Draws and Fades: Chris Gotterup poised to challenge over weekend at BMW Championship

After Thursday’s five-way logjam at the top, Friday brought some separation at the BMW Championship. The reigning U.S. Open champion, Wyndham Clark, arrived this week in complete control and led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach on Friday, backing up his bogey-free 64 on Thursday with another one.

Right behind him, Gary Woodland (11 under) continued his surprising run at Bellerive. He sits squarely on the bubble for the TOUR Championship, and he closed his second round strong with a pair of birdies to take control of second place. As predicted on Thursday, Patrick Cantlay (8 under) made his steady move, and Scottie Scheffler (3 under) looked a lot more like Scottie Scheffler on Friday, salvaging his week with a back-nine rally.

Plenty of other big names are within reach, and with Bellerive proving to be more gettable than expected, we could be in for a wild weekend of leaderboard movement. The leaderboard tells us who has played well, but a deeper dive into the strokes gained data tells us how they got there. This provides a guide for players headed in the right direction, and also highlights a few names who could get swallowed up by the Bellerive rough on the weekend.

Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (DraftKings)

• +210: Wyndham Clark
• +500: Gary Woodland
• +750: J.J. Spaun
• +850: Chris Gotterup
• +1500: Rory McIlroy
• +1500: Sungjae Im
• +1500: Patrick Cantlay

Draws: Chris Gotterup, To Win (+770)

In one of the most historically dominant runs in the history of the sport, Scheffler has five wins in the last 13 months. Chris Gotterup has four and is in perfect position (three shots back) to tie Scheffler this week. I think that perfectly illustrates what an underrated, prolific winner Gotterup has evolved into.

The course fit also matters. Gotterup possesses the speed and power to play aggressively on the scoring holes and reach the par 5s in two. A quick glance at stats from the leaders and you will see that Bellerive isn’t demanding fairways. It’s asking players to produce enough distance that the missed fairways become more manageable approach shots. Gotterup is comfortable playing this style of golf.

He managed to produce a solid 3-under round on Friday without his best and remains near the top despite losing strokes around the greens and with the putter. There has been a lot of chatter this week about PGA TOUR Player of the Year, and I haven’t heard Gotterup’s name once. If he can capture win No. 4 at the BMW Championship, he’s not only a part of the conversation – he becomes the frontrunner.

Fade: Gary Woodland

Woodland is the best story on the leaderboard, but that does not make him the best bet. As much as it pains me to write, I think we have already seen Woodland’s best, and a fall down the leaderboard is imminent.

There is no doubt that Bellerive asks for speed, and Woodland still has plenty of it, leading the field in average ball speed at age 42. It makes total sense why he’s played so well through 36 holes, but my concern is that the added stress of managing pressure given the elevated circumstances in play could negatively affect his performance on the weekend.

On several occasions this season, Woodland has run out of steam on Sunday. He finished with a closing round of 4-over 74 just last week in Memphis, his worst round of the tournament. Unfortunately, you have to separate rooting interest and a great story from the betting markets. I’d look to fade Woodland in the weekend matchup markets and sell high on Woodland after two straight days of playing above his baseline.