The American Express betting props: Look for Patrick Cantlay to notch another strong finish
5 Min Read

'The Early Card' on 'The Drop' looks at picks for The American Express
Written by Mike Glasscott
Prop markets at DraftKings Sportsbook have expanded with a field of 156 players teeing it up at The American Express in La Quinta, California. The three-course rotation features the host Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA WEST in addition to the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. All three tracks play to par 72 and provide, if the weather cooperates, very friendly scoring conditions.
Here’s a look at some of the prop markets and selections that caught my eye ahead of the tournament start in California:
(Editor’s note: For more expert betting picks, fantasy advice and event previews, visit DraftKings Network.)
Winner without Scottie Scheffler
Even though his record here is “un-Scheffler-like,” I am eliminating the most dominant player in the world over the last four years. Nick Dunlap, the winner two years ago, picked up the trophy in his fourth TOUR start as an amateur. Last year, Ryder Cupper and two-time TOUR champion Sepp Straka lifted the trophy. That is one incredible recent range of results in just two seasons! Let’s pick a player from each tier and see what we find.
Alex Noren (+4500) missed the first four months of 2025 with a hamstring tear. Once he arrived, he needed a couple of months and seven starts to regain his sea legs. The five worldwide starts, beginning with the 3M Open, that followed, he rattled off T7-T3-WIN-MC-WIN and nearly qualified for the Ryder Cup. He arrives in the desert this week after finishing second to Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge in December.
Alex Smalley (+9000) played the Stadium Course 11-under in 2025, the second-best aggregate for the week. Smalley, who hits tons of fairways and greens in regulation, flashed with a T4 (Baycurrent Classic) and T3 (Butterfield Bermuda Championship) in the FedExCup Fall. He knocked the rust off with T40 at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week, and I would expect an uptick in his ball-striking in Week 2. He arrives in the desert searching for his fifth consecutive T25 or better payday at La Quinta.
Top-five finish (including ties)
Patrick Cantlay (+475) owns a share of the Stadium Course tournament record (61) and cashed in the top five twice (runner-up in 2021; T5 2025). He should have another top 10 on his record after sharing 10th place after 54 holes in 2024. His closing round of 76 knocked him to T52. Rounds above 70 this week need not apply.
Top-10 finish (including ties)
First-time winners have littered the board over the last decade. Max Greyserman (+500) has done everything except lift the trophy in the previous 15 months. With five second-place finishes since November of 2024, his next stop is the winner’s circle. He returns to the desert to an event where he cashed a check for T7 in 2025 and led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach on the Stadium Course. His last runner-up payday was at the Baycurrent Classic in the FedExCup Fall.
Before Davis Thompson (+425) steamrolled the field at the John Deere Classic for his first career victory, he went close in this shootout in the desert. Finishing second in his first career start, he posted 26-under and missed a playoff by a shot. With only one top-10 payday to show from last year, I will point out that he posted four T25 or better finishes in his final five events of 2025.
The last time Bud Cauley (+1000) teed it up in the Coachella Valley was 2020. His paycheck for T4 was the fourth time in five visits he cashed T14 or better. The three-course rotation has been the same since the 2016 edition. He knows what is necessary to contend, and he is coming off T24 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Mindful | Bud Cauley’s remarkable comeback after car accident
Top-20 finish
Matt Fitzpatrick (+120) held off Ludvig Åberg and Tommy Fleetwood before knocking out Rory McIlroy in a playoff to win the DP World Tour Championship. Get hot. Stay hot.
J.T. Poston (+210) earned five consecutive T30 or better paydays to end 2025, including T7 at The RSM Classic in his final start of 2025. Over the last four years at La Quinta, he racked up paydays including T12-T11-T6-T25. He earned a T12 in 2025 with a 76 on the card. All three of his PGA TOUR wins have required 22-under or better for victory. Locked and loaded!
S.H. Kim (+600) gained over five shots on the greens last week. Without the pesky rough to worry about in the desert, he will have more chances to wield his putter.
Sahith Theegala (+850), OK, I’ll bite. He circled 20 birdies last week and closed with 66-67-68 for T31. With a bit of confidence in his bag, the California native and former winner on TOUR could be dangerous this week.
Top rest of the world
Anytime there is an angle to avoid Scheffler, take it.
Taylor Pendrith (+750) heads the 35-player market and enters the week off a top-10 performance at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Si Woo Kim (+900) was hot on his heels at Waialae and is the 2021 winner at this event. The Australian trio of Adam Scott (+1000), Jason Day (+1100), and Min Woo Lee (+1000) should not distract you from the next two players on the list. Nick Taylor, who led the field in SG: Stadium Course in 2025, and Christiaan Bezudienhout, the 2024 runner-up to Nick Dunlap, both sit at +1200. Taylor put up a brave defense (T13) at the Sony Open last week while Bezuidenhout tuned his game in his native South Africa, earning a pair of top-10 results in December. I am going to ride the South African and his white-hot putter in a shootout.
Par-5 scoring
The No. 1 player on TOUR in 2025 in this category was Pierceson Coody (+9000). Coming off a T13 finish last week in Hawaii, he closed with 64 and played both par-5 holes in 7-under. Yes, I know Scheffler is right behind him in second place, but he is +1400 and the top choice. Play them both if you need to hedge.
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Terms: draftkings.com/sportsbook. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL.



