Bolton: Eyeing fantasy strategy at 3M Open as FedExCup Playoffs near

You know how I’ve always advised to remain fluid? It’s my third rule of three for playing fantasy golf. Well, the 3M Open is presenting the best example of why it’s so important.

For the first time in his career, the No. 1 in my Power Rankings, Scottie Scheffler, is pegging it at TPC Twin Cities. Even if you saw advance notice of a verbal commitment, nothing is official until, well, the first tee ball is in the air in the opening round. However, after having cleared Friday’s commitment deadline, it’d likely require an illness, an injury or sudden personal matter for him not to play.

This, of course, was not in our equation when we launched into Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. But it’s OK. In fact, it’s better than OK and not just for the tournament, its local constituents and all fans of him and the sport. It’s a drop of gold for gamers in pursuit who are thirsty for something special.

With front-runners in position to milk the clock with a four-corners offense over the last six tournaments anchored by three no-cut FedExCup Playoffs events, only those in fierce battles would consider burning a start on Scheffler in Minnesota. They will compare the 50 FedExCup bonus points reserved for the winner of the 3M Open to the 75 awaiting each of the winners of the Playoffs events and, thus, end-load starts for the world’s top-ranked talent.

In their defense, FedExCup bonus points for runner-up finishes in the Playoffs equal those for a victory at the 3M Open, next week’s Rocket Classic and the Wyndham Championship that concludes the regular season after that. Extending that math further, a solo third this week yields 19 FedExCup bonus points, while a solo ninth in the Playoffs awards 20, so there’s insurance baked into a poorer result nearer the finish line.

All of that is the kind of sound logic that positioned league leaders where they are. But there are flaws that you can exploit while burning a start on Scheffler now.

For one, we know he’s playing the 3M Open. While he’s never sat out a Playoffs event – and he’s reached the TOUR Championship in every season since joining the PGA TOUR in 2019-20 – there’s always the chance for a first time, especially since Starting Strokes was abandoned in 2025. He’s the defending champion of the BMW Championship, and he’ll play the TOUR Championship, but you’d be relying on his impeccable streak of commitments to continue.

Another variable is the expectation of fantasy scoring at the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities was the easiest par 71 of the 2025 season, so the leaderboard will be painted in deep red. Scheffler not only leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring, but he’s No. 1 in percentage of par breakers per hole played. East Lake Golf Club is similarly gettable, but it’s a par 70 with one less par 5. Even so, it’s all but a certainty that Scheffler will be the most-owned and as a captain at the TOUR Championship, so final standings will be determined by the guys around him. Gamers in pursuit essentially will be forced to roster him to cut losses all the while designating another stud to be the captain that either saves the season or goes down with the ship.

And yet another angle is Scheffler’s elevated value in the 3M Open versus the depth of ability promised in the Playoffs. To mix gaming pursuits and after consider all influences on strategy, fantasy gamers are advised to roster him when his betting odds are shortest in a full field. Odds help distinguish his value relative to others.

The moral of the matter is to play Scheffler where he’s going to do the most damage in the aggregate before FedExCup bonus points are applied. Because TPC Twin Cities and East Lake will be more generous than TPC Southwind – host of the FedEx St. Jude Championship – the lid-lifter of the Playoffs slots third among that trio. The infrequently visited Bellerive Country Club will host this year’s BMW Championship, so Scheffler will not be defending on the same course anyway, so that tournament will serve as a wild card and prep for the finale.

That moment in time will be another to remain fluid. So that you’re in position for it to matter, don’t pass this one by.

Captain

Scottie Scheffler ... I remain solidly in third place and within reach of first in my little league, thus my personal motivation to designate him now. At last check, he populates only 24.2% of the rosters saved, which is merely eighth-most in the field of 144.

I have two related theories for that. Gamers default to holstering him for the Playoffs regardless, but it’s likely that a reasonable percentage among them still are not aware that FedExCup points no longer are quadrupled, even though all points have been parked on the Rules page ever since that announcement in January. And despite my numerous references to it over time, it continues to be one of the most popular topics of conversation when I’m engaging privately on X. That’s good for you as it concerns the opportunity to pounce right now.

Other considerations

• Tom Kim ... No. 3 in my Power Rankings and on a heater to sit 35th in the FedExCup. Doesn’t need to play this week, but the goal is to be among the 30 to qualify for the TOUR Championship, so his pedal remains on the floor.
• Kurt Kitayama ... The defending champion is No. 2 in the Power Rankings. As I wrote recently, what’s most impressive about his season is how consistently strong it’s been. It’s a departure from the occasional spikes that have defined his profile previously in his career. He’s already matched or equaled season highs in top 10s (four) and top 25s (nine) and in five to seven fewer starts. Meanwhile, TPC Twin Cities has been an exceptionally great fit, self-evident with last year’s win.

Rounding out the roster

This lineup represents the top six of my Power Rankings. Outside Scheffler, there’s little pressure on roster management, so expectations are elevated to make a dent without waste.

My starters

• Lucas Glover
• Kurt Kitayama
• Scottie Scheffler (1)
• Gary Woodland

My bench

• Ben James (1)
• Tom Kim (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Tony Finau ... Like a few others in the field, he’s never missed an edition, but he’s done the most with his opportunities. The 2022 champ is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader. Also has a T3, a T7 and a T12 among six paydays. However, the 36-year-old has been in an extended funk that dates back to last year when he missed the cut at TPC Twin Cities. And while he’s been cashing regularly for months, he’s had only one top 25 in the last four.
• Jackson Suber ... The PGA TOUR sophomore has been answering the bell with three top 10s in his last seven starts, and he led The Open with an opening 65. He also finished T6 in his 3M Open debut last year, but he’s still way too aggressive a send for my conservative philosophy in a fantasy game for which you roster only six. Yet, he’s seventh-most owned at 31.5%. Bananas.

• Jake Knapp ... Since resting an injured left thumb for eight weeks, He’s just 1-for-4 with a T55 at the no-cut Travelers Championship, so it’s likely that the 23.3% of gamers who have him rostered are course-history buffs captivated by his cachet and a T3 here last year.
• Jason Day ... Given that he’s without a top-35 finish in his last eight starts that included an injured back at the U.S. Open, as well as a pair of finishes outside the top 60 at TPC Twin Cities, he should be an easy pass, but he’s saved on over 10% of the rosters.

Returning to competition

• Patrick Rodgers ... First action in a month. Had committed to the John Deere Classic but withdrew early due to discomfort in his back. Also pulled out early of the ISCO Championship. At 61st in the FedExCup, the 34-year-old is in his typically comfortably uncomfortable position on the bubble, but he never lets us down in the long-term. He’s 4-for-5 at TPC Twin Cities but without a top 30. That he’s ready to play again is all the green light DFSers need to plug and replay.

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