Sleeper Picks: The American Express
2 Min Read
'The Early Card' on 'The Drop' looks at picks for The American Express
Written by Rob Bolton
NOTE: Sleeper Picks first appeared in "The Early Card" newsletter on Tuesday. To get these before everyone else, subscribe and get them straight to your inbox one day ahead. These picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.
Top 10
Lee Hodges (+850) ... You know he’s feeling good. His T6 at the Sony Open in Hawaii comfortably fulfilled the terms of a Minor Medical Extension. As a result, he’s now exempt into THE PLAYERS Championship. The season-opening boon piggybacked a T4 at The RSM Classic that concluded a season that jumped the rails due to an injured rib that begat the medical. Go back a full year, and he performed eerily similar in the previous two editions of both of those stops to bridge the 2024 holidays, so there’s a renewed satisfaction to go with his improved health. The notion now is merely to keep the rally rolling at The American Express, where he debuted with a T3 in 2022.
Top 20
S.H. Kim (+600) ... The message beside him in this space for the Sony Open was that these odds wouldn’t last for long. He was +450 in this market and delivered a T13 at Waialae Country Club. Of course, odds are relative to the size and construct of every field, so it’s not surprising that he’s longer in the same market at The American Express that boasts the maximum field of 156 and includes a handful of notables making their season debut. That’s outstanding for us as he chases his seventh consecutive top-20 finish worldwide. In addition to leading the Korn Ferry Tour in the all-around ranking last year, he also slotted 10th in converting greens hit into par breakers. That scorer’s mentality plays way up this week. He’s also no stranger as this is his third appearance, so let’s run it back!
Michael Kim hits 136-yard approach to 4 feet, sets up birdie on No. 16 at Sony Open
Tom Hoge (+490) ... Although these odds are juicy for us, they’re also respectful of his firepower despite zero top 20s in his last 13 starts. In a vacuum, because he’s nearly 5-to-1 for this finish in a tournament at which he recorded a top 20 in half of his last six trips, including a runner-up in 2022, and on courses that feed into his knack for going low, there should be no hesitation in dedicating a full unit to it. Already warm with a T40 at the Sony Open, where he hasn’t made any noise in recent years, but also hasn’t negatively impacted his annual arrival in the Coachella Valley.
Odds were sourced at FanDuel.
