Draws and Fades: Wyndham Clark may play it safe; Sungjae Im needs Sunday surge to reach TOUR Championship

Saturday was an assertion of dominance at the BMW Championship, but it came with the familiar reminder that control in golf is always temporary. It took exactly one hole for Wyndham Clark to loosen his grip on the lead. An opening double bogey can derail a round, or it can serve as a reset. Clark chose the latter.

From there, he sprinted away five shots from the pack. Clark played his final 17 holes in 7 under to create real separation on Moving Day. He now sits as a massive favorite (-360) to win at Bellerive Country Club. His resilience was the story of the afternoon in St. Louis, but the putter deserves equal praise.

There is still plenty of firepower behind him. Rory McIlroy and Chris Gotterup are both capable of producing the kind of Sunday round that makes things interesting, and this leaderboard is hardly short on players who can go low. The problem is the gap.

With only one event remaining in the PGA TOUR season after this week, a victory would do more than add another trophy to Clark’s résumé. It would strengthen an already compelling Player of the Year case and move him into third in the FedExCup standings heading to Atlanta.

The Sunday forecast in St. Louis looks almost ideal, which likely removes weather as a variable needed to create chaos. I don’t expect Clark to be chased down. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found. The opportunities are likely hiding in positional markets and head-to-head matchups. That’s where we’ll look for an edge heading into the final round.

Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (DraftKings)

• -360: Wyndham Clark
• +750: Rory McIlroy
• +1100: Patrick Cantlay
• +1950: Chris Gotterup

Draws: Sungjae Im, Top 5 finish (+210)

Apparently Sungjae Im has decided he's simply not ready for his season to end. Two weeks ago, he showed up in Memphis outside the FedExCup top 50 and played his way into the BMW Championship. Now, he’s doing it again, positioning himself in sixth place heading into the final round knowing he needs at least a T8 to advance to the TOUR Championship.

I’m even more optimistic about a good Sunday round given that he hasn’t fully capitalized on his excellent approach play just yet. I don’t expect his quality run of form to disappear.

He’s positioned himself perfectly to make this dream run a reality. The final-round pressure is real, but he carries confidence and has been here before. I’ll back Im in the top-five market at +210 to punch his ticket to the TOUR Championship.

Fade: Wyndham Clark

This isn’t about betting on Clark to fold on Sunday and somehow lose this golf tournament. It’s about extracting value by playing the other side in a head-to-head matchup against a player whose market price now reflects three days of near-perfect golf.

Clark thrives when he can stay aggressive and attack pin locations. On Sunday, with a significant lead to protect, the natural tendency will be to dial some of that back. Fairways become a little more important. Misses get safer. The objective shifts from chasing birdies to avoiding mistakes. That creates opportunity.

Clark also showed Saturday that he isn’t completely immune to bogeys. He’s avoided more of them this week because of some terrific putting, including several clutch par saves from significant distance.

On Sunday, water tends to find its level. Clark has built himself a cushion, and there’s a good chance he’ll need some of it before he gets to the winner’s circle. I’m looking to secondary markets and head-to-head matchups where we can bet against him producing another round well above his baseline for the fourth straight day.

Good luck!