Whether Shane Lowry’s late implosion at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches foiled a celebration as your captain or threw you an unexpected bone as an owner of someone other than Lowry at the helm, you arrived at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard with a solid plan for the final two stops in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. The only missing piece was the size of your margin as a front-runner or deficit in pursuit of your primary target. But even then, that’s unlikely to impact how you manage this fortnight of top-shelf competition.

Only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy should populate your short list of choices to be your captain at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge this week and at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship that concludes Segment 1 next week. While the strategy that either should be your captain every time he plays, both present as sensational choices for both tournaments. It’s a nice problem to have, even as you’ve managed your roster accordingly.

Because you can choose only one to be your captain, the hard part is determining which guy to designate now and then. Bay Hill presents as more challenging; it’s also more predictable, whereas the line between success and failure at TPC Sawgrass is distinct, but it has rewarded both superstars. They are the only two winners of the last three editions of the PGA TOUR’s flagship event.

If you have exactly one start remaining for both, and you subscribe to K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple, Stupid), then there are no wrong answers. Flip a coin and let ‘em ride. You won’t get an argument from me. However, if you need something of substance to influence your decision, Scheffler still is the top dog. Yes, he’s stumbled out of the last three gates, but he’s also responded every time like the top-ranked player in the world should. And because there’s nowhere to hide at Bay Hill, actual scoring should be higher than at TPC Sawgrass. That means that pars will be of greater value, so it’ll be easier to sustain a lofty position on the leaderboard.

The size of the fields also matters. Bay Hill hosts 72, while TPC Sawgrass is prepped for 120. Playing better than another 48 golfers objectively is more difficult, and with slightly easier opportunities to score next week, pars can feel like net-bogeys at times relative to others.

Put it all together and my advice is to burn Scheffler at Bay Hill where he’s a two-time winner, and then slot two-time PLAYERS champion McIlroy in his title defense at TPC Sawgrass. That’s not precisely how I’m approaching it, so keep reading to learn how my situation might work for you.

Captain

Rory McIlroy … As I explained in Expert Picks, I have two starts remaining for him and only one for Scheffler. Because I’d love to have the option for either as my captain next week, McIlroy gets the nod this week even though he’s No. 2 in my Power Rankings.

A larger number of FedExCup bonus points also are up for grabs at the third Signature Event (70 to the winner at Bay Hill) and THE PLAYERS (75), so the only reason to deviate from either this early in the season is if you’re out of starts for one and have just one remaining for the other.

Other considerations

• Scottie Scheffler ... Justification for the No. 1 in my Power Rankings is explained above.
• Collin Morikawa ... So you’re out of starts on McIlroy and/or Scheffler. That’s OK. It happens. It’s not like either is guaranteed to win, anyway. Enter Morikawa, who is No. 3 in the Power Rankings and back for redemption after coughing away the 54-hole lead a year ago. Oh, and with his recent drought-extinguisher at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and with his first child on the way, the stars are aligned best for him to play spoiler.

Rounding out the roster

Despite all the attention devoted to Scheffler and McIlroy, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is a team game, so you have at least four other choices from a deep field. Round scoring will be muted and won’t generate much churn, so short of bonus points for daily low rounds, meaningful impact largely will be limited to your head-to-head battle for cuts made and FedExCup bonus points for your starters in the final round.

My starters

• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Rory McIlroy (C)
• Collin Morikawa

My bench

• Jake Knapp (1)
• Scottie Scheffler (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands a pause and why.

• Chris Gotterup ... The PGA TOUR’s only multiple winner this season arrives with a T37 at Pebble Beach and a missed cut at Riviera in his last two starts. He’s a force but he’s also new to these stages. This is his debut at Bay Hill.

• Si Woo Kim ... Despite a recent torrid run of form dating back to the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs, he presents as a guy who can make the cut but not much more. He didn’t crack the top 30 in the first two Signature Events and he’s hung up only one top 25 in 10 tries at Bay Hill. Granted, it was last year (T19), but it’s not a track on which we can rely on something special.
• Viktor Hovland ... Given his cachet, we should be rationing starts for him instead of accepting that we’re unlikely to burn all three in Segment 1. Ended 2025 on a high and flipped the calendar with a pair of strong starts worldwide, but recorded either his worst or second-worst finishes at the first two Signature Events.
• Min Woo Lee ... Populating over 8% of rosters saved, he’s been selected least among the guys singled out here, but all are inside the top 17 in ownership percentage, so there’s a lot of action to consider with all four. He’s also been on a tear with significantly better results in the first two Signature Events, but he’s just 1-for-4 at Bay Hill with a T44 in 2024. If this field were not as rich, then he’d make some sense as a contrarian based solely on recent form, but there are bona fide horses who also have been firing on all cylinders of late.

Returning to competition

• Sungjae Im ... He appeared in my Sleepers on Tuesday where he was listed at +250 at DraftKings for a Top 20. Well, my endorsement had such an impact that he’s now longer (+270 at last check). An injured wrist delayed his season debut. With treatment and rest, it’s obviously a positive that he’s ready to go, especially since there’s zero reason to rush back. With that angle and a phenomenal record at Bay Hill, he’s smartest for bettors and in DFS.
• Justin Thomas ... When my full-membership fantasy ranking was published in December, I slotted him 42nd. While historically low, it was a reflection of an expectation for him to miss considerable time after having a microdiscectomy in November 2025. He’s in the prime of his career at 32 years of age, but that’s also right around when the body starts to require more time to recover from even the most innocuous of maladies, regardless of whether you’re a professional athlete or a weekend warrior. To be certain, everyone is different, but to return inside four months from that surgery is aggressive. The adage that you never can return too late rushes to mind. Consider that when Kevin Chappell had his microdiscectomy in 2018, he also was 32 years old but missed 10 months of action. Lanto Griffin was 34 and sat out six months after his procedure in 2022. And while Will Zalatoris isn’t the best comp due to his series of back problems, he was only 26 when he had his surgery, and then took seven months before resuming his career at the time. So, it’s great news for full-season games right now that Thomas is back, but hold your breath that this uncharted territory doesn’t yield a setback, because there are comparisons to that, too.

• Nicholas Lindheim ... Speaking of back injuries, this guy hasn’t been able to catch a break with his chronic issue. It limited him to only one live round in all of 2025, but he’s giving it a go at the Puerto Rico Open this week. Now 41 years of age and left with six starts on a medical extension, he still has a little runway to turn it into something, but limit him to spot starts in DFS if he shows a glimmer.

Future possibilities

NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 1 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.

• Ludvig Åberg ... Arnold Palmer (3)
• Keegan Bradley ... Arnold Palmer (1)
• Corey Conners ... Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (2)
• Matt Fitzpatrick ... Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (2)
• Tommy Fleetwood ... Arnold Palmer (2); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Brian Harman ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Russell Henley ... Arnold Palmer (1; defending)
• Viktor Hovland ... Arnold Palmer (4); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Sungjae Im ... Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (5)
• Si Woo Kim ... THE PLAYERS (3)
• Shane Lowry ... Arnold Palmer (2); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Robert MacIntyre ... Arnold Palmer (3); THE PLAYERS (2)
• Hideki Matsuyama ... Arnold Palmer (5); THE PLAYERS (4)
• Rory McIlroy ... Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (2; defending)
• Collin Morikawa ... Arnold Palmer (4); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Xander Schauffele ... THE PLAYERS (4)
• Scottie Scheffler ... Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (3)
• Sepp Straka ... THE PLAYERS (2)
• Justin Thomas ... Arnold Palmer (4)
• Cameron Young ... Arnold Palmer (4)

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