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10D AGO

Expert Picks: WM Phoenix Open

2 Min Read

Expert Picks

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    Written by Golfbet Staff @Golfbet

    With a new season comes a new evolution for Expert Picks. Below are picks and analysis for both betting and fantasy, as fans have a new version of the PGA TOUR Fantasy Game presented by PGA TOUR Superstore for 2025. Each week our panel of experts will offer picks and analysis for the fantasy game, including insight on who will captain their roster for extra points. Users can submit their rosters via PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, with the current segment running through the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

    Our Golfbet experts will also share betting picks, both for the outright winner of the tournament and which prop markets have caught their eye.

    How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. Each lineup consists of four starters, including a captain, and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four segments.

    Aside from the expert insight below, Golfbet's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field in this week's edition of the Power Rankings and offers Fantasy-specific advice in Fantasy Insider.

    Betting picks

    WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

    Winners

    • Sam Burns (+2500): He makes a ton of birdies and has a great history at TPC Scottsdale. The market is weighed down by Scottie Scheffler at +280, which means plenty of value to be had among the other top contenders.
    • Kurt Kitayama (+7000): Kitayama’s strong form from the fall hasn’t translated into 2025, but I’ll take a flier at a steep price on a prior TOUR winner who has cracked the top 25 in each of his two previous WM Phoenix Open starts.

    Props

    • Andrew Novak, Top 20 (+260): Ride the hot hand. Novak had his first brush with contention at Torrey Pines, then followed it up with a T13 result last week at Pebble. His game can travel, and now he heads to a course where he was T8 a year ago.
    • Will there be a playoff? Yes (+350): Adjust your Super Bowl viewing plans accordingly. Last year’s overtime session between Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman was the sixth WM Phoenix Open playoff in the last nine years. There’s a gravitational pull in Scottsdale that creates ties on the 72nd hole.

    BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

    Winners

    • Justin Thomas (+1200): No place on TOUR combines current form and previous tournament form more than TPC Scottsdale, where Thomas has gone close on many occasions. The comeback solidifies here this week.
    • Sam Burns (+2500): A T6 in 2023 and a T3 in 2024 at TPC Scottsdale shows he has the desert course mapped, and he opened this season with a T8 at The Sentry.

    Props

    • Andrew Novak, Top 10 (+500): A contender at Torrey Pines recently (third) and had three good rounds last week for a T13. Opened 65-65 in Phoenix a year ago on way to a T8.
    • Daniel Berger, Top 20 (+300): He will need to keep the big number off the card, but I’m still expecting Berger to get back to the perennial contender on the PGA TOUR he used to be. Three previous WM Phoenix Open top 10s.

    CHRIS BREECE (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

    Winners

    • Hideki Matsuyama (+1600): History points to a superstar winner most years at TPC Scottsdale. I’ll take the two-time winner who also recently finished T2.
    • Robert Macintyre (+6000): What may feel like a random selection might actually be a trend. Each of his two wins last year came right after missing a cut, while still showing good form leading up. MacIntyre hasn’t been spectacular lately (T40-T53 his last two starts), but he still has two recent top-15 finishes.

    Props

    • Sahith Theegala, Top 20 (+175): The golf world fell in love with him at TPC Scottsdale three years ago after a T3 finish. Another fifth place last year confirmed he has a knack for this course. While his play hasn’t been great this season, he’s made every cut.
    • Davis Thompson, Top 20 (+250): Our course fit tool says all forms of gaining strokes around the green are important this week. Thompson sits near the top in most those stats. He also hit this Top 20 benchmark last year in Scottsdale with a T15.

    Want to see how to set up your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf lineup? Scroll below.



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    Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create a team, click the "LEAGUES" tab. Then click on "JOIN A LEAGUE," and then search the "PGA TOUR Experts league."

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