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Power Rankings: AT&T Byron Nelson
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May 09, 2022
By Rob Bolton , PGATOUR.COM
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Interviews
Scottie Scheffler on wearing his green jacket
Even marathons have speed slots. In the year-long race that is the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, TPC Craig Ranch is one of them.
RELATED: Play Pick 'Em Live | The First Look | Inside the Field
The second-year host of the AT&T Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas, is prepped once again a field of 156 this week. For a brief recap of how vulnerable it was last year, the predictable path to victory that K.H. Lee followed and more, continue reading beneath the ranking of golfers projected to contend.
POWER RANKINGS: AT&T BYRON NELSON
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 15 
Aaron Wise Prevailed in this tournament at Trinity Forest, so this is a coincidence in that context. Continues to enjoy a fruitful season. T6 in last start at Vidanta, his sixth top 25. Ranks 18th in GIR.Prevailed in this tournament at Trinity Forest, so this is a coincidence in that context. Continues to enjoy a fruitful season. T6 in last start at Vidanta, his sixth top 25. Ranks 18th in GIR.14 
Cameron Champ No longer bothered by a sore left wrist, he’s gone for a T10 (Masters) and a T6 (Mexico) in his last two starts. Did it all at Vidanta, including leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.No longer bothered by a sore left wrist, he’s gone for a T10 (Masters) and a T6 (Mexico) in his last two starts. Did it all at Vidanta, including leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.13 
Jhonattan Vegas Arrives in scintillating form with a T4-T18-T15 roll since Corales. Pounded it here last year en route to a T9, ranking third in both distance of all drives and greens in regulation.Arrives in scintillating form with a T4-T18-T15 roll since Corales. Pounded it here last year en route to a T9, ranking third in both distance of all drives and greens in regulation.12 
Dustin Johnson First go at TPC Craig Ranch. It should serve as fuel for his firepower in advance of the PGA Championship. He’s 14th on TOUR in putting: birdies-or-better, but needs to hit more GIR.First go at TPC Craig Ranch. It should serve as fuel for his firepower in advance of the PGA Championship. He’s 14th on TOUR in putting: birdies-or-better, but needs to hit more GIR.11 
Marc Leishman Upended in conditions last week to prove that no one is immune to the hazards. Now prime for the rebound where he turned in his best putting performance of 2020-21 and finished T21.Upended in conditions last week to prove that no one is immune to the hazards. Now prime for the rebound where he turned in his best putting performance of 2020-21 and finished T21.10 
Hideki Matsuyama This was his first start (T39) after winning the 2021 Masters. He’s again rested since the 2022 Masters where he finished T14. Sits 12th in GIR and 24th in converting them into par breakers.This was his first start (T39) after winning the 2021 Masters. He’s again rested since the 2022 Masters where he finished T14. Sits 12th in GIR and 24th in converting them into par breakers.9 
Brian Harman (Editor's note: Harman withdrew on Tuesday) He was a late entry after sitting T7 at the Wells Fargo midpoint. Went on to finish T9. Now in position to qualify for the U.S. Open, so he can play freely, just like at this time last year.(Editor's note: Harman withdrew on Tuesday) He was a late entry after sitting T7 at the Wells Fargo midpoint. Went on to finish T9. Now in position to qualify for the U.S. Open, so he can play freely, just like at this time last year.8 
Joaquin Niemann Hasn’t competed since he couldn’t play on at TPC Louisiana because teammate Mito Pereira had an injured back. Niemann is among the best tee to green; he’s 12th in adjusted scoring.Hasn’t competed since he couldn’t play on at TPC Louisiana because teammate Mito Pereira had an injured back. Niemann is among the best tee to green; he’s 12th in adjusted scoring.7 
Xander Schauffele No doubt relieved to get off the schneid with victory (alongside Patrick Cantlay) at the Zurich, he’s poised to piggyback that success to go very low in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch.No doubt relieved to get off the schneid with victory (alongside Patrick Cantlay) at the Zurich, he’s poised to piggyback that success to go very low in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch.6 
Talor Gooch Like many in the field, he grew up in these breezes. His threat is reinforced on this stock par 72 as the TOUR’s leader in eagles. He’s also T19 in GIR, T1 in par-3 scoring and T4 in par-5 scoring.Like many in the field, he grew up in these breezes. His threat is reinforced on this stock par 72 as the TOUR’s leader in eagles. He’s also T19 in GIR, T1 in par-3 scoring and T4 in par-5 scoring.5 
Sam Burns The two-time winner this season quickly has figured out how to balance playing time, which is easier said than done. He’s been off since teaming with Billy Horschel for second place in NOLA.The two-time winner this season quickly has figured out how to balance playing time, which is easier said than done. He’s been off since teaming with Billy Horschel for second place in NOLA.4 
Jordan Spieth Rested since emerging with victory at Harbour Town four weeks ago. The local native and resident opened with 63 to co-lead, and then finished T9. Led the field in par-4 scoring.Rested since emerging with victory at Harbour Town four weeks ago. The local native and resident opened with 63 to co-lead, and then finished T9. Led the field in par-4 scoring.3 
Will Zalatoris At 19th in the FedExCup, he’s the highest-ranked non-winner this season in the field. The Dallas resident charges hard, too, with a T5, T6 and T4 in his last three starts. T17 here last year.At 19th in the FedExCup, he’s the highest-ranked non-winner this season in the field. The Dallas resident charges hard, too, with a T5, T6 and T4 in his last three starts. T17 here last year.2 
Justin Thomas Nails all season but still winless since THE PLAYERS 14 months ago. Should thrive in TPC Craig Ranch debut. Second in putting: birdies-or-better, T1 in par-4 scoring, third in par-5 scoring.Nails all season but still winless since THE PLAYERS 14 months ago. Should thrive in TPC Craig Ranch debut. Second in putting: birdies-or-better, T1 in par-4 scoring, third in par-5 scoring.1 
Scottie Scheffler Unless he doesn’t play, this spot is his. Winner of four of his last six individual competitions, and now he’s fresh off a confidence building 64 at Southern Hills last Thursday.Unless he doesn’t play, this spot is his. Winner of four of his last six individual competitions, and now he’s fresh off a confidence building 64 at Southern Hills last Thursday.
Tuesday’s Draws and Fades will include reviews of Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Kevin Kisner, Matthew Wolff and defending champion K.H. Lee.
The old saying that everything is bigger in Texas does not apply to the scores at TPC Craig Ranch. It isn’t every week that a winner on a new venue hangs up 25-under 263, but that’s what Lee did on this racetrack a year ago.
With a scoring average of just 69.574, TPC Craig Ranch was the easiest par 72 among singular hosts of full-field tournaments since TPC Summerlin (69.070) played to that par for the Shriners Hospitals Open in 2008. (TPC Summerlin has been a par 71 since – you guessed it – 2009.)
The 36-hole cut here last year landed at 6-under 138, and 72 golfers survived. Of all scores in the first two rounds, there were only six 72s and one 73. All others were under par. Without question, the entire field needs to hit the ground running.
As is the case in every shootout, piling up the scoring opportunities and capitalizing on them is the simple formula for success. Last year’s field averaged 12.7 greens in regulation per round and 4.37 par breakers on that average. That conversion rate was seventh-easiest of the 51 courses played during the super season. Furthermore, with a scrambling clip of 65.67 percent, TPC Craig Ranch was fourth-easiest on which to save par. It’s a course on which guys can keep rallies rolling and find their games.
En route to his three-stroke, breakthrough PGA TOUR title, Lee ranked T5 in greens in regulation, fourth in proximity and second in putting: birdies-or-better. He also slotted ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting and T18 in scrambling. His red-hot performance is incredibly difficult to replicate, and it helps explain how another first-time winner could emerge this week.
While times in running races can be aided by wind, the omnipresent breezes of the Lone Star State help defend scoring, believe it or not. A steady, prevailing push of 15 mph or so from the south will challenge until it’s forecast to blow in from the north on Sunday. That’s after a chance of rain passes through. Gusts most certainly will be felt throughout the week. Daytime highs will eclipse 90 degrees. Totally Texas.
TPC Craig Ranch is unchanged and still tips at 7,468 yards. The bentgrass greens are governed to accommodate for wind, so they will run no longer than 11½ feet on the Stimpmeter. The tallest bermuda rough extends 2½ inches.
As of Monday afternoon, 53 commits are exempt into next week’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The last entry into that field of 156 is reserved for the winner of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous perspectives. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Sleepers, Draws and Fades
WEDNESDAY: Pick ’Em Preview
SUNDAY: Medical Extensions, Qualifiers, Reshuffle, Rookie Ranking* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
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