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Statistically Speaking: Finding an edge for the Sanderson Farms Championship

4 Min Read

Golfbet News

    Written by Mike Glasscott @MikeGlasscott

    All-time shots from the TOUR Championship

    Drive for show, putt for dough. We’ve all heard it before but the numbers suggest you better do both well this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

    With the Country Club of Jackson hosting for the ninth consecutive season we have the luxury of a dive deep into the numbers of previous winners in our quest to maximize our fantasy or betting goals this week.

    John Fought's late 2000's redesign melded the two nines into a par-72 that can stretch to 7,461 yards. One of the longer courses on the schedule, it still gives up plenty of low scores to the players on song.

    Bermudagrass returns to the menu this week. Champion is on the 6,200 square feet (on average) putting surfaces and will push 13 slick feet on the Stimpmeter. The rough is a combination of 419 Bermuda and Zoysiagrass at two inches so recovery shots are playable, but not maybe ideally controllable.

    The average winning total over the previous eight editions hovers at 19 under and the tournament scoring record was established on 22 under last year by Sam Burns. Will Zalatoris also set the course record (61) last year and there were 47 bogey free rounds. Seven players were 20-under or better.

    The streak of six consecutive first time winners was broken in the 2020-21 season and extended last year with Burns. The only playoff was in the 2019-20 season. Of the eight champions, six were aged 20-29 and two were 40 and 41.

    Key Statistics

    Only players listed are competing this week; click stat headline for additional players; Stats from 2021-22 completed season.

    With some of the tighter fairways on TOUR (just 28 acres total) being able to play from the short grass to control approach shots is paramount. The last four winners have ranked first, first, fourth and second in this category and that sets the table for scoring chances. Those of you who are curious for KFT graduates stats please click here and navigate.

    6Brendan Steele
    7Luke List
    13Hayden Buckley
    18Emiliano Grillo
    21Trey Mullinax
    23Keegan Bradley
    24Austin Smotherman
    32Nick Hardy
    35Chris Kirk
    39Joseph Bramlett

    Bermuda greens pushing 13 feet on the Stimpmeter will keep the players attention until the putt disappears into the hole. Before last season the previous seven winners gained 49% of their strokes on the greens. The last two winners were T1 GIR so they didn't fall into the upper end of this category. The previous six winners all registered in the top seven. Country Club of Jackson ranks in the top 10 annually for most three putts and putting inside five feet.

    2Denny McCarthy
    3Brendon Todd
    6Christiaan Bezuidenhout
    10Sam Burns
    12Martin Trainer
    13Chesson Hadley
    14Mackenzie Hughes
    24Adam Long
    30Patrick Rodgers
    31Wyndham Clark

    Different angle this week as it relates to the field. Of the four par-5 holes, three play 584 yards or deeper including both on the front nine. More power rather than precision needed this time around. Of the eight winners, seven registered in the top nine and the worst of the bunch was T12.

    T7Sam Burns
    T14Mark Hubbard
    T17Seamus Power
    T24Sahith Theegala
    T24Brandon Wu
    T32Michael Gligic
    T32Trey Mullinax
    T32JT Poston
    T32Rory Sabbatini
    T32Robert Streb

    As shown above, putting is a key stat in a shootout. Time to take advantage of those GIR and get circles on the card! There aren't many rounds above par annually from the top players this week so go ahead and get all the birdies you can handle. The last three years the cut has been 5-under, 3-under and 3-under. Better get low!

    6Vince Whaley
    9Sam Burns
    20Davis Riley
    22Trey Mullinax
    25Rory Sabbatini
    27Scott Stallings
    28Peter Malnati
    32Stephan Jaeger
    36John Huh
    38Russell Henley

    The Bottom Line

    Tournament favorite )comes up on three of the four lists above and is defending his title. While some caution may be needed given his Presidents Cup participation and possible fatigue, he can’t be ignored as a player in all formats this week.

    You’ll also notice Trey Mullinax (Win: +4000; Top 5: +750; Top 10: +350; Top 20: +170; Top 40: -125) pops up three times and might represent value in your line ups as a point of difference.

    Interestingly blast from the past veteran Rory Sabbatini (Win: +15000; Top 5: +2500; Top 10: +1200; Top 20: +550; Top 40: +200) pops up twice. Feeling lucky this early in the season? Might provide some value in DFS or top 40 markets.

    As always don’t forget to also look at Horses for Courses, and Rob Bolton’s Sleepers for extra value and the Power Rankings for the top of the board considerations.

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