Expert Picks: THE PLAYERS Championship

With a new season comes a new evolution for Expert Picks. Below are picks and analysis for both betting and fantasy, as fans have a new version of the PGA TOUR Fantasy Game presented by PGA TOUR Superstore for 2025. Each week, our panel of experts will offer picks and analysis for the fantasy game, including insight on who will captain their roster for extra points. Users can submit their rosters via PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, with the current segment running through the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

Our Golfbet experts will also share betting picks, both for the outright winner of the tournament and which prop markets have caught their eye.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. Each lineup consists of four starters, including a captain, and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four segments.

Aside from the expert insight below, Golfbet's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field in this week's Power Rankings and offers Fantasy-specific advice in this week's Fantasy Insider.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Collin Morikawa (+1400): I’m ready to be hurt again. There’s just too much to like from Morikawa’s tee-to-green prowess, despite the disappointment from Sunday’s near-miss at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.
• Aaron Rai (+7500): The Englishman will pop up on a few betting cards this week given his accurate ball-striking and strong recent form. He notched a T4 and T11 in his last two starts and holds a solid record in two PLAYERS starts.

Props

• Balls in water on 17th hole, Over 52.5 (via ESPN BET): Winds are blowing this week in Ponte Vedra Beach…and sometimes it’s fun to root for a little carnage.
• Sepp Straka Round 1, Under 70.5 (-110): If he’s good enough for Rob Bolton to slot ahead of Scottie Scheffler in the Power Rankings, I need to find a way to get him on the card.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Winner: Hideki Matsuyama (+3300): Sneaky good at TPC Sawgrass without winning and already a winner this season, which has been a sneaky connecting factor for the last three PLAYERS winners.
• Winner: Justin Thomas (+2200): I said in the pre-season Thomas would have a win after THE PLAYERS … so this is my last chance to be right. Former champ who just needs to put four rounds together.

Props

• Prop: Aaron Rai, Top 10 including ties (+450): In the past there has been a correlation between Sedgefield CC and TPC Sawgrass through the likes of Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim among others. I’m not sure Rai can win it all but he can certainly contend.
• Prop: Jason Day, Top 20 including ties (+190): The former champion popped back up during the Arnold Palmer Invitational before a few mistakes took him out of the mix. He’s got another big win in him somewhere and I get the feeling he’s peaking towards Augusta so I expect another good showing this week.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

Winners

• Hideki Matsuyama +3300: If there’s any course I’m waiting for Matsuyama to win at, it’s this one.While we all remember his 63 during the COVID-19 cancellation year, we should also look at the seven total rounds of 67 or better he has at TPC Sawgrass. It feels like a matter of time given his talent level.
• Daniel Berger+6000: We have seen so many glimpses of greatness recently. At this point, one of two things will happen: He will either continue to post solid rounds that are not quite good enough, or he will finally put it all together for four rounds. It’s quite intriguing to see he already has two top 10s here and a T13.

Props

• Top Past Champion: Justin Thomas (+600): This market only has eight players in it. Realistically, the two he has to beat are Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. While that sounds daunting, if I’m getting 6/1 odds to just simply beat those two, I’ll take it. I really think Thomas is going to perform at Sawgrass.
• Top 20: Shane Lowry (+180): The weekend didn’t go his way at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but that doesn’t take away from the solid golf he is playing. Lowry has gone second, T39, T11 and seventh in his last four events. Now he comes to a place where he has recent finishes of T19, T13 and eighth.

CASEY JOHNSTON (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

Winners

• Ludvig Åberg (+1800): Just when I thought I was out, he pulls me back in. He had a rough Saturday at Arnie’s place, but his 4-under finish on Sunday has me ready for another win in the Year of Åberg.
• Justin Thomas (+2200): He’s done it before, he’ll do it again. Thomas has been in great form and is a past winner at THE PLAYERS. He’s seventh in SG: Total this season, and lined up for his first win of the year.

Props

• Hole-in-One at the 17th Hole Yes (+145): One last year. Three the year before. Three years in a row with an ace at 17. Hop on the plus money and go crazy for a one.
• Scottie Scheffler Top 20 (-400): Sometimes, it’s just nice to see one go in.

Want to see how to set up your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf lineup? Scroll below.

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