Bolton: Surviving means thriving at Shinnecock Hills

You can choose to make this week in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf really easy or really hard. If you opt for the latter, you do you because I do not presume to persuade you from decisions that you’re more likely to regret than cite as reasons why you won your league championship. The rest of you can come along with me.

There simply are some battles that you don’t expect to win. The U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is one of them. A “win” is survival, while an actual win is an unexpected bonus. Meanwhile, because it’s just the second stop of 12 in Segment 3, advancement is the underrated guarantee. Plan on resuming customary strategy at next week’s no-cut Travelers Championship that concludes the series of Signature Events.

While the USGA has a different power structure than it did when Shinnecock Hills last hosted the U.S. Open eight years ago, the difficulty of the course since its second stint as host in 1986 stands alone as a deterrent for fantasy gamers. In addition to the extreme difficulties in scoring in 2018, I detailed some connective tissue across the decades when it’s hosted in my Power Rankings on Monday. The numbers are eye-popping and easily enough for veteran gamers to know when not to poke the bear.

With single-digit rounds of fantasy scoring expected for many competitors, overall scoring will be at its lowest of the season. So, with only the FedExCup bonus points at the end of the grind rewarding only the most skilled of the week, your roster essentially will consist of six lottery tickets. With the Travelers Championship, The Open and three no-cut FedExCup Playoffs events all to come in Segment 3, focus on elite talent among PGA TOUR members for whom you don’t plan on burning more than three starts. And because it’s a major, loop in notable non-members who will not be making more than three starts. Then, let the dust settle and accept the outcome. If it’s a good one, raise a glass, give your thanks and move on.

Two important factors support this approach, and I’ve already mentioned the first: The U.S. Open is No. 2 in the lineup in Segment 3. Even if things go sideways like many of the hacks from the fescue at Shinnecock Hills, there will be time to recover. In fact, don’t be surprised if you hear stories of fellow gamers losing points with an unfortunate round by a starter. The likelihood is why I’ve always advised considering taking a zero in a third round on a tough track if it means saving a full start on a talent who’s more likely to contribute in a bigger way later.

I referenced the other key component in last week’s primer for Segment 3 (as part of the Fantasy Insider for the RBC Canadian Open). It’s that the winners of the first two legs of the Playoffs will receive 750 points instead of 2,000. (That’s new for 2026.) And because the TOUR Championship is scored the same as the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, the change places all three in the same vicinity as the U.S. Open (750), Travelers (700) and The Open (750). On one hand, that encourages usage of the guys who you typically would save to be used earlier, but only the Travelers steps forward as a reasonable departure from the norm.

Captain

Matt Fitzpatrick ... Here’s where things get personal. Both of my targets in my little league of Experts burned a start on the Brit at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley. I did not. While I slipped into third place, I have leverage in roster management. That’s the trade-off.

Fitzpatrick also slots No. 2 in my Power Rankings. Because I’m abstaining from the No. 1, Tommy Fleetwood, for future usage (after having burned a start last week), as well as both Scottie Scheffler (No. 3) and Rory McIlroy (No. 4) for motivations outlined above, Fitzpatrick presents as the proper fit in time and place. Yes, he’s the FedExCup leader and very well may go on to win his first FedExCup title, but I’ll still have two starts to ration down the road.

Other considerations

• Tommy Fleetwood ... Long a classic roster complement in the majors, he’s smart, especially if you didn’t exhaust a start in Canada. Runner-up at Shinnecock Hills in 2018.
• Cameron Young ... The series of feel-good stories this year would continue for this New Yorker in New York, but he’s a strong choice objectively. Also hits like Fitzpatrick as a next-tier piece who can help cover a stop like this one when you’re saving starts for the usual suspects.

Rounding out the roster

Predictably loaded with roster-saving non-members for the major, I particularly love the impact that Reed can have. His short game alone is worth a spot, but the kicker is that he finished fourth here in 2018, so you know the player plays.

My starters

• Matt Fitzpatrick (C)
• Tyrrell Hatton
• Jon Rahm
• Patrick Reed

My bench

• Cameron Young (1)
• Xander Schauffele (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• J.J. Spaun ... The defending champion admitted this week that he struggled in overcoming unrealistic (and unnecessary) self-imposed expectations as the U.S. Open champion at times. He snapped out of his funk with a victory at the Valero Texas Open and has chased it with a pair of top 10s among five top 25s, but he missed the cut in both of the first two majors. He’s lightly owned in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf (5.7%), but this is just a reminder to new gamers that he has no course history despite last year’s win.

• Viktor Hovland ... I expected his out-of-nowhere solo third in Canada to attract more than 7.9% of gamers who have saved him on roster at last check, but that still slots him 17th-most owned. For as long as he’s been on the PGA TOUR, I’ve half-joked that he needs to lead fields in hitting greens so as not to rely on his below-average short game. Well, the irony today is that his approach game is very average in frequency, while he’s tidied up his game around the greens. Still, he just missed the cut at the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, where there’s some crossover with Shinnecock Hills in their challenges greenside, but I don’t hate him as a contrarian in DFS because he’s fresh off leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green at TPC Toronto.
• Shane Lowry ... Like Hovland, Lowry is a better fit in DFS where his short game and grit offer more promise, thus inflating his value relative to cost. However, he hasn’t seen the top of a leaderboard since a co-runner-up at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches three-and-a-half months ago. And while it’d be unfair to penalize him for missing the cut here in 2018, it doesn’t help.
• Bryson DeChambeau ... From the automatic to the speculative, he’s 0-for-2 and without a round of par or better in the majors this year. I’ve always bought into his constant tinkering as a process, but that requires a counterbalancing function in his preparation for competition. So, he’s layered extra work on top of his pursuit of perfection. It’s just too much to endorse elevating expectations at Shinnecock Hills.

Returning to competition

• Brooks Koepka … Opted out of the RBC Canadian Open before his final round with lingering discomfort in the last two fingers on his left hand. He co-led with an opening 64 but sat T32 after three rounds, so that position may have contributed to the decision with the U.S. Open on deck. Shinnecock Hills is the site of his second of two victories in this major, so he’s the “defending champion” on the course. While expected to pierce the turf on Thursday, he should be providing an update when he meets with the media on Tuesday afternoon.

• Jake Knapp ... If he’s able to give it a go, it’ll be the first time in five tries. A sprained left thumb and injured wrist thwarted appearances in the PGA Championship and each of the last three Signature Events. The U.S. Open would mark his first start since the RBC Heritage two months ago. In a vacuum, he’s a threat and a short-lister for the Power Rankings. In reality, his owners hope that he doesn’t find the knee-high fescue at Shinnecock Hills. For observation only.

Membership matters

Jackson Koivun ... You had a feeling earlier this year that if Auburn University won another Division I Men’s Golf Championship, he’d accept PGA TOUR membership after his junior year via PGA TOUR University Accelerated, a jump that he deferred a year ago. That’s exactly what happened. So, the U.S. Open will serve as his finale as an amateur, not to mention as the long-running top-rated amateur in the world. (To play off the exemption as the 2025 Mark H. McCormack Medal winner, he’s required to retain his amateur status.) He’s then poised to debut as a professional at the John Deere Classic in two weeks. By doing so, he’s immediately a PGA TOUR member eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs, and he’s fully exempt on the circuit through 2027.

Now, keeper leaguers drafted this guy last year because of his promise, and good luck finding him available in salary leagues where ownership is unique, but now he has to go out and prove that the investment and patience were worth the space and time. Regardless, it should be a fun run for the 21-year-old who also could play and/or perform well enough this season to qualify as a PGA TOUR rookie. If he does, he’ll be added to my Rookie Ranking on X.

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