Running with Rick: Scottie Scheffler a deserved favorite at demanding Muirfield Village

The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday checks all the boxes for golf fans and players alike. It’s an event brimming with tradition, on a challenging golf course, that attracts an elite field and usually results in a stellar finish. There’s not much more we can ask for, and this week should be no different.

Muirfield Village Golf Club has often been one of the most challenging courses on the schedule thanks to its length, penal rough and firm greens. Assuming Mother Nature cooperates, I would expect that recipe again this week.

The “cost of rough” for missing the fairway is one of the highest we will see all year. It’s critical to play from the fairway, with compounding mistakes on deck for those who fail that task. Approach shots will test players from all distances, ensuring they touch every club in their bag. It will challenge the top players in the world, which is exactly what the field consists of this week.

If there was ever a time to deploy Scottie Scheffler on your betting card, this week could be it. There’s no need to describe how good Scheffler has been this year, but let’s cover it just in case. Despite “only” having one win, he’s gained 2.4 strokes per round in 2026. That’s right in line with his average over the last three years, 2.44, when he won roughly 25% of the events he played during that stretch.

The only statistical category that has lagged behind this year is his approach play. He’s gaining 0.63 strokes per round this year, compared to the 1.2 per round he accomplished last year. However, his last three starts have been incredible in that department. Over 12 rounds, he compiled 16.38 strokes on approach, which averages out to 1.37 per round.

As if the timing wasn’t good enough already, he heads to Muirfield Village, where he has truly dominated over the years. In his six trips to this venue, including the 2020 Workday Charity Open, he’s gained 2.87 strokes per round. That makes Muirfield Village the second-best course on TOUR for Scheffler, behind only TPC Craig Ranch at 2.90.

Don’t worry, it gets better. Scheffler has destroyed Muirfield Village from tee to green to the tune of 3.04 strokes per round. That is the single best player-course combination in the ShotLink era. Bluntly, no golfer has ever been better from tee to green than Scheffler has been at Muirfield Village. Scheffler cements himself as my pick to win the Memorial Tournament at +265, available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tee-to-green play is going to be critical this week, and it’s one of the most correlated stats to success at Muirfield Village, especially when comparing it to other venues on the TOUR schedule. That gives Matt Fitzpatrick a significant boost since he’s been the third-best tee-to-green player in the field this season, behind only Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

He struggled a bit with the driver at Aronimink, the last time we saw him tee it up in competition, but he was still able to finish T14 thanks to his well-rounded game. He has the ability to get to the first page of the leaderboard even if he doesn’t have his best game, which is not something that can be said for every player in the field.

His relationship with Muirfield Village is strong. Fitzpatrick has three top-10 finishes here over his last six trips, and he’s gained strokes putting in three straight. If he can match his recent tee-to-green play with his historic putting at Muirfield Village, he should be in store for another good week. I’ll be backing Fitzpatrick in the top-five market, currently priced at +345.

Hideki Matsuyama has been wildly inconsistent this year, flashing signs of greatness but routinely playing himself out of tournaments. Even his best finish, the runner-up at Phoenix, was marred by one of the worst driving weeks of his career, which ended up being his demise late in the week.

However, what I saw from him last week in Fort Worth was very encouraging. He gained strokes off the tee, something that he’s rarely done in 2026. His approach play was vintage. He looked like the generational flusher that he is, gaining 5.4 strokes to the field, which ranked him sixth for the week.

Now he goes back to Muirfield Village, where he won in 2014 and has added four additional top-15 finishes since then. I’m looking to catch Matsuyama on the verge of this breakthrough at one of the better courses on TOUR for him. I’ll be investing in his top-10 number, currently priced at +300.

Min Woo Lee has always been one of the TOUR’s most exciting players. He can bomb it off the tee, loves chipping in and can make birdies in bunches. Now his stat profile is showing legitimate signs of his game maturing and becoming more consistent, which makes me even more excited than usual.

Lee is having the best year of his career on TOUR, gaining 1.11 strokes per round in 2026. He has the highest top-five rate, top-10 rate and top-20 rate of his career. He also has the lowest missed-cut rate of his career. By just about any measure, Min Woo Lee is playing the best golf of his life right now.

This has almost entirely been attributed to his improved approach play. Now, it’s all relative because Min Woo is simply an average player in strokes gained approach this year. He’s gaining just 0.02 strokes per round, but that is a massive improvement over every other season in his career. Last year, for example, he lost 0.51 strokes per round. The fact that he’s now simply average is worth two full strokes over a four-round tournament.

He’s plugged that leak in his game, and now the results are following. He enters this week coming off three straight top-20 finishes in two signature events and the PGA Championship. The ask from me is that he makes it four straight. His appealing top-20 price for this week is +108.

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