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​​Bolton: Fantasy playbook for offensive, defensive strategies at Cadillac Championship

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Golfbet Roundtable: Picks to tame Blue Monster at Cadillac

Golfbet Roundtable: Picks to tame Blue Monster at Cadillac

    Written by Rob Bolton

    No matter how much you love doing anything, it’s never a bad idea to take a break and reset before diving back in. The checkup from the neck up never will not play, even as we navigate a season of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

    It’s easy to get immersed amid the fun, but admit it. You feel refreshed and recharged after sitting last week out because the Zurich Classic of New Orleans does not contribute to the fantasy game at PGATOUR.com. Whatever conflicts you may have had with roster management likely were quelled simply by not having anything on the line.

    The bonus in the interim is that we learned who’s committed to this week’s Cadillac Championship, and more importantly, who isn’t. Because Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Åberg all are opting not to compete, your renewed perspective should be even clearer knowing that you aren’t persuaded to burn a start on any of them on Trump National Doral's Blue Monster Course. Another byproduct is that it strengthens the stretch run in Segment 2 for which two more Signature Events and the PGA Championship await. It’s still a lot for which to plan, but the load was lightened thanks to those guys in absentia.

    Now, it’s because of those same guys that there will be some canceling out of the choices in the same premier tournaments on the horizon. If we accept that to a degree, then we also accept that decisions at the Cadillac Championship are even more important.

    With no cut and what essentially is neutral turf because only 10 golfers in the field pegged it the last time that the Blue Monster hosted the PGA TOUR, and that was 10 years ago, an instinct is to diversify into supporting charges rather than to target the chalk. There are a couple of hazards with that approach.

    First, because the Blue Monster likely will yield fantasy scoring below the season average per tournament, and because this is a Signature Event, the beefed-up FedExCup bonus points for your starters in the final round will be more impactful than usual. Try to ignore both the allure that you’re promised to have four contributors and feeling that you’ll get lucky with at least a couple of them in favor of down-range roster management. Although we’re treated to big tournaments with deep fields regularly right now, there are only five stops after this one in Segment 2, so pouncing on the one directly in front of us presents a more dynamic opportunity.

    Second, although I almost always advise building rosters from the bottom up, especially in DFS, this is a moment in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf when it’s appropriate to start at the top and work your way down. With Scottie Scheffler in a field without McIlroy, and because we can designate only one of them to be our captain in a tournament, the calculated move is to hand the keys to Scheffler this week no matter where you sit in your overall standings. As you know, he’s as automatic to deliver as anyone since Tiger Woods in his prime, so our strategy is simplified into when to burn him as our captain. Thus, here and now.

    Even if you wanted to save Scheffler for his title defense at THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson, that win would kick back only 50 FedExCup bonus points. That’s only 10 more than a runner-up finish in a Signature Event and equivalent to a second-place finish at the PGA Championship. Should be placed, say, third, then that would correlate to a finish just inside the top 10 at the other two. It’s one thing to hit on him early in Segment 1 at The American Express, but it’s more of a gamble to expect and need the same after a heavy stretch deep in Segment 2.

    Because you’re now working with a manageable window of time, when you take a moment to sketch out probable captains the rest of the way, you should arrive at a construct sensible for your situation and from which you can fill in some of the blanks down roster in advance.

    Captain

    Scottie Scheffler … I explained the strategy for the No. 1 in my Power Rankings above, but it’d be irresponsible to overlook how much of a great fit he is for the Blue Monster. While it’s an argument that you’d win on other host sites, it’s especially applicable relative to the field on a long, challenging test.


    Scottie Scheffler pars 72nd hole, Matt Fitzpatrick bogeys to force playoff at RBC Heritage

    Scottie Scheffler pars 72nd hole, Matt Fitzpatrick bogeys to force playoff at RBC Heritage


    Other considerations

    • Cameron Young ... Suffice it to say that we have a midseason addition on the short list of considerations. He’s a rock-solid No. 2 in the Power Rankings, as well as in the outright market at DraftKings, so he’s the pivot if you’re choosing to holster Scheffler.
    • Hideki Matsuyama ... If Collin Morikawa wasn’t such a question mark despite slotting No. 3 in the Power Rankings, he’d be the automatic tertiary option here, but the field is wide open if you swerve around him. Matsuyama is next at No. 4, so he gets the nod here, but the format and other factors encourage an aggressive play among others if you’re off Scheffler and Young.

    Rounding out the roster

    It’s one of those weeks during which the six guys I’ve circled align with the ownership percentages. It is what it is. It’s not the first time, and it won’t be the last. The key is that both Scheffler (offense) and Young (defense) are a part of it.

    My starters

    My bench

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

    • Tommy Fleetwood ... Although it probably has something to do with “what haven’t you done for me lately?” I’m still mildly surprised that I’ve fielded zero flak about omitting him from the Power Rankings. (I prefer him on shorter courses.) Still, after five straight top 10s, he finished T33 at the Masters and T52 at the RBC Heritage. In a no-cut competition at a time when the value of starts is increasing, he presents as a contrarian, but he still populates a quarter of the rosters saved at last check, anyway.

    Tommy Fleetwood holes 33-foot greenside bunker shot for birdie on No. 10 at RBC Heritage

    Tommy Fleetwood holes 33-foot greenside bunker shot for birdie on No. 10 at RBC Heritage


    • Russell Henley ... Similarly, it’s smarter to line up longer hitters on a course that’s more likely to reward them, but the unfamiliarity breaks the tie. This won’t be the case on Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday that concludes Segment 2. It’s also a lengthy test, but he finished a career-best T5 in his ninth appearance there last year.
    • Shane Lowry ... It’s been a rough go since he settled for runner-up honors (again) at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. He hasn’t rebounded for a top 25 in six tournaments since. In a sense, it’s a good thing because we’re not influenced to exhaust a start – well, about 90 percent of us, at least – so he’s just outside our circle of trust. He’ll heat up again and likely in time to help spell others.
    • Keegan Bradley ... This attention lands in the lane of “not yet.” Admittedly having a tough time recovering from what happened at the Ryder Cup last year, the U.S. captain finally has risen for consecutive season-best finishes at the Masters (T21) and RBC Heritage (T12). Without his personal challenge, he’d probably have appeared in the Power Rankings on his fit alone, but that was ruled out due to extended inconsistency. So, only keep an eye on him on a test that should reward his skill set, but give him a piece of your DFS action as a contrarian because there’s no cut.

    Membership matters

    Alex Fitzpatrick ... It’s official. He’s accepted PGA TOUR membership. This was expected after he joined forces with his older brother, Matt, to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The ripple effect is extensive. First, he’s immediately exempt into all four remaining Signature Events this season, as well as the PGA Championship. So, the Zurich Classic was essentially the first of what is now four straight tournaments for which he’s eligible. The victory also exempts him into THE PLAYERS Championship next year, while his membership exemption extends through 2028 in the winners category. And because Alex was inside the top 10 among the eligible DP World Tour members for a 2027 PGA TOUR card (most recently slotted at No. 6), his removal means that everyone below him moves up a notch. Also, as noted in my weekly Rookie Ranking on X, Alex officially becomes a PGA TOUR rookie this season if he makes 10 starts as a member or finishes inside the top 100 of the FedExCup at the conclusion of the season. Both are foreseeable outcomes given that two-thirds of the season remain and that he debuts at 45th in the FedExCup.

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