Draws and Fades: Tommy Fleetwood leads way at Muirfield Village as Scottie Scheffler looks to rally

The first round of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday is in the books, and we have four tied at the top after all four players fired off 5-under 67s.

Of the four tied for the lead, Tommy Fleetwood is the betting favorite at +650, followed by Ryan Gerard at +1200.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+750) had a brutal finish to his round. After going out 2-under 34, Scheffler bogeyed the 10th and went on to finish his back nine with a double bogey, a bogey, and just one birdie for a 3-over 39.

For those not monitoring at home, this has been a consistent theme for Scheffler this season. He starts Thursday a little slow, then spends the next three rounds making a surge and working his way into the top five, if not all the way into contention.

It was not just Scheffler who struggled at Muirfield Village. The course played difficult, just as Jack Nicklaus would want it. Only 13 golfers are under par after the first round, and the scoring average was 73.06. We can expect golfers to struggle just as much, if not more, in Friday’s second round. The wind in the first round was only 5 to 10 mph. On Friday, it jumps to 10-16 mph, with gusts up to 24 mph.

While odds are not available at the moment, you should consider betting golfers over their total bogeys or worse in the second round.

Scottie Scheffler, Top 5 (+115, including ties, FanDuel)

You can boo me all you want for this bet. I’ll live with the result. I understand this is the chalkiest possible bet I could give out. Sometimes it does not take much thought to blindly bet Scheffler at any point of a tournament, but that is not exactly what I’m doing here.

In the first round of the Memorial, Scheffler lost -2.66 strokes on approach, according to DataGolf. If that trend continues, or if he only slightly improves to around -0.5 strokes lost on approach, it would be his worst approach tournament since 2022 THE PLAYERS Championship.

That is the thing with Scheffler. You can almost always count on him to find whatever was missing from round to round. If his approach play is off, he might not immediately jump back to gaining +1.5 strokes on the field, but he will course correct. Realistically, he is only six strokes back. That sounds like a massive number, but at a place like Muirfield Village, that’s nothing.

Mentioning Scheffler’s ability to bounce back after a slow opening round is not just anecdotal. We have seen it all season. At the WM Phoenix Open, he lost almost -2.5 strokes to the field in the first round and still finished T3. At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he lost nearly four strokes to the field in the first round and still finished T4. At RBC Heritage, his first round was not great, and he still finished runner-up. Same story at the Cadillac Championship.

The list goes on. He has repeatedly started a tournament slowly and still found a way to contend come the weekend. That is why I like backing Scheffler in this market after a poor first round. He course corrects better than anyone, and Muirfield Village is the perfect place for him to do it. There is carnage all over this golf course, and he is one of the least likely players in the field to get burned by it.

Round 2 Matchup: Alex Fitzpatrick over Jacob Bridgeman, -125

It would not be a Draws and Fades column if we did not find a golfer to fade.

It pains me to fade Jacob Bridgeman because I was fortunate enough to bet him at 100-1 when he won The Genesis Invitational. Since then, though, it has been anything but smooth sailing.

After that win, Bridgeman finished T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercaard, T5 at THE PLAYERS and T14 at the Valspar Championship. Then things started to go south. It started at the Masters, where he finished T41, marking the beginning of a noticeable pattern. He has lost all confidence in his putter.

That is probably the most telling part of this poor run. Bridgeman is a great putter, but he cannot figure things out right now. He has lost strokes putting in three of his last five events and has finished no better than T33 in that stretch.

He also started this tournament poorly on the greens, losing -2.31 strokes putting in the first round, one of the worst marks in the field.

And yes, I know the golfer I am betting on lost even more strokes putting in the first round. The difference is that there were a lot of positives in Alex Fitzpatrick's (+10000) game. Despite losing -2.64 strokes putting, Fitzpatrick still shot even par. He was fantastic off the tee, gaining +2.25 strokes, and he was with his irons, gaining +1.95 strokes.

If Fitzpatrick can go out and shoot a smooth 70 or 71, I think he has a great chance to win this matchup. With the way Bridgeman is playing right now, I am comfortable backing Fitzpatrick in the second round.