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4H AGO

Bolton: Strategy shifts as Segment 2 opens at Valspar Championship

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Jacob Bridgeman sinks 41-foot birdie putt on No. 14 at THE PLAYERS

Jacob Bridgeman sinks 41-foot birdie putt on No. 14 at THE PLAYERS

    Written by Rob Bolton

    Survive and advance.

    That’s occasionally the rallying cry on a weekly basis in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, but it’s been echoed regularly recently since Scottie Scheffler has slumped relative to his greatness, the moment Rory McIlroy succumbed to back spasms at the midpoint of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and when Collin Morikawa had to call it quits after completing just one hole of THE PLAYERS Championship last week. All are popular captains when they tee it up and especially in the last two weeks of Segment 1.

    But that’s over. You survived.

    This week’s Valspar Championship marks our advance into Segment 2 of the fantasy season. It’s the first of 11 stops through the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday in the first week of June. After the first five, we all are treated to a midseason breather when the Zurich Classic of New Orleans takes center stage – there’s no fantasy action for the team competition – and then the pedal will be down for the remainder.

    Speaking of which, although the FedExCup Playoffs anchor Segment 3 as usual, this is a perfect time for the reminder that FedExCup points no longer are quadrupled in that series. The PGA TOUR announced in mid-January that the points distribution for each of the first two legs of the playoffs would match that of THE PLAYERS and the majors. So, instead of 200 FedExCup bonus points being rewarded to the winner in fantasy, or 400 if he’s your captain, those values will be 75 and 150, respectively. (In alignment with the change, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf also will use the revised distribution for the TOUR Championship.)

    While starts for all golfers will be reset to three for Segment 3, those of us who play the long game may be influenced to act defensively or aggressively sooner than later because it will be easier to defend position and more difficult to sling shot around your targets at the finish line than it used to be. To be certain, roster management in Segment 3 will remain a critical component of your plan, but slide the likely impact of this change to the front burner of your strategy as you launch into Segment 2.

    When considering the slate of tournaments during this phase, keep in mind that the next four Signature Events and first two majors are included. The Signature Events award 700 FedExCup points to their winners, while majors award 750 to their champions, but the greater distribution down the leaderboard should influence decisions in the interim and serve as a tiebreaker in some situations.

    For example, the 10 FedExCup bonus points awarded for a solo sixth-place finish at Innisbrook Resort equals what a solo 14th-place finish would reward in a Signature Events or a two-way T14 would at a major. Solo sixth at either of the last two would yield 28 FedExCup bonus points. So, before you go all in on household names in fields like this week’s, consider saving as many as two of your starts for the usual suspects based on where they can do more damage.

    That brings us to "Future Possibilities" below.

    Beginning this week, the section is taking on an updated look. Instead of listing all notables for whom you might be encouraged to burn more than three starts in Segment 2, only those for whom the current host course has proven to be a source of success will be cited every week. So, it’s why only four golfers are shown below for the Valspar contested on the Copperhead Course.

    Furthermore, all tournaments with their individual rankings per golfer will remain visible throughout the segment, but completed tournaments will be crossed off as a visual aid. Tournaments will continue to be listed chronologically for all golfers.

    Because the Cadillac Championship, a Signature Event hosted by Trump National Doral Miami’s Blue Monster, and the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club will be contested at courses not played recently, those tournaments will be omitted in Future Possibilities, so treat both as wild cards where you will want to load up on the best of the best.

    Captain

    Jacob Bridgeman … While the board favorite is Xander Schauffele, I’m hanging my visor on the No. 1 in my Power Rankings. In short, Bridgeman can’t miss this year, and I want a sharper angle to attack from my position of pursuit among the experts. And while his original plan was to peg it in all four legs of the Florida Swing, he was able to rest the opening week immediately after his breakthrough victory at The Genesis Invitational, so I trust that he’s not gassed.


    Jacob Bridgeman hits 152-yard approach to 3 feet, sets up birdie on No. 15 at THE PLAYERS

    Jacob Bridgeman hits 152-yard approach to 3 feet, sets up birdie on No. 15 at THE PLAYERS


    Other considerations

    • Xander Schauffele ... You will not find the No. 2 in my Power Rankings in my lineup below for the reasons listed above, but if you’re chasing by a considerable margin, he’s your best bet to take the biggest bite out of your deficit, so act now. While data on what percentage of rosters have designated him as the captain is unknown, he’s the highest owned at 65.5% at last check.
    • Justin Thomas ... With a T8 at THE PLAYERS in the books and because the Valspar slots as his No. 1 in Future Possibilities, he presents best for front-runners as both offense and defense to open Segment 2. Because I’m forever on the record as a conservative gamer in the long-term, I’d like to see him log a little more time before trusting his health. He deserves his slot at No. 4 in the Power Rankings, as well as a spot on my opening bench, but I’m going to slow-play him in this role.

    Justin Thomas hits 130-yard tee shot to 12 feet, sets up birdie on No. 17 at THE PLAYERS

    Justin Thomas hits 130-yard tee shot to 12 feet, sets up birdie on No. 17 at THE PLAYERS


    Rounding out the roster

    With a hearty slab of talent atop this field, and with all starts reset, it’s smartest to rely on guys who have cashed and thrived at Copperhead before. I’ll use the captain function to make a dent.

    My starters

    • Jacob Bridgeman (C)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick
    • Viktor Hovland
    • Sahith Theegala

    My bench

    • Corey Conners (1)
    • Justin Thomas (2)

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

    • Patrick Cantlay ... Registering on 11% of rosters saved, he’s a popular choice. That’s no surprise, but note that he’s omitted from Future Possibilities below because this tournament doesn’t resonate as a smart investment. There are three tournaments to come at which he’ll make sense, so remain patient. That shouldn’t be too hard given that he’s connected for only two top 30s in six starts this season, anyway.
    • Jordan Spieth ... The 2015 Valspar champion also finished T3 in 2023, so he has the receipts to support an ownership percentage pushing 17% based on course success alone. However, his round-to-round inconsistency isn’t for the fate of heart despite a trio of top 25s this season. And like Cantlay, Spieth doesn’t appear in Future Possibilities for which I have six other tournaments in the pipeline as reasonable targets. Remember, he plays some of his best golf in his home state of Texas where there are four stops to come in Segment 2.
    • Ben Griffin ... Straight strugglin’. He populates almost 6% of the saved rosters, but there’s an argument that even that dedication is too high. After opening the season with an extension of form with which he concluded 2025, he’s gone 3-for-5 without a top 25. Both missed cuts were in the last two tournaments. His metrics off the tee and on approach are not indicative of the kind of precision that yielded three victories last year, so there’s enough evidence to believe that it’s not a speedbump. Let him figure things out before revisiting.
    • Patrick Rodgers ... He won’t be a common own in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf but DFSers might be keen on making room given that he’s 8-for-8 on the season with top 25s the last two weeks. However, Copperhead has not been a source of success throughout his career. He’s cashed just twice in seven tries, neither for a top 35.

    Future possibilities

    NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 2 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.

    • Corey Conners ... Valspar (5); Valero (1); Masters (2); Heritage (4); Truist (3)
    • Viktor Hovland ... Valspar (2, defending); Masters (3); Charles Schwab (4); Memorial (1)
    • Xander Schauffele ... Valspar (3); Masters (1); Heritage (4); Truist (2); Memorial (5)
    • Justin Thomas ... Valspar (1); Masters (3); Heritage (2); Truist (4)

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