Sleeper Picks: Valspar Championship

Matthias Schwab(+350 for a Top 20) … During most other moments, this would be cheating, but a lot happened last week and he hasn’t competed since finishing T7 in Puerto Rico in the shadow of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. That replicated his performance at the more challenging test of The Honda Classic, so he rolls in on a pair of T7s. He planted the groundwork for the burst when he first landed in the U.S. in 2022 at Pebble Beach where he matched the course record with a 62 in the second round. In the 15 rounds contributing to his Strokes Gained metrics this season, he’s fourth on TOUR in SG: Putting, but the 27-year-old rookie from Austria also is fourth in adjusted scoring, which factors in all 26 of his rounds this season.

Chad Ramey(+500 for a Top 20) … The second of the two rookies included here, he’s fresh off a T5 in Puerto Rico where he led the field in fairways hit, ranked T6 in greens in regulation and co-led in par-5 scoring. It was his third top 20 of the season. Currently inside the top 40 on TOUR in both driving accuracy and GIR, as well as T16 in proximity. Copperhead’s learning curve doesn’t discriminate against first-timers. In every edition of this tournament from 2011 through 2019 – all in March – at least one rookie recorded a top 20, and 15 overall converted. The club consists of numerous notables such as Jordan Spieth (T7, 2013), Justin Thomas (T10, 2015), Patrick Cantlay (2nd, 2017), Corey Conners (T16, 2018) and Sungjae Im (T4, 2019). So, it’s reasonable that Ramey’s fit and form will keep his rally rollin’.

Bill Haas(+600 for a Top 20) … The 39-year-old has scratched out eight paydays in 14 starts while burning the second of two allotted career earnings exemptions this season. His best result was a T25 at PGA National three weeks ago. Suffice it to say that a top 20 is an aggressive line but he went for a T13 in his last trip to Copperhead in 2019. In fact, he’s perfect in his last five tries dating back to 2014, including a playoff loss in 2016. Yes, that’s nearer in time to his FedExCup title way back in 2011 than it is to today, but veteran ball-strikers are known to rise from the ashes because they dig it out of the dirt.

Vaughn Taylor(+450 for a Top 20) … It makes sense that defending champion Sam Burns led the field in par-5 scoring en route to his title, but you’d win bar bets asking anyone to identify Taylor as the guy who ranked second last year. It’s true. Oh, and he also led the field in proximity to the hole and finished second in Strokes Gained: Putting for a sporty T6 at Copperhead. His next-best finish since occurred in his last start in Puerto Rico two weeks ago where he was fourth in par-3 scoring. That knack again would be valuable on Copperhead’s set of five par 3s. He’s 4-for-4 in 2022 while slotting 31st in fairways hit and third in proximity in 15 rounds contributing during limited action this season due to conditional status.

Wesley Bryan(+1000 for a Top 20) … Next in line to pull a Ryan Brehm. This is Bryan’s last start via a Major Medical Extension. To retain status, he needs no worse than a solo sixth-place finish, but a solo 51st would shore up conditional status for the remainder of the season, so a make-the-cut prop is the better bettor’s play where available. He’s 2-for-2 at Copperhead with a T7 (as a rookie) in 2017 and a T48 last year, so he’s picked a good, confident spot to eclipse at least the secondary objective. Unlike Brehm prior to his breakthrough in Puerto Rico, Bryan already has lifetime membership on the PGA TOUR as a former winner, so his worst-case scenario would drop him into the Past Champions category and he’d remain eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs if he doesn’t fulfill either terms of his medical.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. For live odds, visit betmgm.