Had we been thinking at the start of Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, we should have figured out a way to open a market for the over-under of Scottie Scheffler's ownership percentage for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. After all, with two majors and four Signature Events across the last eight tournaments of this phase, with his devotion to a hometown stop and that we’re limited to selecting him only three times, it’d have been a fun experience.

For the sake of the exercise, let’s play, anyway. Take a guess at his ownership percentage as of midday Tuesday and try to resist reading ahead for the answer. I’ve put some space in between just in case.

While gamers don’t think exclusively about ownership percentages for future tournaments, how we divvy our starts for a stud like the defending champion at TPC Craig Ranch is a reflection of plans in the aggregate. We’re influenced by things like beefed-up FedExCup bonus points at premier events, and where it makes sense that he’ll rise to the challenge if they’re not one in the same. Despite his overarching dominance, what can get lost in the calculus for Scheffler is “best fit.” It’s part of what influences us to complete rosters every other week, so it should remain a priority when he’s also an option.

If you’re chasing and still have at least one start remaining for Scheffler, you’ve likely assumed that your deficit isn’t as large as it is, whatever it is. It’s a lot like the format for The RSM Classic, the tournament played across two courses with different pars and during which it doesn’t make sense to judge one’s performance until after every entrant has played each course once. Similarly, because no two rosters are the same week over week in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, only the position at the end of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday that concludes Segment 2 is what matters. Leads and deficits in the interim are merely snapshots of the ebb and the flow that we all experience.

If you have exactly one start remaining for Scheffler, then your only question is when to burn it.

When he won here last year, THE CJ CUP preceded the PGA Championship, whereas it’s the week immediately after this year’s edition of that major. If that concerns you, stop it. Not only is he a force every time he pegs it, but you need only to go back to the 2024 Travelers Championship to find an example of a victory in the week immediately following a major. In fact, it was during that three-week sequence that he went win-T41-win with the U.S. Open sandwiched in between victories at the Memorial and the Travelers Championship.

The reason you pause even for his hometown event is because TPC Craig Ranch was redesigned since he posed for pictures with the trophy last year. What was the second and larger phase of the project began just three days after his title. Meanwhile, he’ll be the two-time defending champion at Muirfield Village Golf Club in two weeks, where a larger distribution of FedExCup points will be distributed.

Either way, you can’t lose, so review your targets’ starts remaining for Scheffler and consider those possibilities. That will help you determine when you should pounce. But if you do at TPC Craig Ranch, you’ll join a cohort currently consisting of only 22.1% of rosters saved, seventh-most among all golfers.

Captain

Scottie Scheffler … Duh. I am out of starts, however.

Other considerations

• Si Woo Kim ... The No. 2 in my Power Rankings. It’d be nice if he came roaring in with the kind of form that yielded eight top-15 finishes this year, but it’s also easy to feel the need to be greedy if Scheffler isn’t an option. Still, Kim is another local and you know he’d love to take down his pal in their backyard.

• Jordan Spieth ... The No. 3 in the Power Rankings is the most-owned, and as much as instinct suggests that this is a no-brainer, it’s been tough to trust him. However, he’s also back home and in the tournament in which he debuted 16 years ago. That was two courses and one renovation ago, but it’s where he’s most comfortable. Success at TPC Craig Ranch doesn’t hurt, but it’s the lack of someone else’s strong case that lifts him into contention here.

Rounding out the roster

It’s possible that the weather may trigger a change because feeling confident about having four starters make the cut is the priority. It could get ugly if that objective fails on top of not having the option to play Scheffler.

My starters

• Sungjae Im
• Si Woo Kim (C)
• Brooks Koepka
• Jordan Spieth

My bench

• Blades Brown (1)
• Ryo Hisatsune (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Matti Schmid ... He’s populating almost one-quarter of rosters saved, which has to be a record for the German. However, as I stated in the Power Rankings in which you’ll find him at No. 13, despite his profile as a streaky player fresh off a career-best T4 in a major, he’s a candidate for a letdown, especially since that T4 punched tickets into the 2026 U.S. Open and 2027 Masters.
• Michael Thorbjornsen ... Trap. I see the constant support as he’s been on the bubble of gaining entry regularly into Signature Events, but the results don’t support the fervor. Just two top-30 finishes in his last nine starts. And if you wanted to make a decision based on his relative value at THE CJ CUP, consider that he missed the cuts at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and the Valero Texas Open over this stretch.

• Tony Finau ... He continues to generate interest, mostly likely among casual gamers familiar with him, but he failed to qualify for the PGA Championship for the first time since he splashed on the PGA TOUR in 2015. The only juice he presents is that he’s cashed in eight straight starts upon arrival, but just twice for a top 25, and both of those were mere 18th-place finishes.
• Wyndham Clark ... He’s the last of the golfers with an ownership percentage in double digits, but like Finau, it’s likely boosted by the overall success of his career and not because of current form that isn’t strong. What’s more, because of his firepower that does have value in long-term formats and in DFS, he’s more likely to miss the cut. Most concerning is how his putting has regressed measurably and remarkably.

Returning to competition

• Michael Thompson … Remember this guy? The two-time PGA TOUR winner is committed to the Korn Ferry Tour’s Visit Knoxville Open this week. He’s now 41 years of age and hasn’t pegged it in sanctioned competition since May of 2023. Injuries to his wrist and left shoulder have sidelined him since. As a result, he’s equipped with 15 starts via a Major Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR. During a season in which membership has contracted, he could be of immediate midseason value if he’s able to return to the big leagues, so keep an eye on him.

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