La Quinta has been called the “Golf Capital of the World,” thanks to the 100-plus courses that reside in the Coachella Valley. But for our purposes, it’s the “Land of Longshots.”

Since 2019, the average winner’s odds at The American Express have been a staggering +15300 — the second-highest average on TOUR behind the Wyndham Championship. Early-season volatility is only amplified by a 156-player field spread across three courses, with amateurs alongside for the walk. It all adds up to one of the most unpredictable events on the calendar.

The Dye Stadium Course at PGA WEST will serve as the host venue, meaning it will be played by the entire field on Sunday after a 54-hole cut. The first three rounds will rotate across the Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Scoring opportunities are often abundant at the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club, which both played roughly 3.5 strokes under par in 2025 and ranked 47th and 46th, respectively, in difficulty among the 49 courses on the schedule last season.

The Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course will provide the toughest test. It played to a 71.35 scoring average last season, ranking inside the top 20 most difficult courses.

Jason Day will kick off his 2026 campaign this week, looking to build on a stellar 2025 season in which he posted plus-0.71 Strokes Gained per round and recorded four top-10 finishes in just 18 starts. That marked the fewest starts for Day in any season of his career as he shifted his focus to quality over quantity. Day has made the trip to the desert in each of the past four seasons, making all four cuts and posting his best finish (T3) last year. He is +250 to finish inside the Top 20 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Welcome back, Will Zalatoris.

He will make his first PGA TOUR start since last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. However, he did tee it up on the DP World Tour in early December, finishing 15th at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. His tee-to-green performance looked vintage, and his history at The American Express is strong. He has never finished worse than T36 in four appearances, highlighted by a T6 in 2022 and a T12 last year. At DraftKings Sportsbook, he is +290 to finish inside the top 20.

While many of his peers took the fall off, Matt Fitzpatrick ramped up, playing seven times worldwide since his FedExCup Playoff run ended at the BMW Championship. That stretch includes a Ryder Cup victory, three straight top-six finishes on the DP World Tour, and a year-ending win at the DP World Tour Championship.

Statistically, 2025 was a career year for Fitzpatrick. He gained strokes in all four major categories while pushing both his club speed (119.9 mph) and ball speed (177.9 mph) to career highs. This will be his debut at The American Express, but that is not a concern, considering Fitzpatrick is one of the most prepared players on the planet. He has my pick to win at +3000 at DraftKings.

With the history of longshot winners here in the desert, there’s plenty of reason to think that Ryan Gerard could add his name to that list.

It has been a productive few months for Gerard, who finished inside the top 50 of the 2025 FedEx Cup standings, ensuring his spot in all the Signature Events this season. He also finished second at the Mauritius Open in the final days of 2025, earning enough Official World Golf Ranking points to receive an invitation to the Masters.

Now, with his schedule set, he is prepared to go full throttle — and that is exactly what he did last week in Honolulu. He charged on Sunday to finish second to Chris Gotterup while gaining more than six strokes on approach for the week. His outright odds are not quite triple digits, but +5500 to win outright will suffice.

I’m not sure I’ll be able to type this often, so here goes nothing: Scottie Scheffler won’t be making an appearance on my betting card this week.

There is no doubt he is the best player in the world, and it’s not close, but this event breeds volatility. It features a massive field, multiple courses and an early-season schedule spot that tends to introduce more randomness. Those factors downgrade the very top of the board. There is probably a reason this is one of the events Scheffler has played most often without a victory — this will be his sixth start. There will be plenty of opportunities to invest in Scheffler, but this is not one of them.

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