Horses for Courses: Ludvig Åberg deserves top billing at Colonial Country Club

The PGA TOUR season continues to roll along, this time at another iconic venue, Colonial Country Club, for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are taking the week off, which leaves Ludvig Åberg as the short shot at the top of the board at +1000. Åberg has played great golf this season, with six top-eight finishes in his last seven events, but there are still some fair questions surrounding the young Swedish talent.

Given the makeup of Colonial, it feels like several different types of players can win here. Over the last five years, that has never been more true. Bombers can win. Positional players can win. Elite putters can win. But one thing has been fairly consistent over the years: Players who win or seriously contend at Colonial usually get hot with the flat stick and ride that putter for four rounds.

So what makes Colonial such a varied test?

It starts with the tree-lined fairways, doglegs and small greens. The tight corridors make it difficult for players to spray it off the tee and still survive. Precision is required. For many in the field, the doglegs and tree-lined fairways force decisions. They can try to take it over the trees, shape shots, or club down and play for position. That is part of why Colonial ranks as the fifth-toughest Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee course in the regular PGA TOUR rotation.

Measuring 7,289 yards, this par 70 is a test of driving ability and iron perfection. I wouldn’t exactly call it ball-striker’s paradise, but ball-striking will still be very important this week. Because of the small greens, around-the-green play is also important. So, instead of isolating ball-striking, I am treating this more as a tee-to-green course.

The first thing I want to look at is which golfers are entering the week with the highest SG: Tee-to-Green averages over the last 36 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last 36 rounds (via Betsperts):

• 1. Ludvig Åberg
• 2. J.J. Spaun
• 3. Ben Kohles
• 4. Keith Mitchell
• 5. Alex Smalley
• 6. Sudarshan Yellamarju

Top Nordic: Ludvig Åberg (-104 DraftKings)

Regardless of how you build your model this week, there is a very good chance Åberg is at or near the top. Everything he has done this season has been sensational.

What makes it even more impressive is how much he contended despite some poor weeks with the putter. I might be making it sound more dramatic than it is, because he has only lost strokes putting in three events all season, but some of those events were absolutely within his grasp with better putting.

At the PGA Championship, Åberg was one of the best players in the field tee-to-green, but he could not buy a putt and still finished T4. The week before at the Truist Championship, he was again one of the top tee-to-green players in the field, lost strokes putting, and still finished inside the top eight.

That is incredible and reminds me of 2022 Justin Thomas (+2350).

To his credit, it has not been a season-long putting issue. He showed at the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage that he can gain in a big way on the greens. That is what makes him dangerous this week. The putting slump is not going to last forever, and the rest of his game is elite.

Åberg's driving ability at tight courses is second to none. His irons are ridiculous, and his ability to hit small greens should translate well at Colonial. He has a very real chance to win this tournament, and at +1000, I am not exactly going out on a limb by saying that.

You can take him to finish top 10 at +110, but I prefer the Top Nordic market. It gives you a little more insurance. The players he's up against feel closer to T18 ceiling types than T10 threats, which gives the bet a lower floor. It also helps avoid the dead-heat concerns that come with placement markets.

In addition to Colonial being a strong tee-to-green course, it is also one of the toughest off-the-tee tests on TOUR. I mentioned earlier that it ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee among regular TOUR courses, so it is important to see which players are gaining the most off the tee over the last 36 rounds.

You can narrow that down to the last 12 or last 24 rounds if you want to see whose driver is heating up, but for driving distance and accuracy, I prefer the larger sample. It helps smooth out the off weeks and the outlier rounds.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee last 36 rounds

• 1. Michael Brennan
• 2. Neal Shipley
• 3. Robert MacIntyre
• 4. Keith Mitchell
• 5. Gary Woodland
• 6. Keith Mitchell

First Round Leader, Robert MacIntyre (+4300)

MacIntyre is not normally a guy I rush to back in the first-round leader market, but statistically, he deserves some consideration this week.

Over the last 20 first rounds, MacIntyre is third in the field in SG: Total and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green. What really stands out at a golf course like this is his ability off the tee. He is strong there over a full tournament sample, but especially in Round 1, where he ranks fourth in the field.

MacIntyre also brings a lethal putter. He is not a top-five putter statistically, but he can get hot, and he still grades out well enough to be viable in a volatile market like a first-round leader.

This could be a golf course that sets up well for him, and while he has the upside to pick up his third PGA TOUR win, I have more interest in isolating him in the first-round market. MacIntyre tends to play his best in tournaments where he starts on the front foot. He is also a golfer who gains more strokes as scoring conditions get tougher. In difficult conditions, he gains around 2.25 strokes on average, compared to about 0.75 strokes on easier tracks.

His approach numbers are strongest from 100 to 150 yards, but he is no slouch from 125 to 175 either. It has not been smooth sailing over the last month. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and has finished no better than T42 across his last four starts. But rewind to THE PLAYERS Championship, where he finished solo fourth, and the Valero Texas Open, where he held the 54-hole lead before finishing T2, and the upside is there.

MacIntyre may be too volatile for me at the outright price, but at +4300 in the first-round leader market, he makes sense.

It is not often that I use par-4 scoring as one of the heaviest metrics, but this week it makes sense.

There are 12 par 4s on this golf course, and unlike some of the courses we have seen over the last few weeks, the biggest separation in strokes gained should come from how players perform on those holes. It is not that the par 4s are the only scoring opportunities. It is more about the difficulty of those holes and how much they can change the complexion of a golfer's round.

That ties directly into the metrics we already talked about. Off-the-tee play is important. Approach play is important. And with 12 par 4s on the card, players who are losing ground in those areas aren’t going to contend come Sunday.

Par-4 scoring last 36 rounds

• 1. Akshay Bhatia
• 2. Gary Woodland
• 3. Ludvig Åberg
• 4. Rickie Fowler
• 5. Alex Smalley
• 6. Russell Henley

Akshay Bhatia (+4000) is the most interesting golfer on this list.

What makes him so intriguing is the upside. He won at Bay Hill, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is a tournament where you have to hit fairways and you have to putt well. What he did on the greens that week was ridiculous.

The problem is what we have seen over his last eight rounds. It has been dreadful. He has lost strokes across the board outside of putting. He has not been good off the tee, he has not been sharp on approach, and his driver has been as bad as it has been at any point in his career.

Bhatia is averaging around 295 yards off the tee, which is fine, but it is not long enough to justify hitting only 48% of fairways. If you are not long and you are not accurate, it becomes really hard to find success. The results back that up. He missed the cut at the Masters, finished T37 at the Truist Championship and missed the cut at the PGA Championship.

When you are not hitting fairways, the game just becomes more difficult. And when the irons are not sharp either, you become a vessel of bleeding strokes.

That is why Bhatia is intriguing, but also difficult to trust. We have seen the ceiling. We have seen him dominate a difficult golf course when everything clicks. I am probably not willing to bet on him this week, but I would not be surprised if he popped for a top-five or top-10 finish if he finds something off the tee.

Best Value on the Board: Alex Smalley to win (+3500 DraftKings)

When I look at Alex Smalley’s (+3500) price, the first thing I think is that it does not really make sense against this field.

At +3500, we are talking about a guy who just contended at the PGA Championship. He gained strokes tee to green, gained a ridiculous amount with the putter, and even when things went south early in a couple of rounds, he was able to stabilize instead of letting it completely unravel.

That has been the theme with Smalley lately. He finished T21 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open without having his best stuff off the tee. He followed that with a T14 at the Valero Texas Open, where he was a big-time gainer with ball striking and had a hot putter. His team finished T2 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and then he added another top-10 finish at the Cadillac Championship.

I do not think people are ready to talk about how good Smalley can be. He can do a little bit of everything. He is not overly long off the tee, but he has enough distance and enough accuracy to make it work. He is averaging more than 300 yards off the tee while hitting fairways around 62% of the time. That’ll do!

The approach numbers have been solid. I would not call them elite, but they have been good enough to contend. The real separator has been the putter. Smalley has been so hot on the greens that even when the irons are just above average, he is still giving himself a chance to make birdies.

I think the winner this week is going to be strong enough off the tee, sharp enough on approach and elite with the putter. Smalley has already shown that he can putt with the best of them, and his game is trending in the right direction.

Do not be surprised if he is near the top of the leaderboard after Thursday’s opening round. This has been more than slow and steady. Smalley has been shot out of a rocket lately, and I will back him this week at a price that feels too high for the way he is playing right now.