Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favored over Rory McIlroy to win FedExCup

The 20th FedExCup Playoffs conclude at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings have made it to the TOUR Championship and will have an opportunity to take home the $10 million first-place check and add their name to the list of players who have won the FedExCup. Defending champion Tommy Fleetwood would become the first player ever to win the FedExCup in back-to-back seasons, but, as usual, Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For the second straight year, all 30 TOUR Championship participants will start the tournament on even footing. The player with the lowest 72-hole score this week in Atlanta will win the FedExCup and be recognized as the season-long champion.

For the fifth consecutive season, Scheffler (+350) arrives at East Lake as the FedExCup points leader and oddsmakers’ favorite. With another victory this week, the 2024 FedExCup champion would join Tiger Woods (2007, 2009) and Rory McIlroy (2016, 2019, and 2022) as the only multiple FedExCup champions. A 21-time winner over the last five years, the world No. 1 kicked off the FedExCup Playoffs by winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship, his second victory of the season. Only three players have more wins this season. He’ll look to rebound from a T12 at the BMW Championship, where he was slowed by hand, foot and mouth disease en route to his worst finish since the Memorial in early June. Making his seventh appearance at East Lake, he earned five top-10 paydays in his previous six visits and produced a scoring average of 67.71.

East Lake Golf Club has provided the happiest of season-ending events three times for McIlroy (+950), the second choice on the odds board. A 30-time winner on the PGA TOUR, McIlroy needed a week to knock off the rust in Memphis (66th of 68 players) before nearly running down and passing Wyndham Clark last week in St. Louis. Finishing alone in third after four rounds in the 60s, he squared only five bogeys all week, suggesting he found what he was missing. Raising the FedExCup this week would be his fourth title in 11 seasons. Nobody in the field has more rounds of experience (48 rounds) or championship moments at East Lake.

Xander Schauffele (+1500), making his first start in Atlanta since 2024, won the event on his 2017 debut, but he did not have enough points to win the overall FedExCup championship. Except for missing the TOUR Championship last year (ranked No. 42 in 2025), he has finished 15th or better in the final FedExCup rankings each year of his career. He posted finished third or better for 72-hole score at East Lake four times since 2019. A victory this week would be his first since the Baycurrent Classic in Japan last October.

Ludvig Åberg (+1600) posted four rounds of 70 or better in St. Louis but found the penalty areas four times at the BMW Championship. His normally strong ball-striking kept him out of the top 10 for the third consecutive event. His red-hot putter, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week, could not make up for his below-average play from tee-to-green. Making his third visit to East Lake in three years, the Swede should be comfortable on Zoysia for the third week in a row. Returning to TifEagle Bermuda on the greens will test the heat in his flatstick. His next top-10 payday at the TOUR Championship will be his first.

The quintet of players opening at +1800 on Monday includes three multiple winners and a trio of Presidents Cup qualifiers. Wyndham Clark (+1800) built a five-shot lead through 54 holes before staring down and knocking out McIlroy to win the BMW Championship on Sunday. Earning his third win of the season, he pulls level with Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800) and Chris Gotterup (+2200) for the most on TOUR in 2026. Fitzpatrick, who basked in the sunshine of early spring with victories at the Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, and Zurich Classic of New Orleans, also hit the podium at THE PLAYERS Championship (second), RBC Canadian Open (second), and Genesis Scottish Open (T3) to secure the second-best points total of the regular season.

Neither Clark nor Fitzpatrick qualified for East Lake in 2025.

Cameron Young (+1800), a two-time winner in 2026, did not crack the top 30 in the first two FedExCup Playoffs events. His 20th event of the season will provide the biggest payday opportunity and a chance to notch his third win of the year. At the 2025 event, his second time qualifying, he roasted East Lake for 62 in the second round and finished T4. Already locked into the Presidents Cup, his sole focus can be winning the biggest prize on the PGA TOUR.

Sam Burns (+1800), and his strong but winless summer, will embrace the return to Bermuda on the greens this week at East Lake. The 54-hole leader at The Open finished third and followed with another podium finish, T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship to start the Playoffs. Last week, he lost strokes on the greens in three of four rounds at the BMW Championship and slipped to T28. This will be his sixth consecutive appearance at East Lake. His 2025 total of 13 under for T7 is the best result of them all. He’s figuring it out.

Collin Morikawa (+1800) barged his way into contention on Sunday but could not take advantage of sharp iron play to hit the podium. He played the par-4 holes in 10 under, second best on the week, and will take his best result (T4) since mid-June and that momentum to Atlanta. Earning a trip to East Lake for the seventh consecutive season, the ball-striking machine lit the place on fire in 2024, posting 22-under across 72 holes, for the best total of the week. The winner at Pebble Beach in February opened with 61 here in 2023, his best round of 24. Over six years, he has posted a round of 65 or better in five events.

Past FedExCup champions in the field:

• 2025: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
• 2023: Viktor Hovland (+2700)
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
• 2018: Justin Rose (+4500)

Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the field at the TOUR Championship, via FanDuel:

• +2200: Si Woo Kim
• +3000: Russell Henley
• +3300: Hideki Matsuyama
• +4000: J.J. Spaun, Gary Woodland
• +4500: Ryan Gerard, Tom Kim, Robert MacIntyre, Jacob Bridgeman
• +5500: Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott
• +6500: Alex Smalley, Kristoffer Reitan
• +10000: Ryan Fox, Akshay Bhatia, Alex Fitzpatrick
  

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