How lucky are we to have been treated to an incredible Masters Tournament? The tournament was great, but that final round was phenomenal. In the end, Rory McIlroy accomplished something that has only been done three times before, winning the Masters in back-to-back years.

When you think things might settle down after a week like that, they don’t. Now the TOUR heads straight into a Signature Event with the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. It’s a completely different test, a completely different style of golf, but it’s one that consistently produces great leaderboards.

Harbour Town is unique among many of the stops we have on the PGA TOUR. At 7,243 yards, the par-71 course is not long by TOUR standards. Distance isn’t much of an advantage here.

The fairways are tree-lined with overhanging limbs, and a lot of the corridors are tight enough that you must decide which side of the fairway you actually want to be on. There are multiple holes where hitting less than driver is the optimal play, and with landing zones sitting around that 300-yard range, players are going to club down often.

On TOUR, driver is used around 68.9% of the time. At Harbour Town, that number drops below 56%. It’s such a significant difference.

As a result, driving distance becomes less important. When everyone is hitting similar targets off the tee and finding fairways at a higher rate, it levels the playing field. Looking at past champions, you’ll see a mix of bombers and positional players.

Harbour Town is often referred to as a second-shot golf course. That’s largely due to the green sizes. The greens are some of the smallest on TOUR, averaging around 3,700 square feet. Golfers must be precise with their irons, and historical data supports that.

Since 2020, only one winner has finished outside the top eight in Strokes Gained: Approach. At the same time, only two winners since 2019 have been inside the top 20 in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Starting with SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds: (data via RickRunGood.com)

• 1. Shane Lowry
• 2. Austin Smotherman
• 3. Xander Schauffele
• 4. Matt Fitzpatrick
• 5. Collin Morikawa
• 6. J.J. Spaun
• 7. Viktor Hovland
• 8. Ryan Gerard
• 9. Russell Henley
• 10. Si Woo Kim

The more important angle this week is how often players will be hitting from 175-200 yards. That distance makes up 25.5% of approach shots at Harbour Town. TOUR average is 17.2%. That’s a pretty significant jump, and it tracks given the golfers who have won here. Golfers who are consistently gaining strokes with their long irons are the ones consistently near the top of the leaderboard.

Top golfers from 175-200 yards for the last 24 rounds:

• 1. Shane Lowry
• 2. Viktor Hovland
• 3. Si Woo Kim
• 4. Sepp Straka
• 5. Matt McCarty
• 6. Collin Morikawa
• 7. Austin Smotherman
• 8. Karl Vilips
• 9. Kurt Kitayama
• 10. Nico Echavarria

Shane Lowry (+5500) is the name that surprised me a bit from both of these lists. He’s first in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds and also first in that 175-200 bucket over the last 24. I shortened that sample slightly to focus on who’s been gaining the most recently in that specific range. I wanted to see which golfers were “swinging the hot bat.”

When you dig into his history here, it’s a little inconsistent.

He finished T3 in 2019 while losing strokes on approach. Then, in 2021 and 2022, he gained 5.6 and 8.4 strokes on approach and finished T9 and T3, respectively. Last season, he finished T18 while losing strokes on approach.

Golfers won’t win this event while losing strokes on approach, but Lowry has proven you can contend while doing so.

Looking at his 2026 form, he’s been a positive gainer on approach in most events, outside of the two missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship. That’s an encouraging sign if there’s any interest in betting on Lowry in the prop bet markets.

There’s an argument for a top-20 finish at +195, but I think the better way to approach Lowry is more situational – round-by-round matchups or targeting him early in the week in the live market if he starts well.

As for identifying golfers to fade this week, look at golfers losing strokes on approach. Much like earlier in finding the hot bat, I narrowed this down further. I used the last eight rounds here to capture at least three events roughly.

These are the worst performers in that span:

• 1. Brian Campbell
• 2. Lucas Glover
• 3. Taylor Pendrith
• 4. Nico Echavarria
• 5. Garrick Higgo
• 6. Ricky Castillo
• 7. Sungjae Im
• 8. Chandler Blanchet
• 9. Marco Penge
• 10. Min Woo Lee

Sungjae Im (+7000) is the most interesting name in that group. It’s easy to be a victim of the moment and remember how well he was playing at the Valspar Championship a few weeks back. He had a lead late in the tournament and was flat-out impressive. He finished T4 and was a massive gainer on approach that week.

He has battled injury, so the spike weeks will be there, but consistent play isn't there yet. He followed that up with a T60 in Houston while losing strokes on approach, and then lost over five strokes on approach at the Masters.

Golfers like Im, who have been inconsistent with their irons, could struggle here.

Best Value on the Board

Scottie Scheffler to win +440

Alright, hear me out. Before getting into why you should bet Scottie Scheffler (+440), I want to make one thing clear. Just because a golfer is at a short price doesn’t mean there isn’t value, and on the flip side, just because a golfer is short doesn’t automatically mean there is value either.

One thing I’ve noticed with Scheffler throughout his career is that when he plays well at a specific course, he continues to play well there. And so far at Harbour Town, that has absolutely been the case.

In 2023, his first appearance here, he finished T11 and gained 3.9 strokes off the tee and 5.2 on approach. He followed that up in 2024 with a win, gaining 6.89 strokes on approach and another 5.2 off the tee. Then, in 2025, what would be considered a “down” performance by his standards, he still finished T8 while gaining 5.45 strokes on approach.

Those numbers are pretty ridiculous. He’s not just gaining on the field, he’s separating from it with his irons.

Now, there were some concerns recently, and it’s worth addressing them. Yes, he won The American Express in January, but toward the end of February and into early March, the approach play dipped. He lost 0.74 strokes on approach at The Genesis Invitational and then lost 2.79 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which was his worst stretch with the irons since the 2024 BMW Championship.

Then we got the Masters.

In his runner-up finish, Scheffler gained 6.55 strokes on approach. Only two players in the field gained more. His ball striking as a whole was just as strong, with only two players outperforming him there as well.

Are there signs?

If you start building this out with comp courses like TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, Pebble Beach and Waialae Country Club, it starts to make more sense why we should back him. He’s won at all those courses.

So if the irons are back to where they were, or if that rough stretch was just a small blip, then this becomes pretty straightforward for me. Scheffler has a very real chance to win this tournament, even at +440.

If he wins the Masters, this number is probably closer to +250. Instead, you’re getting a better price because he didn’t. If you want to be more conservative, you can look at the top five. If you want to get creative, you can target first-round markets, like a top 10 at +165.

For me, I am not overcomplicating it. I am betting Scheffler to win.