MC

*Tap-in: Keegan Bradley (+100 = Top 40) = T35

*Tap-in: Wyndham Clark (-125 = Top 40) = Win

*Tap-in: Corey Conners (+175 = Top Canadian) = T8

Tap-in: Brian Harman (+100 = Top 40) = MC

Tap-in: Viktor Hovland (+110 = Top Continental European) = T43 (Stephan Jaeger = T27)

Tap-in: Shane Lowry (-125 = Top 40) = MC

Tap-in: Andrew Putnam (+188 = Top 40) = WD

Tap-in: Patrick Rodgers (+100 = Top 40) = MC

Tap-in: Sepp Straka (+260 = Top 40) = MC

Tap-in: Justin Suh (+200 = Top 40) = T59

Tap-in: Erik van Rooyen (+240 = Top South African) = MC

*Tap-in: Jimmy Walker (+300 = Top 40) = T14

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