Draws and Fades: Rocket Mortgage Classic

The big news of the week is what we’ve been waiting for – an official adjustment.

The release on June 9 stated how the PGA TOUR would respond to golfers who resigned (and will resign) membership and to those who were (and will be) suspended. On Tuesday of this week, the Eligibility Points List was released.

It confirms that the top 125 who haven’t resigned membership and who haven’t been suspended will determine the fields for the FedExCup Playoffs and Korn Ferry Tour Finals. The list consists of all 235 golfers with greater than zero FedExCup Points through the 3M Open. It can be deduced that non-members are chasing the same targets for the non-member top 125 category (for fully exempt status in 2022-23) and the top 200 (to qualify for the KFT Finals).

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks

At times, for golfers who are on the bubbles, it will be important to cite both rankings. For example, PGA TOUR rookie Callum Tarren is 126th in the FedExCup, but he’s 118th on the Eligibility Points List and just under 25 points clear of Austin Smotherman, who is 126th (but 134th in the FedExCup).

Please bear with the references as they will exist only until the fields are set in two weeks. They are intended to provide clarity and reliability for your considerations.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Denny McCarthy (+150 for a Top 20) … Shocked that I fielded zero complaints that he was omitted from the Power Rankings. With three top 10s in his last four starts, he presented as a no-brainer. It’d be a fair gripe. The primary reason I’m relatively cool is that his game always plays up on harder courses because his short game and putting are so strong. He landed as the Wild Card for the Travelers Championship when he projected for a personal-best finish. Alas, he missed that cut, thus fulfilling the tacit nod to how he usually don’t make noise on gettable tracks. Naturally, he then responded with a personal-best T6 at the John Deere Classic despite an even-par 71 in the finale. The narrative is that his game is evolving in front of our eyes and with success most of the time, but conservative investors would like another sample of it when scores are low before dipping more than one toe in.

DRAWS

Adam Scott (+140 for a Top 20) and (+200 for Top Australian) … With Cam Davis defending his title, and even though he’s No. 7 in the Power Rankings, investing in Scott as Top Australian for twice the kickback has merit. Quite a bit of what Davis is experiencing this week is fresh, so we can’t rule out that as a distraction regardless of his sturdy form upon arrival. Meanwhile, Scott recorded top 15s in his last two starts, both of which majors. He has six worldwide this year, and he’ll find Detroit GC to his liking in his debut.

Matt Kuchar (+240 for a Top 20) … Another household name who is making his tournament debut, the 44-year-old is promised another deep run in the Playoffs. All told, it’s been a rock-solid season set up by hot starts. Currently second on TOUR in R1 scoring and first in fewest putts per round in R1. Also tops in one-putt percentage, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and scrambling. He makes sense in every format.

Joohyung Kim (+220 for a Top 20) … Nothing not to love about the 20-year-old from South Korea. Even though he qualified for an accepted Special Temporary Membership [STM], this default endorsement would be incomplete if it didn’t serve as a reminder that he’s ineligible for the FedExCup Playoffs unless he wins this week or next. For a comprehensive review of what STM yields, please read this.

Wyndham Clark
Mackenzie Hughes
Alex Smalley
Scott Stallings
Callum Tarren
Cameron Tringale
Jhonattan Vegas

Odds sourced on Tuesday, July 26th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Webb Simpson … With only one top 15 in eight months(!), it shouldn’t have been a surprise to notice that he was excluded from the Power Rankings. That he’s 125th in the FedExCup and 117th in Eligibility Points is telling. Yes, the injured neck robbed him of a few starts early in 2022, but he hasn’t responded strongly. He presents solely as a contrarian this week. Regardless of the result, the best test will be next week’s Wyndham Championship where he’s the all-time earnings leader.

Gary Woodland … When he cashes, that momentum tends to carry forward, so he’s a terrific candidate for live odds, but he’s traded too many missed cuts for too long to retain even average trust. He’s also 0-for-2 at the RMC.

Brian Stuard … When we think of him, the very next thought often is this tournament. The Michigan native is a product of nearby Oakland University and he finished T5 in the inaugural edition in 2019, but he's missed 10 consecutive cuts upon arrival. He also missed the cut here last year with a pair of 1-under 71s. Nothing beats home cookin’, but it doesn’t guarantee anything, either.

Jason Day
Harris English
Russell Henley
Charley Hoffman
Si Woo Kim
Patton Kizzire
Luke List

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Danny Lee … Third time’s a charm? Since withdrawing during the first round of the Travelers a month ago with an injured hip, he pulled out early from the Scottish and 3M. But he can afford not to push it. At 84th in the FedExCup, he’s been set for the Playoffs pretty much since early November after a T2-T7 surge. Because of his propensity to WD during tournaments and the uncertainty of his health in general, you’re advised to abstain in every format.

NOTABLE WDs

Emiliano Grillo … With a pair of co-runner-up finishes in July, he’s climbed from the top-150 bubble to 53rd in the FedExCup.

Brendon Todd … The timing of his decision presents a good moment to reflect on his career resurgence. Currently 67th in the FedExCup and headed to his third consecutive Playoffs after a four-year downslide. The 37-year-old has remained a reliable contributor once again.

RECAP – 3M OPEN

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Adam Svensson MC
2 Davis Riley MC
3 Cam Davis T16
4 Adam Hadwin T38
5 Maverick McNealy T49
6 Tony Finau Win
7 J.T. Poston T11
8 Sahith Theegala MC
9 Sungjae Im T2
10 Cameron Tringale MC
11 Chez Reavie T49
12 Joohyung Kim T26
13 Michael Thompson T26
14 Adam Long T16
15 Brendan Steele MC
Wild Card Hideki Matsuyama WD

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result
Dylan Frittelli (+260 for a Top 20) MC
Nate Lashley (+333 for a Top 20) MC
Michael Gligic T16
Cole Hammer MC
Justin Lower MC

GOLFBET

Bet: Maverick McNealy (Top 10) – +280
Result: T49

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

July 26 … Tim Wilkinson (44)
July 27 … Jordan Spieth (29)
July 28 … Taylor Moore (29)
July 29 … none
July 30 … Justin Rose (42)
July 31 … none
August 1 … none