Draws and Fades: Why J.J. Spaun is worth backing at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

The third round of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday has been suspended for the second time today, this time overnight, due to inclement weather in the area. Because of the morning suspension of play, over 30 golfers are still out on the course and have yet to finish their third rounds. The final group is on No. 6 right now, and play will resume Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET.

As it stands now, J.T. Poston (+300) and Ryan Gerard (+310) are atop the leaderboard at 9 under, but Sam Burns (+210) is the betting favorite. He is 8-under par and just one stroke back from the two at the top.

With more than a round and a half to play, it’s still open season as to who is going to win this tournament. And this golf course is perfect because there are bogeys all over the place, as was the case this morning when the morning wave shot an average of 73.34, or +1.34 strokes to par, while so far, the afternoon splits are at 68.44, which is -1.56 strokes to par.

Sunday’s forecast is not nearly as gnarly as Saturday’s. The winds are much calmer, at just four to eight miles per hour, and there’s not really any rain projected. The only rain that could pop up is late in the afternoon, with maybe a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.

The lack of wind should make this course play a bit easier than it did in the first two rounds, making anyone within seven or eight strokes of the lead live to win this tournament.

Checking in on our live bets from rounds two and three, Scottie Scheffler (+3300) has made a little bit of a charge, moving up seven places and is now T12, just one stroke out of a top-10 finish. Tommy Fleetwood (+1000) has had a flat first six holes and would basically need a "Linsanity" run through the rest of the round to cash his third-round leader bet. But thanks to a hole-out eagle, Eric Cole (+1800) is in fourth place, just three strokes off the pace. He has moved from being +3500 to +1800 on the live line.

J.J. Spaun, Top 5 (+275), Top 10 (-135)

There’s still so much golf to be played for these golfers who are out on the golf course. Luckily for Spaun, he’s already on No. 13, and he won’t have to play the golf course once it’s dried out. The golfers who played later tee times had a bit of an advantage with softer course conditions and less wind than those in the morning, and Spaun (+3300) took full advantage. Through 12 holes, he’s 3 under and has moved inside the top 10.

I’m actually going to back Spaun in the placement market right now. His game fits really well here. He’s going to hit fairways, and his irons have been scorching hot.

All season, it’s just been the question of whether Spaun can putt. And while he hasn’t really been able to get much to fall, he has found a way to have his irons carry him and sneak himself up into contention week after week. I mean, look at the results – he won the Valero Texas Open. He finished T5 at the Truist Championship and T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

The start of this tournament couldn’t have been better for Spaun. He gained 2.44 strokes putting and gained another 3.04 strokes on approach. Of course, the approach numbers were insane, but the putting was something that we haven’t seen from him since his win at the Valero Texas Open.

Honestly, I was punching myself a little bit for not betting him after seeing how well he played in that first round. But in the second round, it was ugly. He lost 1.77 strokes on approach, which was absolutely dreadful by his standards, and then his putter couldn’t bail him out, losing another 1.9 strokes putting.

But in true grinder fashion, Spaun rebounded nicely. He’s three under in the third round through 12 while gaining a blistering +3.58 strokes on approach and another +1.23 off the tee. If only he could putt, he could go super low, and I think that’s the upside you have when you bet on Spaun. I don’t think he’ll have another blow-up round as he did in the second round, so there is value on his -135 top-10 price because I do think he will play well and play himself into contention. Which leads me to believe there has to be value on the top five at +275, and the way he’s hitting his irons, I have to take that number. Spaun is the type of golfer who is often undervalued in the market. If Scheffler, or even Xander Schauffele (+3300), were in his position, that +275 price would be +150 at most.