Horses for Courses: Consider young stars Blades Brown, Jackson Koivun at birdie-infused John Deere Classic

I’m beyond stoked for this week’s John Deere Classic. There’s just something about TPC Deere Run that makes this tournament fun every single year. These guys know they can go low, make a ton of birdies, and, in a lot of cases, use this week to completely jump-start their careers.

TPC Deere Run has always been known as a birdie fest, but it’s also become an opportunity for younger players and guys still trying to establish themselves on TOUR. Just look at some of the names who have won here early in their careers: Brian Campbell, Sepp Straka, Davis Thompson, Michael Kim (+5500). The list goes on.

That’s what makes this tournament so exciting to bet on. It gives younger, less experienced players a chance to capitalize, and it gives us as bettors a chance to find longer prices in the field without needing to invest a ton.

But before we tackle who is going to win this tournament, we have to understand a little bit about TPC Deere Run.

This D.A. Weibring-designed, parkland-style TPC course is fun, gettable and built for scoring. It plays as a par 71 and measures 7,327 yards, but the scoring conditions here are usually pretty easy. Every recent champion has reached at least 18-under par or better, which tells you everything you need to know.

There isn’t a ton of water on this golf course, and while you still need to find fairways, they are not narrow by any stretch of the imagination. They are wide, receptive and give players plenty of chances to attack.

That’s what makes the approach numbers so important this week. If you hit the fairway at TPC Deere Run, there’s a good chance you’re going to have a wedge in hand, and that creates a ton of birdie opportunities for players who can dial in their short irons.

It’s important this week to find guys who can just go out there and go insanely low.

The birdie-or-better percentage at TPC Deere Run is 23.5% over the last five years, which is higher than the TOUR average of 21.4%. The scoring average of 69.42 also suggests that even players who are struggling can still roll in a few birdies at this course.

That brings me to the guys in this field who are simply the best birdie makers.

Here are the top six players in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds (data via RickRunGood.com):

• 1. Keith Mitchell
• 2. Blades Brown
• 3. Trace Crowe
• 4. Eric Cole
• 5. Jonathan Byrd
• 6. Jackson Suber

Blades Brown, To Win (+6600) | Top 20 (including ties) (+260)

I was fully prepared to go nuclear over bad pricing on Blades Brown (+6600) this week.

Realistically, I didn’t want to see his number anywhere near the +3000 range to win this tournament, but I was prepared to bet him at +4000 or better. So getting +6600 at DraftKings Sportsbook feels like a steal.

There’s this sense that Jackson Koivun (+2200) is the young gun who is going to come in here and light this tournament up, and I think his number being driven down into the low 20s has made people forget about Brown and the birdie-making skill he brings to the table.

In his short career, Brown already has top-10 finishes at golf courses where you need to score. He finished solo third at the Puerto Rico Open, T9 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, and has also flashed many times on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Brown is a birdie maker. Yes, he can get himself into some sticky situations off the tee when the golf course demands more precision, but as I already mentioned, TPC Deere Run is relatively easy to hit fairways at. This week, he can focus on making birdies.

Winning this tournament is not going to be easy, but I do think he can finish firmly inside the top 20. I also bet him to finish top 20 at +260. In three of his last four PGA TOUR starts, he finished inside the top 20. The lone finish outside of that range was a T40 at the Valspar Championship, which is a much more demanding course off the tee and requires far more precision throughout the round.

This could be a big Brown weekend. Given both of these prices, I think it’s a bet we have to make.

We can get into the weeds with proximity buckets, and I do think they are important this week. You want players who are good with wedges in their hands. We can also dig into which players carry more precision than distance off the tee.

But when you get to a golf course where the winner is so heavily influenced by how many birdies you make, I think it’s important to keep it simple.

Who are the guys gaining the most strokes coming into this tournament?

I don’t even need it to be over a huge sample size. I’m looking at the last 24 rounds to find those who are playing the best right now. Keep it simple and identify the hottest players coming into the week.

Here are the players who have gained the most strokes over the last 20 rounds (data via BetspertsGolf):

1. Jackson Koivun
2. Keith Mitchell
3. Blades Brown
4. Tom Kim
5. Eric Cole
6. Ben Griffin

Best Value on the Board

• Jackson Koivun, Top 10 (including ties) (+265)

The biggest story of the tournament is, without a doubt, Jackson Koivun (+2200).

This kid has taken the college scene by storm, and now he gets a golf course that should be absolutely suited for his game. It doesn’t feel like a matter of if he wins on TOUR. It feels like a matter of how many wins he will have.

He’s a baller, and the numbers back it up. Over the last 20 rounds, Koivun ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total, third in SG: Tee-to-Green, sixth in SG: Approach and first in SG: Putting. In his limited TOUR starts, all he has done is contend and play fantastic golf.

Koivun is a good birdie maker, but the finishes are what really stand out. He finished T11 here in 2025 while having a rough week with his irons, losing 1.2 strokes on approach. Since then, he finished T6 at the ISCO Championship, T5 at the Wyndham Championship, T4 at the Procore Championship and T23 at the U.S. Open.

That’s such an incredible run for such a young player. The talent is there, and I do think he is a real contender to win this tournament. I just have a problem backing him at +2000.

Maybe you want to get creative and parlay him with something, but that still doesn’t really solve the value problem. Adding parlay legs changes the overall payout, but it doesn’t change the value of the player.

It’s pretty simple. Koivun brings a fascinating game to TPC Deere Run. He is fairly accurate off the tee, hitting around 64% of his fairways. He has enough distance, averaging right around 300 yards per drive, and the ball speed and clubhead speed are there. Pair that with a really good putter and strong iron play, and it’s easy to see why people want to bet him this week.

I think the youth movement can absolutely continue at this tournament, and I fully expect Koivun to contend.