Within every series of decisions that determine a roster for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, preliminary considerations must be made. It’s no different than how any golf hole is played, but instead of distance, wind, elevation and hole location, we factor in timing in a Segment, position in our league, starts remaining for all golfers and how we want to use the bench.

Of course, neither plan is limited to only those factors. At the U.S. Open, there are unknowns as commensurate to the 156 golfers in the field as they are to us, but because we play fantasy, they come first, so we’re left with fewer things to control.

The biggie for us on the North Course at The Los Angeles Country Club is scoring.

Because there are three par 5s and there’s been enough analysis sprinkled into the chatter that there are going to be more par breakers than usual, I’m feeling confident that the familiar narrative of the brutality of the test as a whole at the U.S. Open will ride in the backseat. In its favor will be the tricks, thrills and oddities that will generate memorable storylines. LACC presents so much elasticity that its compelling presentation will trigger the kinds of conversations that will overshadow whatever score prevails. As it should be.

All that said, there are going to be some seriously crooked numbers, but no matter the damage, the worst we can score on any hole is minus-3 points. Still, this is how one of the occasional subsets of strategy steps out front this week.

Until we have the pulse of LACC under predictable conditions, we need to let it come to us. Therefore, attached to your roster management of the week and extending deeper into Segment 4, consider riding your R1 starters in R2 no matter the tee times. Yes, it’s a major, but as I detailed in this space last week, don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Retain focus on the FedExCup Playoffs because none of the three tournaments in that series will have a cut and FedEx bonus points will be quadrupled.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Justin Thomas (+170 = Miss the Cut) … Sigh. This is his second consecutive appearance as the Wild Card. He missed the cut at Muirfield Village, which, if I had just stuck to the evidence that guided me to the same expectation at the Masters – which it was despite how well odds favor experience and golfers in their prime at Augusta National, not to mention top talent in general – I’d resist wanting to believe in a rebound and its value to us. It’s going to happen at some point because he’s JT, but fool me twice and all that. It’s noteworthy to add that he’s wielding new irons. I’m not turned off by that specifically for lots of reasons, but that a guy who led the universe in proficiency with those sticks last season is making the change for a major is more telling than, say, if the U.S. Open wasn’t a major. It’s a peek behind the curtain of his confidence that has been dented by inconsistency on approach in recent months.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, June 14, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Jason Day (-150 = Top 40) … No problem limping into this prop for the Aussie who’s just 1-for-4 upon arrival. Granted, the singular payday was a drought-ending victory at TPC Craig Ranch, but in the macro, it’s still just one (wildly successful) week. He’s also ending a two-year hiatus at the U.S. Open, and in the last four in which he’s appeared, none went for a top 40, so this default is a nice compromise. Like JT (above), Day also is gripping new irons this week, but the primary motivation is procedural for the test versus part of a greater plan to quell concerns.

Tony Finau (-200 = Top 40) … I’d dig if there was a market for a top 30, so shop around, but the conservative in me isn’t that excited about him at the moment. Yes, he’s a recent winner in Mexico, but as his play overall has risen in the last couple of years, it’s regressed in the majors. He cashed in five of his last six in the series, but none went for a top 25. So, ignore his glossy full-season metrics and split the unit with an aggressive play.

Dustin Johnson (+150 = Top 20) … Here’s the angle: Since his first season of competing in at least two majors per year in 2009, he’s never gone a series without at least one top 20. On top of that, he’s in an active streak of five years with at least two per. So, after a pair of results outside the top 45 to open the 2023 set, the 38-year-old is poised to extend at the U.S. Open on a course where the fingerprints of George C. Thomas, Jr., are all over. That’s relevant given that Thomas also co-designed nearby Riviera where DJ prevailed in 2017 and has 10 top 10s.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler (+275 = Both to Finish in the Top 10)
PARLAY: Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose (+500 = Both to Finish in the Top 20)
PARLAY: Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson (+160 = Both to Finish in the Top 40)
PARLAY: Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood (+138 = All to Make the Cut)
PARLAY: Mito Pereira, Sahith Theegala, Keegan Bradley (+220 = All to Make the Cut)
Sam Bennett (+300 = Top 40)
Corey Conners (+200 = Top Canadian)
Ryan Fox (+120 = Top 40)
Padraig Harrington (+175 = Top Senior)
Kurt Kitayama (+450 = Top 20)
Matt Kuchar (+150 = Top 40)
Phil Mickelson (+140 = Make the Cut)
Cameron Smith (+250 = Top Australasian)
Carson Young (+1600 = Top Debutant)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Collin Morikawa (+275 = Top 10) … He’s fine now, but we still need to tie off the loose end that frayed when he couldn’t go in the final round of the Memorial due to back spasms. He made clear in Tuesday’s presser at LACC not to read into how he’s going to look while teeing up his ball. To avoid an instantaneous setback, he’s planning to squat instead of bend – anyone who’s been beset by an injured back can understand and empathize – but the swing is unaffected. He’s just 26 years old, so he’s spry, but he’s no dummy. One of his repeated messages was how he was planning for four rounds this week. On one hand, it’s exactly what you expect him to say, but on the other, a pep talk with hot mics and live cameras can’t hurt. He’s struggled too much for his talent for too long in recent months, but because he’s among the small smattering to have competed at LACC in recent memory (2017 Walker Cup), anything short of a top 10 would be a disappointment. So, because there’s more negative than positive to this player, my endorsement is for the value he presents for that target.

NOTABLE WDs

Will Zalatoris … Just entered his third month since having a microdiscectomy on April 8. He is not expected to play again this season.

Tiger Woods … Monday, June 19, will mark two months since he underwent surgery on his right ankle.

RECAP – RBC Canadian Open

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Rory McIlroy = T9
2 Tyrrell Hatton = T3
3 Corey Conners = T20
4 Matt Fitzpatrick = T20
5 Justin Rose = 8th
6 Shane Lowry = T43
7 Sam Burns = MC
8 Tommy Fleetwood = P2
9 Sahith Theegala = T38
10 Joseph Bramlett = DNP
11 David Lipsky = MC
12 Adrian Meronk = MC
13 Michael Kim = T43
14 Carson Young = T43
15 Grayson Murray = MC

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result
*Eric Cole (-125 = Top 40) = T6
Myles Creighton (+400 = Top 40) = MC
Ben Silverman (+200) = Top 40) = MC
*Alex Smalley (-120 = Top 40) = T25
Kyle Westmoreland (+275 = Top 40) = MC

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Cameron Young (-145 = Top 20) = T57
*Also Starring: Matt Kuchar (+160 = Top 20) = T20
Also Starring: Keith Mitchell (-275 = Make the Cut) = MC
Also Starring: Webb Simpson (+138 = Top 40) = DNP
Tap-in: PARLAY: Sahith Theegala, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell (+140 = All to Make the Cut) = T38/T20/MC
Tap-in: Aaron Baddeley (+138 = Top Australian) = MC
Tap-in: Aaron Cockerill (+175 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Zecheng Dou (+500 = Top Asian) = MC
Tap-in: Tommy Gainey (+400 = Top 40) = MC
*Tap-in: Cody Gribble (+333 = Top 40) = T34
*Tap-in: Maverick McNealy (+125 = Miss the Cut) = MC
Tap-in: Adrian Meronk (+250 = Top Continental European) = MC
Tap-in: Vincent Norrman #1 (+188 = Top Swedish) = MC
Tap-in: Vincent Norrman #2 (+300 = Top Scandinavian) = MC
*Tap-in: Dylan Wu (+120 = Top 40) = T25
*Returning: Brendon Todd (+110 = Top 40) = T34

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