Odds Outlook: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm share favorite status at TPC Scottsdale
4 Min Read
Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott
The Greenest Show on Grass will be even greener this season at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. The first full-field designated event of 2023 will offer a prize pool of $20 million, with the winner taking home $3.6 million plus 500 FedExCup points. And leading the way on the odds board are a pair of red-hot European stars.
Fresh off his third win in his last seven worldwide events, world No. 1 Rory McIlroy headlines the super field of 135 as a +800 co-favorite according to oddsmakers at BetMGM. The Ulsterman's worst payday from those seven events is T4. Usually he’s in the desert in the Middle East to start the season, as he'll be making just his second visit to Scottsdale (T13, 2021).
The other co-favorite this week at +800 is former Arizona State Sun Devil Jon Rahm. The Spaniard's quest to win his first three starts of calendar 2023 fell short, as he claimed T7 at Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines. Winning is nothing new to the world's No. 3 player, as he's racked up four trophies in his last seven worldwide starts including the first designated event of 2023 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He's never missed the cut in seven starts in Scottsdale, but T5 as a student at ASU in 2015 remains his best of the bunch.
The crowd on the famous 16th hole is impossible to ignore, and so is world No. 2 and defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+1200). He'll look to join Hideki Matsuyama as the only winners to defend this title since the mid-1970s. The Japanese start went back-to-back in 2016 and 2017 and is +2800 to add a third title this week. Scheffler hasn't won since slipping on the green jacket last April.
Others to keep an eye on in this star-studded field on the super weekend are the California boys Xander Schauffele (+1200) and Patrick Cantlay (+1600). Schauffele has painted the podium with T3 and T2 the last two seasons while never missing the cut from five tries. Cantlay made his debut on Tom Weiskopf's 2015 redesign last season and was knocked out in a three-hole playoff by Scheffler proving he's a quick study.
Other studs from the top 10 in the OWGR this week include major champion Collin Morikawa (+2000), who went close at Sentry Tournament of Champions (2nd) and solo third at Torrey Pines in his two starts of 2023. Justin Thomas (+2200) has never finished outside of T17 among the party and ruckus and returns for the ninth consecutive season. Recently married, he's still looking for his game to click into gear as he enters on T25-T25.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300), No. 10 in the most recent rankings, provides the longest odds among the top 10 and will look to improve on his T10 debut here from 2022. After a missed cut at Pebble on Sunday, his week should start on schedule in Arizona.
While he doesn't reside in the OWGR top 10 like the folks above, Max Homa (+2200) rolls into the desert party off a win at Torrey plus a T3 finish at Sentry. His last seven worldwide events have produced T23 or better and include two wins and two T3 paydays.
Some notable past champs in the field this week facing longer odds include 2019 champ Rickie Fowler (+8000), 2018 winner Gary Woodland (+10000) and 2020 victor Webb Simpson (+20000).
The intersection of Super Bowl week and the most attended PGA TOUR event annually provides plenty of drama and proper noise. Here’s a look at some of the other notable opening odds for what should be a memorable event, via BetMGM:
+800: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm
+1200: Scottie Scheffler
+1600: Xander Schauffele
+1800: Patrick Cantlay
+2000: Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau
+2200: Justin Thomas, Max Homa
+2800: Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im
+3000: Tom Kim
+3300: Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland
+4000: Jordan Spieth, Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns
+5000: Alex Noren, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Taylor Montgomery, Tyrrell Hatton
+6600: Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Russell Henley, Seamus Power, Shane Lowry, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood
+8000: Aaron Wise, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, J.T. Poston, K.H. Lee, Lucas Herbert, Maverick McNealy, Rickie Fowler, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge
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