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10D AGO

Bolton: How to find value in star-studded field at WM Phoenix Open

5 Min Read

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    Written by Rob Bolton @RobBoltonGolf

    An invaluable benefit of playing on the PGA TOUR is that all commitments are optional. Indeed, where a member sits in the overall pecking order can influence his schedule, but no one has to play every time he’s eligible.

    Of course, this includes the WM Phoenix Open, which is known in part for the entirely surrounded par-3 16th hole dubbed "The Coliseum." The din extends through the par-4 17th and 18th holes, but those two present more like white noise against the brilliant green of the Bermudagrass and often cloudless, azure sky. The bottom line is, it’s a three-hole stretch unlike any other all season. No, it’s not for everybody, but the field of 132 is robust year after year, so those who are here have chosen to be. If you’re concerned about any of it as a distraction, remember that they are not when they commit.

    This tournament is the first of the second half of Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. Although two Signature Events remain – The Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard – this is still a smart time to rely on your favorites. Explanations follow below.

    Adding to the calculus of your roster management for the remainder of Segment 1 is the temporary relocation of The Genesis Invitational to Torrey Pines Golf Course. Dismiss course history at The Riviera Country Club as you map out starts for guys at TPC Scottsdale who are expected to appear next week.

    Captain

    Now that Scottie Scheffler has proven that he’s healthy enough to contend, he should be chosen as the captain in 100 percent of the rosters saved. It’s just fantasy common sense this early in the season. Accept the push in his slot and allow the rest of the roster to battle it out.

    Scottie Scheffler … The only reason you don’t designate him as your captain is if you’re saving the start. This means that you burned your first at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and you’re planning on exhausting the other two at the Signature Events. (He’s the defending champion at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.) Or, gasp, you’re not planning to use all three. If either is your strategy, it’s as bold (and unwise) as it gets. If you have only two remaining, burn them now and at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge.


    Scottie Scheffler's top shots from WM Phoenix Open wins

    Scottie Scheffler's top shots from WM Phoenix Open wins


    Other considerations

    • Hideki Matsuyama … The No. 2 in my Power Rankings. If this is where you lean, it’d be like leaving the Bugatti in the garage in favor of giving the Ferrari some air. So be it.
    • Sam Burns … As rock-solid a No. 3 in any Power Rankings, he’s the shrewd choice for contrarians. You’d need the other two stars to align as well and then pay it off with smart decisions the rest of the way, but it’s a calculated risk for the gamer who understands that a move like this is necessary to podium in Segment 1.

    Rounding out the roster

    With two more Signature Events in Segment 1, there’s reason to consider holstering the elite for them and the beefier FedExCup bonus points they will yield. However, neither Torrey Pines Golf Course nor Bay Hill will equal the increased fantasy scoring at TPC Scottsdale throughout the entirety of their tournaments, so you’d need the elite to podium to justify that approach. If you’re down to one start, use thebench as insurance. That’s how I played Rory McIlroy at Pebble Beach. It’s the veteran move.

    My starters

    • Sam Burns
    • Tom Kim
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Scottie Scheffler (C)

    My bench

    • Sungjae Im (1)
    • Justin Thomas (2)

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

    Sahith Theegala … Slotted No. 12 in the Power Rankings out of respect for his cachet, but especially at TPC Scottsdale where he’s 3-for-3 with a pair of top-five finishes. However, the gears has been slipping in 2025, and he’s without a top 35 in four starts, and with longer rough this week, he presents as a trap.

    Corey Conners ... There aren’t many stages on which he can’t shine, but we’ve yet to be wowed by the Canadian at TPC Scottsdale. Since debuting in 2020, he’s perfect in five trips but has only one top 25 (T17, 2021). Now, logic suggests that his ball-striking will play up with lusher rough, so there’s merit to test the waters in DFS but stick with proven contenders in other formats.

    Lucas Glover ... Fresh off a T3 at Pebble Beach, here’s another ball-striker with a pedestrian record at TPC Scottsdale who will benefit relative to others because of taller rough. However, in the 10 editions on the latest renovation, he’s cashed six of seven times, just not for a top 35.

    Wyndham Clark ... Second straight tournament for which he’s landed in this space. After caution ahead of his title defense at Pebble Beach, he finished T73. He presents as much more impactful in betting markets because of his firepower.

    Returning to competition

    Max Greyserman … Whether we get him at full speed is in doubt as he was forced to end his stay at Pebble Beach after three rounds. He cited an injured hand but it’s unknown which one. Given that he’s making his debut at TPC Scottsdale, that alone warrants abstaining.

    Nate Lashley … Called it quits during his second round of the Farmers Insurance Open due to an illness. The 42-year-old is among the litany of locals, and he’s paid off the knowledge in the past with a T3 in his tournament debut in 2020 and a T17 the following year, but he’s broken par just once in eight rounds on the track since.

    Paul Waring … The Brit is making his PGA TOUR membership debut as one of the top 10 from the 2024 DP World Tour, but he does so having withdrawn from his last start at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on Jan. 24 with a sore shoulder. He shared the good news with followers on Instagram the same day that “it’s nothing major.” He’s the second-to-last PGA TOUR rookie to make his first start in 2025. Only the injured Karl Vilips remains.

    Notable W/Ds

    Viktor Hovland … With zero sub-70s in eight rounds at TPC Scottsdale, it’s not the best spot for him to test his game, and we won’t miss him.

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

    Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on Twitter.