The first three Golfbet Insiders of Segment 4 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf could be binged as one comprehensive plan. This is the third in the series.

Because the RBC Canadian Open launched us into the final phase, and because most notables rested that week, it presented the perfect timing to preview Segment 4 as a whole. It was a primer that suggested separating the 12 contributing events into two sections, the latter of which is theFedExCup Playoffs in which FedEx bonus points are quadrupled.

The GI for the U.S. Open drew attention to the array of unknowns at LACC and how overall scoring will be muted, most importantly in comparison to what we’re going to experience in the Playoffs. With the third major in the books, we can glance at how the scoring was affected.

I’m going to grant that you can feel the impact of fantasy scoring in any tournament, so it’s worth mentioning only that the top fantasy scorer at LACC totaled 417 points. FedEx bonus points were beefier than a non-major, but not by much. Wyndham Clark's victory yielded 10 more bonus points than a regular non-major (60 v. 50), and he wasn’t a popular selection with just two percent of users rostering the breakthrough major champion. (Runner-up Rory McIlroy ranked seventh overall at 34 percent.)

Further, consider that the fantasy winner of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday scored 414 points. Because the difference in fantasy champions was only three points (or 0.72 percent), we can call it a statistical tie, but Memorial was a Designated event, not a major. It doesn’t matter that Viktor Hovland was fifth-most owned at 43 percent en route to victory.

The top fantasy scorer of the RBC Canadian Open hit 460 points, and neither leader of the two aforementioned tournaments that flanked it would’ve cracked the top 50 for which the cutoff was 426 points.

This is why the opening GI of Segment 4 encouraged you to examine your own situation. Play for the Playoffs and accept pushes in the interim if it means you might get a leg up in the context of starts remaining per stud.

The Travelers Championship is the last Designated event of the season, but the champion will earn 500 points, just like Nick Taylor banked at Oakdale. Every gamer with the Travelers champion rostered in the final round will collect 50 FedEx bonus points, and that’s great, but that’s still four short of a fourth-place finish in any of the three Playoffs events. A runner-up will add 30 bonus points, which is equivalent to but a 10th-place finish in the Playoffs.

For as long as PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf has awarded FedEx bonus points, your objective is to manage the potential of 200 for a victory in the Playoffs against burning a start now. Because starts aren’t as valuable in Segments 1, 2 and 3, the thinking is different. If you are burning starts on guys like Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm now, then you are betting against them finishing in the top four in all of the last three tournaments of the season. Even if you connect with a victory now, you’re hedging that they’re going to crumble nearer the finish line. It’s definitely an option and a strategy, but it’s bold and unwise given the long-term dynamic of this game. If you shoot your shot now and score, your celebration likely will be short-lived.

This force is so strong that it can be worth absorbing a zero in the third round at TPC River Highlands in favor of saving a start on Scheffler or Rahm. Then, if either guy happens to be sitting on a lead entering the finale, then consider burning it, because it’s likely that your target or nearest pursuer is doing the same, so at least you’re pushing in the column of total starts to retain position in total points. This is because a fourth-place finish in the Playoffs still isn’t an automatic.

Decisions boil down to your situation. There isn’t a model. There are so many different ways to win your league in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. There are just as many ways to be beaten, but you can eliminate the possibility of beating yourself with sound planning and careful execution.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Thomas (+140 = Miss the Cut) … In addition to the result, the bet also loops in what would be his first 0-for-3 since the summer of 2017, but, and of course, he’s playing only the Travelers Championship this week. All related storylines merely are for the record. It’s fair to wonder if he’d have taken this week off if he didn’t burn his DNP at the Match Play, but as a PIP performer, he’s committed. So, it all boils down to his mindset, which we can’t quantify or read despite the rhetoric. As noted in Recap below, last week’s prop to Miss the Cut was +170, and the cut at the U.S. Open was low 60 and ties. This week’s cut returns to the customary low 65 and ties. It’s not that it’s significantly easier to cash, it’s not, but his odds of having the weekend off have shortened for obvious reasons. He’s also connected for only one top 25 at TPC River Highlands in seven tries. It was a T3 but it was seven years ago. In the big picture, I’d love for him to have a moment to reset and clear the mechanism. After that slump in 2017, he went on to win the PGA Championship and the Dell Technologies Championship en route to winning the FedExCup.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, June 21, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Wyndham Clark (+170 = Miss the Cut) … The U.S. Open champion is not a PIP performer, so he’d risk nothing by resting this week. Needless to say, he’s earned it and no one would have thrown shade if he opted out. So, kudos to him for honoring the commitment. If anything, it could be easier pickings for us on the comedown. Even if he had a glowing record at TPC River Highlands, it’d be the play, but that’s not the case, either. Just 2-for-5 with one top 30 (T15, 2019). By the way, no matter how you’d want to critique last week, he blew the field away in the all-around ranking, so the U.S. Open truly did reveal the best in the field. This always is a narrative in advance of that tournament, and he deserves that reminder for fulfilling it.

Max Homa (+170 = Miss the Cut) … Sat out the Memorial, so this was a promise to play. Like JT, Homa also missed the cut at the U.S. Open. It’s not how the Hollywood script had it written with the local hero in the major, but the golf gods don’t care. This week’s challenge will be attempting to reverse the curse at TPC River Highlands where he’s 0-for-4 through 2021. Not that the golf gods care about this, either, but the last time he missed consecutive cuts on his own ball was in, yep, 2021 at, yep, the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship.

Tony Finau (-190 = Top 40) … Finau joined Homa as the PIP performers who burned their DNPs at Memorial, but Finau has more momentum, if only by a smidgen. He’s coming off a T32 at LACC where he was 6-over on the weekend, so it could’ve been better, but he still paid off the top-40 prop if you were on board. Additionally, all four of his paydays at TPC River Highlands are top 25s, including last year’s T13 after missing the cut in the U.S. Open. Generally speaking, I never worry about his energy level because he travels a little more than usual and he’s tailored his talent to the stage for as long as we can remember. Still, I’m respecting the above-average possibility for a letdown in a big, hungry field.

Jason Day (+170 = Miss the Cut) … Burned his DNP at the RBC Heritage and he’s just 1-for-5 since with the victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson. No need to reach for a rebound and against this field.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim (+188 = All to Make the Cut)
Ludvig Åberg (-120 = Top Swedish)
Sam Bennett (+200 = Top 40)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+100 = Top South African)
Corey Conners (+110 = Top Canadian)
Charley Hoffman (+300 = Top 40)
Viktor Hovland (-200 = Top Scandinavian)
Ryan Moore (+350 = Top 40)
Chez Reavie (+225 = Top 40)
Adam Scott (+300 = Top Australian)
Michael Thorbjornsen (+260 = Top 40)
Dylan Wu (+250 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Webb Simpson (+150 = Top 40) … He was a late scratch from the RBC Canadian Open due to an illness, so he’s rested for a month. Currently 159th in the FedExCup, TPC River Highlands presents a Fountain of Youth for the 37-year-old. He’s 9-for-10 with two top 10s and a pair of T13s, the more recent of which was just a year ago.

David Lingmerth … Called it quits during his second round of the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago due to an injured back. It dropped him to 1-for-7 since April. The 35-year-old Swede has shown flashes, and on tough tracks, but he remains most valuable in deeper full-season rosters. Placed T19 in his last trip to TPC River Highlands, but that was five years ago.

Kevin Yu … First action since Pebble Beach in early February due to a torn meniscus in his left knee that required surgery on Feb. 20. By waiting until now to return, he’s not only as ready as he needs to be but he’s also eligible for a medical extension in the newly constructed reshuffle category in 2024, if necessary. He’s 100th in the FedExCup thanks to early-season successes built on strong tee-to-green proficiency. This is a bonus to his faithful full-season owners but weekly gamers should give him an opportunity to shed the rust in a Designated event.

J.B. Holmes … TPC River Highlands is hosting a stacked field but there shouldn’t be any problem identifying the five-time PGA TOUR winner all the while he searches for form. He’s just 2-for-8 and without a top 65 in what’s been a hardscrabble season. A chronically sore back continues to get in the way of success and he hasn’t appeared in official action since late April. Still has 18 starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension, but he doesn’t belong on rosters in formats that reward performance.

Philip Knowles … The rookie had poked his head into the field at the RBC Canadian Open but he didn’t last long and withdrew just after the commitment deadline. This week, he’s poised to try again at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Compliance Solutions Championship. He’s been sidelined for over four months after severing a nerve in his right thumb on Feb. 1, and then had surgery for it three weeks later.

DNPs

Sam Burns … The PIP performer is burning his allotted break in the Designated events. It’s his first breather in six weeks. Currently 14th in the FedExCup with the victory at the Match Play.

Jordan Spieth … Like Burns, Spieth also is spending his free pass to sit out the last Designated event. If it seems odd that he’d do so at the Travelers Championship where he authored one of the shots of the previous decade, consider that since that epic hole-out and celebration in the playoff to win the 2017 edition, he’s just 2-for-4 and without a top 40 in the tournament.

Tiger Woods … Not that we need to monitor the clock on his recovery from surgery on his right ankle on April 19, but as one of the 23 PIP performers, he’s again just inside the focus of the Designated event. He remains sidelined indefinitely.

Will Zalatoris … He’s been feeling great since the relief yielded by a microdiscectomy on April 8, but he isn’t expected to play again this season.

NOTABLE WDs

Taylor Montgomery … His debut in the Travelers remains on ice. If you don’t own him in a season-long league and it seems like he’s been quiet, it’s because he has been. He’s gone five months with only one top-30 finish on his own ball and in stroke-play competition (T22, Valero). The slide has opened the door for Eric Cole to overtake Montgomery as top rookie in the FedExCup.

Alex Noren … The only surprise here is that he committed in the first place. The 40-year-old played in three straight in the U.S., and then jetted to his native Sweden and finished T10 in the DP World Tour event there, and then returned to the Los Angeles for the U.S. Open. He’s 120th in the FedExCup, but the decision not to play is addition by subtraction as it concerns his physical fitness over time.

Aaron Wise … Since taking a break for his mental health, he’s 1-for-4 with a T50 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s 109th in the FedExCup but he’s fully exempt in 2024 for having advanced to the TOUR Championship in 2022.

Dylan Frittelli … This is his second consecutive early withdrawal since exiting his opening round at Muirfield Village due to an illness. It’s been a rough season for the 33-year-old from South Africa. He’s 139th in the FedExCup and not yet fully exempt for 2024.

RECAP – U.S. Open

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Scottie Scheffler = 3rd
2 Brooks Koepka = T17
3 Jon Rahm = T10
4 Viktor Hovland = 19th
5 Rory McIlroy = 2nd
6 Patrick Cantlay = T14
7 Tyrrell Hatton = T27
8 Xander Schauffele = T10
9 Cameron Smith = 4th
10 Max Homa = MC
11 Rickie Fowler = T5
12 Matt Fitzpatrick = T17
13 Jordan Spieth = MC
14 Patrick Reed = T56
15 Justin Rose = MC
16 Tommy Fleetwood = T5
17 Shane Lowry = T20
18 Hideki Matsuyama = T32
19 Adam Scott = MC
20 Corey Conners = MC

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result
Adam Hadwin (+160 = Top 40) = 59th
Yuto Katsuragawa (+650 = Top 40) = 58th
Vincent Norrman (+240 = Top 40) = MC
Matthieu Pavon (+375 = Top 40) = MC
*Gordon Sargent (+200 = Top 40) = T39

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
*Wild Card: Justin Thomas (+170 = Miss the Cut) = MC
Also Starring: Jason Day (-150 = Top 40) = MC
*Also Starring: Tony Finau (-200 = Top 40) = T32
*Also Starring: Dustin Johnson (+150 = Top 20) = T10
Tap-in: PARLAY: Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler (+275 = Both to Finish in the Top 10) = T17/3rd
Tap-in: PARLAY: Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose (+500 = Both to Finish in the Top 20) = T5/MC
*Tap-in: PARLAY: Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson (+160 = Both to Finish in the Top 40) = T5/T10
*Tap-in: PARLAY: Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood (+138 = All to Make the Cut) = T17/T14/T5
Tap-in: PARLAY: Mito Pereira, Sahith Theegala, Keegan Bradley (+220 = All to Make the Cut) = MC/T27/MC
Tap-in: Sam Bennett (+300 = Top 40) = T43
Tap-in: Corey Conners (+200 = Top Canadian) = MC
Tap-in: Ryan Fox (+120 = Top 40) = T43
*Tap-in: Padraig Harrington (+175 = Top Senior) = T27
Tap-in: Kurt Kitayama (+450 = Top 20) = MC
Tap-in: Matt Kuchar (+150 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Phil Mickelson (+140 = Make the Cut) = MC
*Tap-in: Cameron Smith (+250 = Top Australasian) = 4th
Tap-in: Carson Young (+1600 = Top Debutant) = MC
Returning: Collin Morikawa (+275 = Top 10) = T14

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