Signature Scroll: Previewing The 154th Open at Royal Birkdale

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Royal Birkdale is FIRM. So much so I lost my voice. I’ll explain …

The Open of options

SOUTHPORT, England – Rory McIlroy stood in a swale that guards the front right side of Royal Birkdale’s 11th green, the potential shots racing through his mind.

To a middle pin, the bump-and-run was friendly because of a narrow patch of green grass just before the putting surface that he could land the ball and kill the pace. But at the back-right pin, the run-up area was all hard pan, sending his bump-and-run attempts long. To that location, he believed he needed to putt it – or risk flopping one high. His face made it clear that he didn’t like any of the options.

After a few attempts of each, McIlroy moved onto the putting green and it was Shane Lowry's turn to assess the situation. He walked down to the swale and immediately grabbed a wedge. For him, it was a bump to both spots. He was uneasy about the consistency that putting through the fringe might bring.

Standing in the same place within a minute of each other, two of the best players in the world chose widely different paths to the green, and it’s central to the intrigue of this Open Championship.

This is The Open of options, where one group of three may pull three different clubs off the tee and three different clubs around the green. An Open that will prioritize trajectory and shot shape, plant a seed of doubt in their minds, and force them to make a decision and commit.

Simply: This is The Open exactly how we want it.

Dry weather in the lead-up has created an incredibly firm, fast Royal Birkdale, yielding conditions that should reward strategy and creativity.

Off the 13th tee, both McIlroy and Lowry hit stingers with driver, the ball apexing lower than most shots they hit all season, with neither wanting to mess with the wind straight into their faces. At the par-3 15th, McIlroy hit another low bullet iron, but Lowry opted to fade a 7-wood and let the wind pull it higher and higher into the air so it would land soft.

At the drivable par-4 fifth on Tuesday, McIlroy bombed a 7-wood that reached the green. It was about 50/50 between pushing it up and laying it back, compared to the other groups I watched come through the hole.

Royal Birkdale is littered with these decisions, and it will be fascinating to watch if a dominant strategy prevails. Bomb it or lay back? Will anyone employ the Tiger-Woods-at-Hoylake method? Woods famously hit only one driver all week en route to winning The Open in 2006. Or will the best players send it as far as they can hit it, content to hit from the burned-out rough?

“That’s going to make it quite strategic,” said Phil Kenyon, a native of Southport and putting coach for Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick, to name a few. “I think you’re going to see a lot of irons off tees, even mid-irons off tees, and then someone else in the group hitting driver. I think you're going to see some very different strategies out there, which could lead to a spread in scoring.”

Why do options matter? Variety is more engaging to watch for viewers, but it also leads to large differences in outcomes. With options comes indecision, and with multiple potentialities swimming around in a player’s mind, the thought that the shot they are about to hit isn’t the right one is unavoidable.

Don’t agree with me? Fine. Here’s how McIlroy described the challenge:

“When you give professional golfers options, and you can create a little bit of doubt in their minds in terms of should I play this shot or that shot, that's when things start to get fun, especially for the viewer. Not so much for us but ..."

I’m excited for things to get fun.

Playing through

• 🤯 It’s easy to reminisce when the topic is Jordan Spieth's 2017 victory. I went through every detail of that epic final stretch …
• ❓Everyone’s asking the wrong question about Scottie Scheffler. This is the right one …
• 🗣️ Who are the experts picking? I went out on a limb ...

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Video ID: 6401121227112

Scheffler close again

It's weird to feel the need to mount a defense of the world No. 1, but from a few days assessing the vibes on-site, I'm compelled to do so.

Scottie Scheffler is not playing as good as he did last year or even the year before. That's inarguable. Yes, he just missed his first cut in nearly four years.

He's still the runaway favorite for this tournament.

I did some digging this week, wanting to put Scheffler's season in context. This was the best stat I found: Last year, per Data Golf, Scheffler’s “true” Strokes Gained (adjusted for field strength) was +3.28.

That’s an astronomical figure. It’s the seventh-best statistical season of any player since 1983. Tiger Woods owns the top six.

This year, Scheffler’s true Strokes Gained is +2.84, a notable drop. Still, that’s the 12th-best season on TOUR since 1983. Only eight of Woods' seasons, one Greg Norman season and two of Scheffler’s own were better.

Put another way, Scheffler’s current season is better than any from Rory McIlroy, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson or Jordan Spieth.

Shocker, he's my pick this week.

Parting shots

• 👶 Sam Burns told me it was touch-and-go whether he would be here. He initially planned NOT to play, with his daughter's birth expected this week. But when Belle Burns came early, he reconsidered. Now, fresh off a runner-up at the U.S. Open, Burns is here. “If it was a different event, I probably wouldn’t be here,” he told me.
• 🏆🏆 How rare is it to win The Open at the same venue twice? Only six players have done it since World War I: Tiger Woods, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Jack Nicklaus, Peter Thomson and Ben Hogan. Jordan Spieth will be trying this year. Though he’s trying to break a different trend. He’s without a top 10 in the last 14 months.
• 😮 Significant changes to Birkdale have added some quirk. For example, both Spieth’s iconic approach into the par-3 14th and the famous 50-foot eagle putt on the 15th no longer exist. The 14th hole was replaced with a par 5, using most of the land that had been the 15th. But the green was moved and changed. So neither of those insane shots will be repeated this week.
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Is this the best opportunity for an Englishman to win an Open on English soil? Tony Jacklin was the last to do it in 1969. Between Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Matt Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rai, it’s easy to envision an Englishman holding the claret jug at week’s end.
• 📖 One of my favorite things The R&A does for The Open is they make the official yardage book that players use available for purchase. It’s the easiest £12 I spend every year. Great for the golf sicko who wants to geek out on the strategy.
• 🚱 My most personal example to explain how firm and fast it is out there: Having been in the area for three days, walking the dusty golf holes, I’ve somehow managed to lose my voice. Apparently, inhaling too much dust can do that to you. My voice is rough, and I’d just like to thank Sam Burns for not laughing at my voice cracks as I asked him about the birth of his baby.