Odds Outlook: Xander Schauffele opens as favorite at Valspar Championship
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Xander Schauffele sinks 21-foot birdie putt on No. 18 at THE PLAYERS
Written by Mike Glasscott
The final event of the Florida Swing, the Valspar Championship, brings a new favorite to the top of the odds board at FanDuel Sportsbook. Without Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy in the field at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, two-time major champion Xander Schauffele (+1100) has the edge over 2025 event winner and defending champion Viktor Hovland (+1600) for top billing at FanDuel Sportsbook.
After starting the season stumbling through the gears, Schauffele (+1100), the San Diegan, earned his first top-10 payday at The Genesis Invitational (T7) before heading east to Florida. Teeing it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, he cashed a check for T24 before heading to TPC Sawgrass. He opened 69-65 and played in the final group on Saturday at THE PLAYERS Championship, but shot 74. His 69 on Sunday secured a paycheck for a solo-third finish, his third podium in nine starts at THE PLAYERS. Schauffele led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green at TPC Sawgrass and tied for fifth in greens in regulation. He should be comfortable this week at the Copperhead Course (par-71; 7,352 yards). In three previous starts, he posted 71 or better in 10 of 12 loops and cashed T12, T5 and T12 in three of the last four years.
Defending champion Viktor Hovland (+1600) arrived on property north of Tampa in 2025, chillier than the northern winds that can blow through the area this time of year. The Norwegian missed the cut in three consecutive events before posting four rounds of 70 or better and defeated Justin Thomas (+2000) by a shot on Sunday to win for the seventh time on the PGA TOUR. Hovland, who opened his season on TOUR with a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open, cashed T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship in his previous two starts. Leading the field in SG: Around the Green and ranking second in Scrambling, his short game (second inSG: Putting, fifth in Scrambling) was the key to lifting the trophy last March.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1900) owned a one-shot lead standing on No. 17 tee Sunday afternoon at THE PLAYERS Championship before Cameron Young (not entered) hit two of the greatest pressure shots in recent memory at TPC Sawgrass to finish birdie-par and nip the 2022 U.S. Open champion by a shot. The Englishman was unlucky to see his final drive on No. 18 skid through the fairway and into the pine straw. He ranked T1 in fairways hit and second SG: Tee-to-Green for the week. After posting four rounds of 70 or better for his third result of T15 or better of 2026, he should factor again this week on a track that requires power and precision from tee to green. He will make his first start since falling short of the weekend in 2023, but he posted four rounds in the 60s for T5 in 2022.
Investors will remember Jacob Bridgeman (+2000) busting onto the scene at the 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches before he shared the 54-hole lead at the Valspar Championship. Playing with Hovland, he posted 69, his fourth round of 70 or better, and took home third-place money in his second visit. In 2026, he won The Genesis Invitational, holding off Rory McIlroy from the final group. He became the first player to open their account on TOUR by winning a Signature Event. Returning to Florida, he picked up T18 money at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and shared fifth last week at THE PLAYERS Championship. In seven starts in 2026, he cashed T18 or better seven times.

Jacob Bridgeman uses 72nd hole approach and par save to win The Genesis
Justin Thomas (+2000) returned to tournament golf at The Arnold Palmer Invitational after five-plus months on the sidelines after back surgery. Making his tournament debut in 2026, he ground out a pair of rounds at 79 to miss the weekend at Bay Hill. The 2021 champion at TPC Sawgrass flipped the script in four rounds last weekend, including 68-68 to open, to share eighth place. Ranking in the top 10 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting, two statistical categories of importance again this week at the Copperhead Course. Unlike TPC Sawgrass, there is only water on nine of the 18 holes, and the rough will be less than four inches, making it easier to navigate missed fairways. Making his sixth consecutive appearance and ninth overall, Thomas owns four top-10 paydays, including three in the last four visits. Cashing seven paydays from nine visits, he’s earned T18 or better money six times.
Jordan Spieth (+2200), the 2015 champion, tied for third place in the 2023 event, his third top-10 result in eight tries, returns for his ninth visit. Hitting only half of the fairways at THE PLAYERS, he found a way to rank eighth in SG: Approach. Paydays of T12 at The Genesis Invitational and T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational are the highlights of his 2026 season to this point. All five paydays from six 2026 events resulted in T32 or better money.

Jordan Spieth hits 125-yard approach to 6 feet, sets up birdie on No. 7 at THE PLAYERS
Akshay Bhatia (+2200), the man who is a perfect 3-0 in PGA TOUR playoffs in his career, could not back up his victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a win at TPC Sawgrass. Cashing T13 at THE PLAYERS, he was second in SG: Approach and sixth SG: Off-the-Tee and produced four rounds below par. Returning for the fourth time, he makes his first appearance since T17 in 2024, his only weekend result. On TOUR this season, he cashed five paydays of T16 or better.

Akshay Bhatia pars first playoff hole to win Arnold Palmer
The 2025 winner at Colonial Country Club in the Charles Schwab Challenge, Ben Griffin (+2500), garners attention this week. The three-time winner in calendar 2025 has not replicated his magic in seven starts in 2026. He arrives after playing only two rounds at both Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. His best result of 2026 was T19 at the season-opening Sony Open in Hawaii.
The more challenging an event, the more Brooks Koepka (+2500) dials in his focus. The Valspar Championship ranked in the top eight of hardest courses played on TOUR in six of the last eight editions. Making his first visit since closing with 65 for T12 in 2022, the five-time major champion is building momentum from T9 at the Cognizant Classic and T13 at THE PLAYERS. His ball-striking is not what is holding him back; when he finds a putter he likes, watch out.

Brooks Koepka hits 91-yard approach to 3 feet, sets up birdie on No. 1 at THE PLAYERS
The last time Patrick Cantlay (+2500) visited Palm Harbor in 2017, he fell one shot short of a playoff and cashed solo second. He returns in the 2026 season searching for his first top 10 of the year and first victory since the 2022 BMW Championship in the FedExCup Playoffs. The Bermuda grass of Florida did not provide the jump-start to his season. He missed the cut at Bay Hill and took home a check for T32 at THE PLAYERS.
Past winners of the Valspar Championship entered, but not listed above:
- 2024 Peter Malnati (+40000)
- 2023 Taylor Moore* (+6000)
- 2017 Adam Hadwin* (+10000)
- 2013 Kevin Streelman* (+40000)
- 2011 Gary Woodland* (+10000)
*First TOUR victory
Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel:
- +2700: J.J. Spaun
- +3000: Nicolai Højgaard, Corey Conners
- +3300: Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala
- +3500: Nick Taylor
- +4000: Taylor Pendrith, Ryo Hisatsune
- +4500: Davis Thompson, Rasmus Højgaard
- +5000: Wyndham Clark
- +5500: Alex Smalley, Aaron Rai, Thorbjørn Olesen, Matt McCarty
- +6000: Pierceson Coody, Max Greyserman, Ricky Castillo, Max Homa
- +7000: Kristoffer Reitan, Austin Smotherman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- +7500: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Max McGreevy, Marco Penge, Mac Meissner
- +8000: John Parry, Stephan Jaeger, Rico Hoey, Tony Finau, Jordan Smith, Blades Brown, Bud Cauley
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