Horses for Courses: Why Sam Burns is built for Travelers Championship

Once again, the golf world was treated to an incredible major championship. For a while, it looked like Wyndham Clark (+2800) was going to run away with the U.S. Open, but Sam Burns (+2200) made a massive Sunday charge and forced Clark to play perfect golf down the stretch if he wanted to pick up the second major title of his career.

Now that the U.S. Open is over, we turn our attention to the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. It is a Northeast tournament, which means if you do not have a wager on New England’s finest, Keegan Bradley (+4700), you are probably going to lose money in some fashion.

I mean, he loves playing up here. He’s the defending champion and has won two of the last three times here.

That said, this is a fantastic golf course because it has shown that any type of golfer can win here. The 6,844-yard, par-70 layout is a short, parkland-style TPC course. It is tree-lined, positional, and still puts a premium on great approach play.

The biggest difference between TPC River Highlands and the courses we have seen over the last few weeks is the length. Those courses put a premium on the driver, specifically how long golfers are off the tee. Here, it is all about accuracy. This is more of a less-than-driver golf course because it is short, and the penalty for missing the fairway is significant.

Factor in the long rough and the small greens, which average around 5,000 square feet, and playing from the fairway becomes a massive advantage. This is not a bomb-and-gouge golf course, and I do not expect many golfers to take that strategy.

With an average driving distance of just 286 yards and a driver usage rate of 59.4%, this is less than driver off the tee and then an approach from 100 to 150 yards. On the true club-down holes, that range can stretch closer to 150 to 175 yards.

Given that 33% of approach shots come from 100 to 150 yards, I am essentially looking for the best wedge players in the field. This data is from the last 36 rounds, via BetspertsGolf.

• 1. Tom Hoge
• 2. Mark Hubbard
• 3. Jackson Suber
• 4. Ryan Gerard
• 5. Brandt Snedeker
• 6. Corey Conners

While the data points to 100 to 150 yards as the most common approach bucket, we also have to account for the fact that some golfers are not as long off the tee. When they club down, they could be left a little farther out. That is why I am also looking at the 125 to 150 yard range.

That brings me to one of those shorter hitters in Brian Harman (+6800).

At +6800, it is hard to ignore how much success Harman has had at this tournament. He has finished inside the top 10 in all but three trips here. He has also finished inside the top 10 in seven of his last eight starts at TPC River Highlands, including a runner-up finish in 2023.

This is one of those golf courses where Harman can actually gain off the tee. On longer courses, he usually loses strokes to the field in that area, but this course neutralizes that weakness. We also know Harman can putt, especially on Poa greens.

Getting this number on a golfer who consistently plays well here feels like one of the bigger betting advantages we will have this week. Since he is so far down the odds board, there is also value on him in the placement market, especially top 20.

It has not been a great run of form by any means, but we saw something similar last year. Leading into this tournament, Harman finished T60 at the PGA Championship, T46 at the Charles Schwab, missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, and finished T59 at the U.S. Open. Then he showed up at the Travelers and finished eighth before following it with a T50 at the Genesis Scottish Open.

For Harman, this is not about form. It is about fit. That is what makes him one of the most viable options in the outright market.

The next metric I am looking at is ball striking, but I am building it in a specific way. For those who do not know, ball striking is a mix of off-the-tee play and approach play. For this course, I am weighing the approach play higher. Within the off-the-tee metrics, I am also weighting driving accuracy higher than distance. The goal is to create a ball-striking metric that favors golfers at club-down venues.

Ball Striking model mix:

• 1. Alex Fitzpatrick
• 2. Matt Fitzpatrick
• 3. Collin Morikawa
• 4. J.J. Spaun
• 5. Scottie Scheffler
• 6. Cameron Young

Best Value on the Board

• Sam Burns, Top 20 (-105)

I genuinely do not think you can go wrong betting anybody on this list. To be honest, I will probably take three or four golfers from this group in the outright market this week.

But the golfer I am betting actually falls 20th in this model, and I have no reservations about playing him in both the outright and placement markets this week.

That golfer is Sam Burns.

There might be some hesitation with backing Burns after coming so close at a major championship, but I do not think it is warranted. Sure, there could be some fatigue, but let’s be real. He was not dueling all weekend. He was not really in the mix until a fantastic fourth and final round. To me, that felt more like he was playing with house money.

He also has decent course history here, finishing T13 in 2021 and T17 last year.

But with Burns, this is not just about course fit. It is about the way he has been playing golf this season. A win feels a lot closer than people think.

It goes all the way back to February when he finished T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Since then, he has finished T7 at the Masters, T4 at the Memorial, an event he probably should have won, and runner-up at the U.S. Open.

During that stretch, he has been gaining a ton of strokes on approach, and the putter has been red hot. This season, the driver has not been an issue either. It feels like he has brought a complete game with him everywhere he has gone.

Honestly, I have a hard time not betting on Burns. If we look at what happened at the U.S. Open, every golfer near the top of that leaderboard was playing fantastic golf. That has been the theme this season. It has been less about a perfect course fit and more about who is swinging the hot bat.

If you simply bet the hottest golfers in the world at every tournament this season, your return on investment would be close to 60%. I know that is not a viable long-term strategy, but until that changes, I think I have to take at least one or two of the hottest golfers in the world every week and ignore course fit slightly.

But with Burns, it is not totally ignoring course fit. He checks a lot of boxes here.