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Bolton: Consider future possibilities, tournament format for roster management at The American Express

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Best moments from The American Express

Best moments from The American Express

    Written by Rob Bolton

    One down, 31 to go.

    The Sony Open in Hawaii not only launched the 2026 PGA TOUR season but it also got our latest chase at league championships in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf off the ground. It was the first of nine tournaments contributing to Segment 1.

    With 581 points, BuntingsDerulo69 recorded a runaway victory among all gamers. That user’s margin of 20 points over Manjo in second equaled the difference between Manjo and the next 26 in the overall standings. So, just like that, the first pair of ground passes for the 2026 Presidents Cup has been claimed. Overall winners of all 32 tournaments receive the same prize.

    The Sony Open also cracked open the era in which gamers are allowed to submit lineups at any point during a tournament and still collect points for all rounds that haven’t started. Given how many fantasy points were scored by even middle-of the-roaders like me with 368, it already proved that my analysis in the preseason primer was accurate. Submitting a lineup late saves the zero that used to be the penalty, but it will not be a viable option as a strategy. Of course, and as noted in the primer, there still may come a time when it could be, so continue to check into this column weekly.

    In the season-opening Fantasy Insider, I reviewed all of my contributions and where and when you can expect to find them, so check that out if you missed it. Like a lot of content early in the season, the opening with lots of links was intended to be evergreen.

    A couple of days after it published, the PGA TOUR announced that the distribution of FedExCup points for the first two legs of the Playoffs is changing this season. Points allocated will equal what is currently up for grabs at THE PLAYERS Championship and all four majors. So, instead of 2,000 points to the winners of the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship, 750 points will be awarded.

    This is not an insignificant change as it concerns our strategy in Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Through 2025, the smartest approach was to end-load starts for studs to pile up quadrupled FedExCup bonus points with double that going to your captain in all three no-cut competitions. (FedExCup bonus points for the TOUR Championship replicate that of the first two Playoff events.) Now, with all three stops in the series no more impactful than THE PLAYERS and the majors, not to mention nine Signature Events for which FedExCup points are only slightly lower, roster management in Segment 3 will be adjusted. And because slingshots at the finish line will require even more stars to align, decisions throughout the season could be influenced.

    Fantasy gamers are grateful that that news was released so early in the season and before it has a direct impact on our well-intended plans. However, The American Express is a regular event awarding 500 FedExCup points to its champion, so a balanced attack amid long-term patience is the objective.

    The field is not only loaded with 156 golfers, it’s just plain loaded with talent. So, and already, my new section below, “future possibilities,” becomes an immediate contributor to your roster management. Note that six of the eight remaining tournaments in Segment 1 are ranked beside Scottie Scheffler but that The American Express slots last among them. While course history is the primary force behind all rankings in that section, gamers in general must beware how shootouts shake out with unexpected hot putters seizing headlines.

    The other layer of this tournament is the format. With the field split evenly and rotating to a different course for each of the first three rounds, the objective will be to maximize your starts on the easiest two – the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST and La Quinta Country Club. Tee times for all three rounds were released on Monday, so you can map out your strategy earlier than usual.

    You can avoid starts on the Pete Dye Stadium Course in all three rounds if you select exactly two golfers from each of the three draws. That will ensure that the two starts on that course can cycle onto your bench in every round. That also means that you’d be burning a start for all six golfers, but because it’s a shootout, you’re already less inclined to exhaust one for, say, Scheffler. His breakdown in future possibilities reinforces the decision.

    The rub is that you’re going to be motivated not to bench your captain even when he plays the host course. As I detailed in the Power Rankings, the potential of wind during Saturday’s third round sheds light on when you’re advised to play your captain when he rotates to the Stadium Course. Fantasy scoring will be muted overall and the differences between the Stadium Courses and its co-hosts will be smaller than the projections for the first two rounds.

    Captain

    Sam Burns … Because of the calculated approach and roster construction required to check all of the boxes as outlined above, this decision is as much about personal preference as it gets all season. He’s No. 6 in my Power Rankings and drew the Stadium Course on Saturday, so he defaulted into this role.


    Sam Burns hits 53-yard approach to 3 feet, sets up birdie on No. 3 at Hero World Challenge

    Sam Burns hits 53-yard approach to 3 feet, sets up birdie on No. 3 at Hero World Challenge


    Other considerations

    • Scottie Scheffler ... Because you’re limited to three starts in the Segment and he might start as many as six times, I’m not advising burning one at PGA WEST. While fantasy scoring will be bananas, it’s still a shootout that demands respect. However, it’s worth the reminder that if you do pull the trigger, just make sure that he’s your captain. I explained this strategy in detail when the captain was introduced last season and implored for the best of your picks to be your captain every time.
    • Patrick Cantlay ... Despite a relatively quiet 2025, the No. 5 in my Power Rankings still has more than enough juice to deserve this designation and his record in this tournament is outstanding.

    Rounding out the roster

    I began with a short list of 10 and whittled until I landed on two golfers from each of the three draws. Once Burns gets to the Stadium Course in the third round, I’ll have had two rounds to review the progress of the four who played it in one of the first two rounds. That’ll help influence who sits on the bench instead of Burns in the third round despite rotating to one of the preferred tracks.

    My starters

    • Ludvig Åberg
    • Sam Burns (C)
    • Ben Griffin
    • Si Woo Kim

    My bench

    • Ryan Gerard (1)
    • J.T. Poston (2)

    Ludvig Åberg previews his 2026 season on 'The Drop'

    Ludvig Åberg previews his 2026 season on 'The Drop'


    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out those who demand a pause and why.

    • Nick Taylor ... After opening the Sony Open in Hawaii with a field-low-tying 62 and extending the co-lead to the midpoint, he’d settle for a T13 after a pair of even-par 70s on the weekend. No doubt that performance is contributing to an ownership of 12.2% for The American Express, good for 13th-most at last check. However, in 11 trips, he’s never contended, missed five cuts and has just two top 30s. No one in the field has as many starts in the tournament without a top-10 finish.
    • Justin Rose ... The Englishman is the 12th-most owned at 12.9%. He closed out 2025 with a sixth-place finish at the Hero World Challenge. It punctuated an exceptional run of form that covered eight starts. However, he hasn’t appeared at PGA WEST in three years and didn’t connect for a top 25 in his only three trips in the last 15 years. Give him the time and space to tune up for a pair of tasty possibilities detailed below.
    • Andrew Novak ... He polished off 2025 with a victory at the Grant Thornton Invitational where he partnered with Lauren Coughlin and prevailed by three strokes. Coincidentally, but oddly, both of his titles last year were in team competitions (Zurich Classic of New Orleans). Despite that mojo that piggybacked a fruitful fall, he’s 0-for-4 at The American Express since he first appeared in 2022. Of his dozen rounds logged, only three were under par, none of which were among his last six.
    • Kevin Yu ... He’s 1-for-3 with a T3 in 2024 at PGA WEST, but this is a reminder that he withdrew early from last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii and two of the FedExCup Fall events, including The RSM Classic where he tumbled outside the first Aon Next 10 for 2026.

    Justin Rose sinks 9-foot birdie putt on No. 7 at Hero World Challenge

    Justin Rose sinks 9-foot birdie putt on No. 7 at Hero World Challenge


    Future possibilities

    NOTE: This section consists of notables in this week’s field for whom more than three starts may be considered in Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple tournaments are listed (e.g., “1” for strongest, “2” for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change throughout Segment 1 no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitments.

    • Ludvig Åberg ... Farmers Insurance Open (1); AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2); Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (3)
    • Sam Burns ... The American Express (2); WM Phoenix (1); Pebble Beach (4); The Genesis Invitational (3)
    • Patrick Cantlay ... The American Express (2); Pebble Beach (3); The Genesis (1)
    • Matt Fitzpatrick ... WM Phoenix (3); Arnold Palmer Invitational (1); THE PLAYERS (2)
    • Ben Griffin ... The American Express (1); Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (2)
    • Brian Harman ... THE PLAYERS (2)
    • Russell Henley ... Cognizant Classic (3); Arnold Palmer Invitational (1)
    • Si Woo Kim ... WM Phoenix (2); Pebble Beach (1); THE PLAYERS (3)
    • Robert MacIntyre ... WM Phoenix (1); Arnold Palmer Invitational (3); THE PLAYERS (2)
    • Justin Rose ... Farmers (2); Pebble Beach (1)
    • Scottie Scheffler ... The American Express (6); WM Phoenix (2); Pebble Beach (5); The Genesis (4); Arnold Palmer (1); THE PLAYERS (3)
    • Sepp Straka ... The American Express (3); Cognizant Classic (1); THE PLAYERS (2)

    Returning to competition

    • Will Zalatoris ... He got back after it in earnest at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in early December and placed 15th in a field of 66, but this marks his first appearance on the PGA TOUR since the PGA Championship last May. It wasn’t long after that that he underwent his second back surgery in 25 months. He has 16 starts via a Major Medical Extension this season and projects to take a bite out of that target at The American Express where he’s 4-for-4 with a T6 (2022) and a T12 (2025).
    • Charley Hoffman ... Also shed rust at the Australian Open (MC) after 25 weeks off to recover from surgery to have a lipoma removed from his right shoulder. He has 12 starts on his Major Medical Extension. The American Express is the perfect spot for the Southern California native to resume his PGA TOUR career because he broke through for the first of his four TOUR titles in this tournament in 2007. Overall, he’s hung up six top 10s in 17 appearances, the most recent of which was a T5 just last year.
    • Jimmy Stanger ... Here’s yet another talent back on TOUR after an extended hiatus but who rehabbed elsewhere in the interim. He shut his rookie season of 2024 down that summer due to tendinitis in his right elbow. Tried a pair of brief comebacks in 2025 and opened this year on the Korn Ferry Tour, only to have one payday to show for those four efforts. He also has a dozen starts on his medical extension.

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