Draws and Fades: Valspar Championship

Once upon a time, which is to say every season through 2020-21, my weekly Qualifiers included the World Golf Championships. Well, it excluded the WGC-HSBC Champions because of how many automatic qualifiers sat it out – we gave that a whirl one year – so that was as confusing as is it wasn’t helpful, but the other two stroke-play WGCs were staples. Because neither was scheduled in 2021-22, the one-stop shopping experience of Qualifiers has focused only on those eligible for THE PLAYERS Championship and the four majors.

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There’s still one WGC on the docket, however. It’s the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and it’s on deck.

Historically, the latest update of Qualifiers would have included all 64 who now are eligible for the annual five-day competition beginning March 23 at Austin Country Club, but since you can easily review the current Official World Golf Ranking to determine who’s in, it’s pointless to add them just days before the commitment deadline, which is 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, March 18. Even back in the day, when I did add the eligible, it was more about achieving as much cohesion among the WGCs in that space than anything. Although there are no perfect solutions to most things in the fantasy space, I try to lean into the most logical when it concerns such a short turnaround time.

Much like every other premier event, the checkpoint to qualify for the Match Play always influences commitments in the interim. This is why it’s been noted where most impactful in Notable WDs for the Valspar Championship below.

Meanwhile, PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live enters its fifth week. After finishing third at The Honda Classic, I placed 10th at THE PLAYERS. Naturally, I expect to fare well in every golf game, but how it developed last week was very different than Sepp Straka’s +10000-coin breakthrough victory at PGA National.

Of the top 10 in Pick ‘Em Live, only six were on board with champion Cameron Smith, and only the seventh- and eighth-place finishers had him with odds multiplying the kickback. Each was rewarded at +3300, which was Smith’s pre-tournament line.

Also consider that the winner, Partypats, totaled 5,987 coins with Anirban Lahiri as the outright. Lahiri, of course, finished alone in second place, so Partypats took a zero in that category.

You can dive into the details by opening every entry, but the message is that, like with every worthy experience, there are multiple paths to the prize money in Pick ‘Em Live. As we noted when the game was introduced, you are never out of it because of the dynamic nature of the odds and our ability to make changes to many bets and props during the course of a tournament.

Because I’ve promised to drop tips and tricks in this space as we go, read on for more potentially valuable advice that I discovered by accident. It requires setup for full context.

I entered THE PLAYERS with Tom Hoge as my outright at +8000. I hung with him until he rinsed his tee ball at the par-3 13th hole in the final round. While monitoring his live odds throughout the tournament, I noticed that the interface changed how it displays his live odds.

While “+8000” remained at the top of the column as expected, Hoge’s live odds beside his name never changed even though his position in the expanded stack of others To Win fell outside the range where +8000 would have slotted.

For example, when he was contending early as the co-leader after each of the first two rounds, his odds shortened to well less than +8000, and he was inside the top three or so of the shortest, but the highlighted rectangle beside him still read “+8000.” Previously, current odds appeared all the while his most recently reserved value (e.g., +8000) would remain parked at the top.

So, I opened PointsBet’s app to find and track his live odds. The objective was to reselect Hoge if his value exceeded +8000, but I learned something else in the meantime.

There was a lag of 30-60 seconds between the time the live odds on the app would change and when Pick ‘Em Live would be updated. Yet, I still was able to lock in “live” odds at the values displayed in that window in Pick ‘Em Live.

It’s unlikely that the lag is an intentional method for users to navigate to the app, but my response to the change in how odds were displayed in Pick ‘Em Live has nothing but upside for PointsBet. I don’t bet on golf (or other sports), but it forced me to put my eyes on it for hours on end.

Curiously, other live odds for my selections did change in Pick ‘Em Live, so I couldn’t tell if the experience with the outright was a glitch or if it was controlled. Whatever the case, all that matters is how we react to it. Exploit the lag if it’s a constant. If you don’t, someone else will. We’re all in the same boat, anyway. And don’t always sweat that you don’t have the winner. Pick ‘Em Live already has proved that it requires your full bag to contend.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Tyrrell Hatton (-125 for a Top 20) … He’s coming off consecutive weeks of high-stress competition, and the Match Play is up next, so I’m mildly surprised that he opted to continue to compete instead of rest. He just doesn’t play enough to reward us as often as we’d prefer. In his debut at Copperhead in 2019, he missed the cut, but all experience has value on some level. Although only 14 of his 18 rounds have been measured by ShotLink, he’s officially leading the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, one-putt percentage, three-putt avoidance and conversion percentage inside 10 feet.

DRAWS

Tommy Fleetwood (+135 for a Top 20) … His missed cut at The Honda Classic probably appears to us as more of a turning point in his recent history than it does to him, but that he held on to position inside the top 50 of the OWGR and paid it off with a T22 at THE PLAYERS shouldn’t be set aside as just another forgettable sequence of events. He’s making his debut at Copperhead this week, but he does so on the positive bounce of the last three weeks and not as a result of a stressful need to regain a foothold on the global stage. Next week’s Match Play will be his fifth consecutive week on the road, but he’ll want to enter it on the coattails of a strong performance this week and on a sponsor exemption no less. Remember, he’s playing this season on conditional status, so despite his cachet and greater potential to get into invitationals, playing time is reduced, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll capitalize on every opportunity.

Kevin Kisner (+225 for a Top 20) … Easily could have slotted as the Wild Card based solely on his maddening trades of leaderboard appearances with missed cuts and pedestrian results. The recurring theme is that it plays out much more valuably in reality and in long-range formats than it does for our short-term considerations, so if you don’t mind it, at least you know that it’ll be a thrill ride.

Sam Ryder (+450 for a Top 20) … The irony is that the prince of hole-outs – he’s second on TOUR with 13 – actually does his best work around and on greens. He’s a scorer and it’s evident that the learning curve is flattening. In 2022 alone, he’s 7-for-8 with a pair of top 25s. Should be reasonably priced in DFS where you want that upswing.

Cameron Tringale (+250 for a Top 20) … Go ahead and dabble in his shares. He’s finished third twice at Copperhead, including just last year, and when he’s cashed since, he’s been running through the tape. Meanwhile, although he was on the wrong side of last week’s draw, the missed cut aligned with his propensity to get swallowed in the deepest fields. There have been exceptions, but this is the narrative that we must continue to respect.

Denny McCarthy
Alex Noren
Kevin Streelman

Odds sourced on Tuesday, March 15 at 5 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES

Brooks Koepka … Among the victims in the late-early draw at TPC Sawgrass but he still missed the cut by seven swings. This is just his second visit to Copperhead (2014), so it’s a reminder to leave him to tracks he likes and the biggest stages.

Webb Simpson … THE PLAYERS was his first live action in two months. He’s been on the mend for a herniated disc in his neck. Missed the cut by three at TPC Sawgrass and out of the easier side of the draw to boot. Mixed bag at Copperhead favors the contrarians among course-history buffs, but he’s a reach in a vacuum until he proves that he’s all the way back.

Gary Woodland … Disappointing MC at TPC Sawgrass where he was in the easier wave. It chased consecutive T5s to open the Florida Swing. He broke through at Copperhead in 2011, but since 2015, he’s just 2-for-6 and without a top 40.

Brian Harman … Love the form, hate the fit. Since 2015, he’s 0-for-4 at Copperhead with a scoring average of 73.125.

Henrik Stenson … Announced today as Europe’s Ryder Cup captain in 2023. The Swede has a sparkling record at Copperhead, but he remains chained to our doghouse until further notice.

Stewart Cink
Jason Day
Mackenzie Hughes
Scott Piercy
Charl Schwartzel
Brendon Todd
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

None.

NOTABLE WDs

Paul Casey … Slotted him No. 10 in my Power Rankings and in my original lineup in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. So it goes. He’ll likely return to Copperhead another year given that he’s connected for victory twice on the track. This isn’t too surprising given the stress of chasing the title at TPC Sawgrass and after what was a five-day event for a record prize fund. The break will give him a chance to catch his breath for next week’s Match Play where he’s been a fruitful contributor.

Joaquin Niemann … Like Casey, I had the recent winner of The Genesis Invitational in the Power Rankings as well, but he withdrew before I filed, so you never saw him. Look for him at next week’s Match Play.

Cameron Young … Continues to feel his way through a stupendous rookie season. This is his third early WD (Bermuda, Pebble Beach), but he’s qualified for the Match Play, so he’ll get his first break in six weeks to rest and prep. Sits 14th in the FedExCup, easily best among all 27 rookies.

Sebastián Muñoz … Climbed one to 65th in the Official World Golf Ranking, so he can plan on a spot in next week’s Match Play once the DNPs are determined.

Maverick McNealy … His Valspar debut remains on ice for another year. Finished T46 at THE PLAYERS, but he tumbled one spot to 70th in the Official World Golf Ranking, so he’ll be on the bubble to crash the field at the Match Play when it’s released on Friday. Even if he doesn’t squeak in, he can be proud of a terrific season thus far. He’s 11-for-12 and 22nd in the FedExCup.

Doug Ghim … The T6 at THE PLAYERS lifted him to 101st in the FedExCup, so he’s earned his first break in six weeks.

Taylor Pendrith … As noted in the latest Rookie Ranking, his T13 at THE PLAYERS was the best finish by a rookie in nine years. This will be his first week off in a month.

Brandt Snedeker … Five straight MCs dating back to the Farmers and just 174th in the FedExCup, so he’d likely have been lightly owned at Copperhead despite a reliable and relatively strong record on the course.

Kevin Tway … He’s 0-for-3 at Copperhead, and he went 0-for-3 on this Florida Swing, but he’s 63rd in the FedExCup because of his co-runner-up finish at Houston in the fall. It still accounts for over 80 percent of his points earned.

Patrick Rodgers … This is his first early WD in three years but given that he’s just 1-for-5 with a T59 at Copperhead in 2018, it’s fair to wonder why he committed in the first place. But seriously, every golfer in the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle category goes into every season with the intent to play as often as possible. Of course, this isn’t his first rodeo and he’s 75th in the FedExCup despite no top 35s in his last 10 starts, but it’s still a great reminder that the value of addition by subtraction of a track that’s given him fits yields important rest.

RECAP – THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Collin Morikawa MC
2 Justin Thomas T33
3 Rory McIlroy T33
4 Jon Rahm T55
5 Hideki Matsuyama DNP
6 Viktor Hovland T9
7 Daniel Berger T13
8 Xander Schauffele MC
9 Adam Scott MC
10 Shane Lowry T13
11 Matt Fitzpatrick MC
12 Patrick Cantlay MC
13 Scottie Scheffler T55
14 Corey Conners T26
15 Will Zalatoris T26
16 Cameron Smith Win
17 Sungjae Im T55
18 Sergio Garcia T26
19 Talor Gooch MC
20 Tommy Fleetwood T22
Wild Card Dustin Johnson T9

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Prop) Result
Dylan Frittelli (+750 = top 20) T50
Danny Lee (+900 = top 20) WD
C.T. Pan (+500 = top 20) MC
Brian Stuard (+750 = top 20) MC
Jhonattan Vegas (+400 = top 20) MC

GOLFBET
Bet Result
Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim & Paul Casey all top-40 finish (+2900) T26/T22/WD/3rd

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

March 15 … none
March 16 … Bud Cauley (32); Beau Hossler (27)
March 17 … Aaron Baddeley (41); Patrick Cantlay (30)
March 18 … none
March 19 … none
March 20 … Arjun Atwal (49); John Merrick (40)
March 21 … Brandon Hagy (31)