Horses for Courses: Expect ball-strikers to flourish at firm and fast Royal Birkdale

It’s wild to think there are only four weeks remaining in the season before the FedExCup Playoffs. Before we get there, the final major championship of the season takes center stage.

It has already been a remarkable year, but the search for gold at the end of the rainbow continues as the golf world heads to Royal Birkdale for the 2026 Open Championship.

Before we break down the course, it is important to note how much Americans have dominated this championship recently. Four of the last five Open champions have been American: Scottie Scheffler (+680 to repeat this week at DraftKings Sportsbook) in 2025, Xander Schauffele (+2400) in 2024, Brian Harman (+10000) in 2023, and Collin Morikawa (+3300) in 2021.

Royal Birkdale

This will be the 11th time Royal Birkdale has hosted The Open. The championship was most recently played here in 2017, when Jordan Spieth (+11000) hoisted the claret jug.

The 7,223-yard, par-70 links course has undergone a few changes since then. Royal Birkdale has essentially rebuilt Nos. 5, 14, and 15, enhanced the runoff areas around several greens, and reworked bunkers throughout the course.

The goal was not necessarily to make the course more difficult for the everyday golfer. It was to apply more pressure to the professionals chasing major glory down the stretch.

Royal Birkdale is a fun links course because it has all the normal quirks of links golf without being overly quirky. It has the wispy fescue, firm conditions, and fast, undulating greens, but the course is built on relatively flat land. There are still elevation changes, but golfers should not have to deal with as many awkward bounces as they would at other courses in The Open rotation.

The difficulty meter is still set rather high.

There is a significant penalty for missing fairways. Golfers who find the rough will likely be battling just to save par. There are bunkers all over the course, many of which will require a layup rather than an attempt at the green.

The greens are also small, averaging around 5,200 square feet. They will be difficult to hit and even more difficult to hold. In true links fashion, controlling spin and trajectory will be a major advantage. Even when golfers find the putting surface or get around the green, finishing the hole will present its own challenge.

The first and possibly most important metric I want to look at is how well golfers have performed on other links courses in the major rotation and across the professional tours. We want to identify the golfers with the links pedigree to contend at Royal Birkdale.

Strokes Gained: Total on Links Courses (last 36 rounds, data via Betsperts Golf)

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Tom Kim
4. Jon Rahm
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Matt Fitzpatrick

Matt Fitzpatrick to Win +1750 and Top-20 Finish (-112)

These are two of my favorite bets on the board.

A blazing-hot Fitzpatrick has basically dominated golf since the end of the DP World Tour season. He won the DP World Tour Championship late last year and did not waste much time carrying that form into the PGA TOUR season.

Fitzpatrick finished runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship before winning the Valspar Championship the very next week. He followed that with a T18 at the Masters Tournament and another victory at the RBC Heritage.

He even helped his younger brother, Alex Fitzpatrick (+6000), secure his first PGA TOUR victory and TOUR card. Matt was not done there. He finished second at the RBC Canadian Open, fourth at the Travelers Championship, and T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open.

During that stretch, Fitzpatrick has dominated off the tee, finding the fairway more than 67% of the time. Over his last eight rounds, that number is closer to 77%. He is also lighting up the field on approach, while his putter has been phenomenal outside of a difficult Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Fitzpatrick might not have the best overall record in major championships, but he is still a major champion and a golfer who excels on links courses.

Royal Birkdale should identify the absolute flushers. Golfers will need to control their ball, dominate on approach, and keep themselves out of trouble. Fitzpatrick fits that profile perfectly.

He can light it up with his irons, he is playing some of the best golf in the world, and he has already proven he can win while the whole world is watching. Given his form, pedigree and mentality, how can you not bet Fitzpatrick to capture his second major championship?

Strokes Gained: Approach

Ball-striking and approach play will play a massive role in determining who wins and who contends this week.

There is a reason the list of Open champions at Royal Birkdale is so phenomenal. Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson, Pádraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth have all won here. They are Hall-of-Famers or future Hall-of-Famers, and they were all pure ball-strikers.

Every week, it is easy to chase the golfers swinging the hottest bats. This week is no different. I want to target the players gaining the most strokes on approach.

The larger sample sizes over 50, 36, and 24 rounds are still important, but I also want to know who is arriving at Royal Birkdale scorching hot with the irons. For that reason, I narrowed the list to the last 12 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach (last 12 rounds)

1. Tom Kim
2. Dan Brown
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
4. Johnny Keefer
5. Robert MacIntyre
6. Sam Burns

Best value on the board

Tommy Fleetwood, Top-20 Finish (-108)

There are a ton of golfers near the top of this list that I like this week.

Tom Kim (+4500) is coming off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open and has been one of the best approach players in the field. His top-20 price is still playable. Johnny Keefer (+25000) also has an interesting top-20 number entering his first Open Championship.

Then there is Robert MacIntyre (+2700). He is a links specialist, he is driving the ball well, and we already know his putter can be a weapon in these conditions.

However, I am going with the hometown kid, Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), as my best value on the board.

Fleetwood was born and raised in Southport, England. He grew up around Royal Birkdale and reportedly used to sneak onto the course as a child. He probably has more familiarity with this property than anyone else in the field.

I do think Fleetwood is a solid option to win the tournament, but I have a hard time betting him to win any event, especially against a field this strong, with his outright price sitting in the teens.

That will not stop me from backing him in the top-20 market.

Fleetwood has made 15 PGA TOUR starts this season and finished inside the top 20 in 66.7% of them. Last season, he recorded a top-20 finish in 68.4% of his 19 starts.

What I also love about Fleetwood is that he is a notorious Sunday try-hard. It always feels like his finishing position matters to him, even when he is not in contention to win.

Over the last 36 final rounds, Fleetwood has gained an average of 1.41 strokes, which ranks sixth in the field. He does most of his damage from tee to green, and when the putter gets hot, he usually finds himself flirting with contention.

With Fleetwood, we have the links experience, elite ball striking, consistent finishes, and the hometown narrative. It is hard not to love him at this price to finish inside the top 20.

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