The Five: Trends to track at 2026 British Open Championship

SOUTHPORT, England – We’re in store for a proper installment of The Open Championship.

How do we know?

Royal Birkdale is playing firm and fast, exuding the best features of links golf and the test ahead. Balls are bouncing 30 feet in the air after landing, iron shots are rolling out an extra 50 yards, and the bump-and-run is alive and well around the greens.

Add in juicy storylines like Tommy Fleetwood's quest to win his home major, Jordan Spieth's return to his craziest major victory and the continued major race between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy and this Open has all the makings of a classic.

What should you be watching as the golf begins Thursday? Here are five trends to track.

Rory McIlroy’s iron play

McIlroy wasn’t a happy camper last weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open. His approach play deteriorated throughout the tournament, and he fell into bad habits that have hindered him at times this season, including at the U.S. Open last month.

With McIlroy’s limited schedule, it’s difficult to amass a large sample size to learn from, but he’s lost strokes on approach in his two most recent starts and flagged it as an issue after his final round at The Renaissance Club.

“It's the same thing that I get a lot when I start hitting balls in a left-to-right wind as it has been over the weekend,” McIlroy said. “My path and my face just get too far apart, in terms of like my face is just the further left than my path is and I start hitting these left shots.”

McIlroy said Tuesday that the swing has felt improved on the range and in practice rounds. Will it translate when competition begins? Links golf forces players to hit all types of shots, moving the ball both directions with different trajectories to navigate the terrain and the elements. With anything less than full confidence in his ball-striking, McIlroy will suffer.

English drought

We’re not talking weather here, though this area of Northwest England has experienced very little rain, resulting in browned-out conditions that will persist all week.

No, we’re discussing the struggle of Englishmen to win their major championship. For Americans, the Masters is often the pinnacle of tournament golf, but for Europeans, particularly the English, The Open Championship stands above the rest.

Yet an Englishman hasn’t won The Open since Nick Faldo in 1992. But he did it on Scottish soil at Muirfield. The last time an Englishman won an Open hosted on English soil was Tony Jacklin in 1969 at Royal Lytham and St. Annes.

Is this the year that the 57-year drought ends? There is as good a chance as any year, with a plethora of contenders.

Tommy Fleetwood grew up just down the road from Royal Birkdale and will be the overwhelming favorite for fans on the ground. His galleries were massive on Monday and Tuesday, larger than any on the golf course, with the hometown fans hoping to will their man to the claret jug.

Matt Fitzpatrick is the frontrunner for Player of the Year and boasts the type of game that should succeed here: long and accurate off the tee with the ability to be creative and hit different shots. Fitzpatrick has already won three times on TOUR this season, with four other top fives. Three of those top fives have come in his last four starts.

There’s also Aaron Rai, the most recent Englishman to win a major. He unexpectedly won the PGA Championship in May with an incredible Sunday performance at Aronimink Golf Club. Rai has been a bit sporadic since his win, but his finish was a T11 at the U.S. Open, backing up his first major championship with another solid performance.

Then, of course, there’s Justin Rose. Rose broke out as an amateur during the 1998 Open at Royal Birkdale, finishing fourth as an amateur. What a bookend it would be to return to Birkdale and capture his first Open title in the waning years of his career.

Scottie’s major streak

Only three players in the modern era have won at least one major championship in three consecutive seasons: Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka.

Could Scheffler be the fourth?

The Open is Scheffler’s last opportunity to win a major this year, and it would go a long way in changing the narrative of his season. Stuck on one win since mid-January, Scheffler has continued to play at a high level. He just hasn’t been able to get over the line. He has four runners-up this season.

“For me to be winning a lot of tournaments, you've got to just be really, really sharp. I feel like maybe I've just been a touch dull,” Scheffler said.

Even a dull Scheffler is a dangerous one. According to Data Golf, Scheffler is amassing the 12th-best Strokes Gained season on TOUR since 1983. Only eight Woods seasons, one Greg Norman season and two of Scheffler’s own were better. Scheffler also leads the FedExCup and holds the low scoring average.

The win total often drowns out those nuances, the end-all, be-all in many minds. A win this week in Birkdale would silence those critics and put Scheffler in elite territory.

Spieth’s repeat

There are two trends that Spieth will need to overcome if he wants to win the claret jug for a second time at Royal Birkdale.

First, only six players since World War I have won multiple Opens at the same venue. Tiger Woods (St Andrews), Nick Faldo (Muirfield), Seve Ballesteros (Royal Lytham and St Annes), Jack Nicklaus (St Andrews), Peter Thomson (Royal Birkdale) and Ben Hogan (Royal St. Georges).

Then, there’s the more pressing issue. Spieth has not finished inside the top-10 of any tournament in 14 months. But he feels much better than that stat would suggest.

“I'm quite frustrated with the results considering I know where my game is at. It's better than it was four or five years ago when I got back to top 10 in the world,” Spieth said. “It's without a doubt better than it was then; it's just not quite showing up in results.”

Royal Birkdale changes

Speaking of Spieth, one of the most famous shots he hit at that Open in 2017 was a 50-foot eagle putt he rolled in at the 15th. If you don’t remember the putt, you likely remember the celebration. Spieth looked at his caddie, Michael Greller, pointed at the hole, and shouted, “Go get that.”

That hole doesn’t exist anymore. In fact, none of Royal Birkdale’s 18 holes are exactly the same as they were nine years ago. The club has undergone changes, some subtle and some extensive, that add intrigue to this classic Open rota course.

The fifth, 14th and 15th are completely different holes. The 15th is a lengthy par-3 and a take on a classic redan hole, using the land of the old 14th.

The new 14th hole is on the land of the old 15th. The green for the par-5 was moved and reduced in size. The hole is also 60 yards longer.

The par-4 fifth hole is a complete redesign and is now drivable depending on the conditions and tee location.