Running with Rick: East Lake bona fides separate TOUR Championship contenders

The PGA TOUR season has been whittled down to just 30 golfers battling at East Lake Golf Club for the ultimate season-long prize — the FedExCup. Everyone in the field has earned the right to tee it up, and all golfers will begin at even par, giving all 30 a chance to claim the top spot.

East Lake Golf Club will play defense this week, as it has every year since 2004. With that much consistent history, we have a very good idea of how the course will play and how it will both reward and punish the best players on TOUR.

First and foremost, this course rewards long hitters. At 7,440 yards as a par 70, there is really no way around it. Bombing it off the tee is a big advantage, as club speed will come in handy in a variety of ways. Hitting long drives is just one half of the equation, as club speed is also highly correlated with success out of the thick rough that will be ever-present this week. From a purely statistical perspective, there is only one other course on the PGA TOUR schedule where high club speed is more strongly correlated with success than it is here at East Lake.

While Scottie Scheffler sits atop the odds board, there is no shortage of players who enter with strong enough form to consider in the outright market this week. Rory McIlroy played much better last week in St. Louis, and he has made a career out of his play at East Lake. Wyndham Clark won the BMW Championship by multiple strokes for his third victory of the year. Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup and Sam Burns are all trending in the right direction, with Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg lurking as well. I could make the case for nearly every player in the field, and this week’s winner might also solidify his Player of the Year résumé.

Let’s begin a bit farther down the betting board and focus on Ryan Gerard. He has posted top-25 finishes in each of the first two legs of the Playoffs and is currently on a six-start streak of gaining strokes from tee to green. He’s combined that area of his game with a putter that can compete with just about anyone on TOUR right now. Since the Charles Schwab Challenge 10 starts ago, Gerard has gained 34.63 strokes putting. During that stretch, he’s collected four top-10 finishes.

This will be his first trip to East Lake, which does give some room for pause. However, he is well-rounded enough to figure it out on the fly. He’s not reliant on just one aspect of his game, which usually benefits players the first time they see a course in tournament action. There are a variety of ways to unleash Gerard, but I’ve decided to click his name in the Top 10 market, priced at +182 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

With only 30 players in the field, I want to get creative with the construction of this card. Gotterup is a name I’m bullish on, but I want to ensure we deploy him in the proper way. I doubt I need the hard sell on Gotterup, who already has three wins this year, but I think East Lake is going to reward his game better than Bellerive or TPC Southwind has over the last two weeks.

His floor off the tee is one of the highest on TOUR. He’s almost certainly going to pick up one stroke per round in that category while just needing to figure out the rest of his game. My plan is to use Gotterup in the End of Round 2 Top 10 market, which can be found at +130 on DraftKings.

Over 36 holes, he should be able to use that high floor to move into the top third of the field without having to battle the other stars over the weekend. He’s also been a fast starter recently. He’s gained at least three strokes over the first two rounds in five of his last six starts, something that can rarely be said about him over the final two rounds. It’s a unique market and a unique entry point for a very unique player.

The name that cannot be overlooked at East Lake is McIlroy. He has won the FedExCup three times, the most in history. His superpower is his ability to drive the ball, and East Lake offers no restrictions. In his 48 loops around East Lake, McIlroy has gained 37.29 strokes off the tee alone. That averages out to roughly three strokes gained off the tee over four days, which establishes his floor as he attempts to reach the approximately 12 total strokes gained it’ll take to win this event.

His play at Bellerive last week was encouraging, as he finished third, but he still didn’t have his best game. There were loads of missed opportunities throughout the week that suggest there is more juice to squeeze out of his game right now. There’s no better place than East Lake for him to reap those rewards. My favorite market for McIlroy is the top-five market, where he can be found at +140.

Very few golfers have a record at East Lake that can compete with McIlroy’s, but Schauffele can certainly make the argument. In eight trips, Schauffele has never finished worse than T7 at this event. He’s sporting an eye-popping 1.88 strokes gained per round over those 32 rounds.

He’s going to attack East Lake from every angle, as his game is so well-rounded. He’s one of the best tee-to-green players on the planet, and he’s gained more than 17 strokes putting across those 32 career rounds.

While I have concerns that Schauffele’s putting this year is not holding up to his high standards, these odds are simply too long for a high-end winner at his favorite golf course. Schauffele is my pick to win the TOUR Championship at +1475.

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