Golfbet Insider: WM Phoenix Open

If you’re reading this on your desktop, then this page looks a lot different than it did a week ago, or even a day ago. Welcome to the new PGATOUR.com!

If it’s lost on you that the PGA TOUR’s app was updated before its website, then congratulations, you are not of a certain age. Then again, I’m only about 15 months old as a user of a smartphone, so maybe I’m alone in that lane. Whatever the case, fresh coats of paint are fun but the engines and technical doohickeys that now are powering both experiences are current, and those are the things that really make the difference.

Striding lockstep is the new home page for Golfbet. When you’re done perusing what I’ve put together for the WM Phoenix Open, click on Golfbet at the very top and take a peek. For the record, I’m consuming everything fresh right along with you, so I’m just as eager to see how it develops and where we go. No question that coverage is more robust, but always reach out if you struggle to find something.

In the meantime, I’m piggybacking my introduction of what is now Golfbet Insider with targeted markets for notables not included in my Power Rankings and Sleepers for the WM Phoenix Open.

Below the grandfathered Power Rankings Wild Card are two new sections. There are short explanations parked inside both, but the focus overall is sharper than it was most recently for Draws and Fades and iterations before that. And that’s a good thing, gang.

While I’ve handpicked props at BetMGM for all golfers cited for betting purposes, use the cues for fantasy considerations as well. If I’ve omitted notables, such as Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry, it’s because there aren’t any bets on the board that are compelling for me to recommend. It also probably means that I’m cool on each in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf and other pursuits.

My plan is to adhere to this format. I’m also going to add a recap of all recommendations beginning with next week’s Golfbet Insider. This will allow us to track and learn from the bets. Hey, when you get such a spiffy overhaul, you want to decorate it appropriately.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Viktor Hovland (+125 = Top 20) … Kinda crazy that he’s missed the cut in both prior appearances, but that fact stands out for one of the best in the world who misses few cuts. Consider that he’s missed only seven of 75 on the PGA TOUR as a professional. The course isn’t a problem. He’s exceptionally accurate off the tee and the greens are sizable, so he’s not chasing pars with a short game that has dogged him in the past. If it’s not just an unfairly small sample size, then it might be how it fits his eyes. Hey, that’s good for all gamers. In a field like this, it’s OK to tap into a skill set like his to play against course-history buffs in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, but this bet also is worthy.

Odds sourced on Wednesday, February 8th at 2 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Jordan Spieth (+188 = Miss the Cut) … Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Denny McCarthy, Seamus Power. In alphabetical order, they are notables who missed the cut in last year’s WM, and we could play this game in every edition. In fact, Spieth himself has missed it twice in six trips. It’s a bit of a numbers game in that the 36-hole cut still is low 65 and ties, but the depth of the field is off the charts, so it’s just plain tougher to play better than the rest. Oh, and if you had him to miss the cut at Waialae four weeks ago, you got paid despite the fact that he was a first-round co-leader. Take the plus value for a lean into inconsistencies in his game at the moment.

Jason Day (+180 = Top 20) … If he wasn’t a sometimer with a sketchy record at TPC Scottsdale, it’s fair to wonder how short he’d be, but there’s no reason to exercise that thought. Just say thank you. He’s off to a wicked start in 2023 with a T18 at PGA West and a T8 at Torrey Pines, and that essentially is an extension from a strong fall during which he connected for a trio of top 20s and a T21. The best part is that he still is in possession of the skill set that lifted him to No. 1 in the world, so he’s poised to pay this off.

Cameron Young (+333 = Miss the Cut) … This has everything to do with wondering how well (and quickly) he will adjust from the stress of the runner-up finish at the Saudi International on Sunday in tandem with the travel to Arizona. No, I know that’s he’s not sitting in 32F on three flights with the rest of us, but he’s still human and that’s a long way away in a short period of time. The fatigue can manifest immediately or the adrenaline can wear off by Friday, but somewhere in there the grind is promised. And to task himself with keeping the feels lit on this stage will be easier said than done. Yes, there have been exceptions – there always are exceptions – but invest a fraction of a unit and watch what happens.

Brian Harman (+220 = Top 20) … I wish that there was a market for Top Lefthander every week. Granted, there are only three in this field with Garrick Higgo and open qualifier Brett White rounding out the fraternity at the WM, but consider that there are markets with only two players each for Top Australian, Top Scandinavian, Top Scot and Top South American. Think about it. Would you have taken Hank Lebioda (T15) over Higgo (T20) at Pebble Beach last week? If you could have, you should have! Anyway, I do love that Harman sort of stumbled in his last two starts after his Georgia Bulldogs cruised to another national title on the gridiron. That’s retained nice value for this prop for a guy how has exhibited the kind of firepower you expect from a supreme talent in his prime. He also recorded a personal-best T14 in what was his ninth start at TPC Scottsdale last year.

Alex Noren (+375 = Top 10) … Have you seen what’s he’s been up to lately! The Swede closed out 2022 with a T4 in Houston and a co-runner-up at the DP World Tour Championship. Rested two months, and then he picked up where he left off with a T5 in Abu Dhabi. Also 3-for-3 at TPC Scottsdale with a 14-under 67-68-67-68=270 for a T6 last year.

J.J. Spaun (+110 = Top 40) … Can’t omit one of the stars of the season, especially for this positive kickback for what should be a roll-out-of-bed achievement. He’s 18th on TOUR in greens hit and eighth in scrambling, which forever is a potent combo. Although this is his first return in three years, he’s 3-for-4 at TPC Scottsdale with a T4 in his debut in 2017. The 32-year-old also ranks third in R1 scoring, so toss a fraction of a unit at him to be inside the top five after one round. He’s on the board at +1400 for that prop.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+150 = Top 40)

Keegan Bradley (+220 = Top 20)

Corey Conners (+225 = Top Canadian)

Rickie Fowler (-125 = Top 40)

Tyrrell Hatton (+180 = Top 20)

Tom Hoge (-110 = Top 40)

Si Woo Kim (-110 = Top 40)

Chris Kirk (+275 = Top 20)

Denny McCarthy (+110 = Top 40)

Seamus Power (+250 = Top 20)

Andrew Putnam (+125 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Maverick McNealy … You hate seeing the local kid go down, but he couldn’t take the pain in his left shoulder anymore, so he called it quits during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and on the host course no less. There’s always next year, but there’s also this week. He’s a first-timer at TPC Scottsdale and we’d be putting trust in his physical therapy to consider, so use it as an opportunity to watch the wing.

Andrew Landry … He cited a sore right shoulder as his reason for withdrawing during last week’s second round. The 35-year-old has been dealing with sore shoulders due to impingements in both for the better part of a year now. Given that the WM field was at 134 on Tuesday night and that he wouldn’t be replaced by an alternate unless it drops below 132, he’s not “taking a spot” from anyone, so expect him to give it a go on Thursday morning. Where available, strongly consider Cameron Champ in this 3-ball with Landry and Robert Streb.

NOTABLE WDs

Tiger Woods … The WM is the second designated event of the season but it’s the first for which he’s eligible. He’s made it clear that his playing schedule will remain curtailed significantly.

Adam Scott … No doubt resting for The Genesis Invitational next week – it’s the next designated event – so he’ll burn his opt-out this week.

Will Zalatoris … Also opting out.

Lanto Griffin … It hasn’t been the worst of returns to action since sitting out a few months after a microdiscectomy, so we’ll call it a tease. He’s gone 3-for-3 on two tours in three weeks but hasn’t delivered a top 35. Early performances will be key for him. Because he’s set for a medical extension in 2024, if necessary, camping out within sight of the top 125 on the FedExCup – he’s currently 187th – would generate incentive to play regularly. However, if he slumps, he’ll be cautious about burning future starts on the medical this season. Bottom line, while he easily is equipped for that not to be an issue, dancing on a razor blade like that can be unnecessarily stressful. With the insurance promised, it’s like hitting a shot not to be wayward rather than focusing solely on the target. Kind of fascinating to watch play out but if you’re invested, it has its own measure of stress associated to it.

John Huh … Has yet to play in 2023. In fact, he’s withdrawn early from all four commitments. Elbow tendinitis was cited the week of The American Express, but the report didn’t specify which arm. Cashed four times in the fall and sits 165th in the FedExCup, but the frustration to start and stop is crushing the hope for a fruitful return.

RECAP – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result

1 Matt Fitzpatrick MC

2 Jordan Spieth T63

3 Seamus Power T15

4 Tom Hoge T48

5 Maverick McNealy WD

6 Viktor Hovland T13

7 Andrew Putnam MC

8 Denny McCarthy T4

9 Nick Taylor T20

10 Justin Rose Win

11 Kevin Streelman T63

12 Troy Merritt MC

13 Russell Knox T41

14 Matt Kuchar MC

15 Joel Dahmen T41

Wild Card Keith Mitchell T4

SLEEPERS

Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) Result

Nate Lashley (+270 for a Top 20) WD

David Lipsky (+220 for a Top 20) MC

Lanto Griffin T58

Ben Silverman MC

Justin Suh WD

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