Draws and Fades: Patrick Cantlay built for BMW Championship pressure

There is a heightened sense of urgency this week at the BMW Championship, and you could feel it Thursday. With 30 spots up for grabs in next week's TOUR Championship, players fighting for their FedExCup Playoffs lives showed up ready to play, while the most dominant player in the sport looked like he was searching. It was quite an interesting day in St. Louis, to say the least.

Gary Woodland, sitting one spot on the wrong side of the FedEx Cup bubble at No. 31, stormed out of the gates and shares the lead. He held it for most of the afternoon before Wyndham Clark. They were later joined most notably by Rory McIlroy, who flipped a switch after his poor performance in Memphis, plus J.J. Spaun and Chris Gotterup.

Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, is walking off Bellerive with plenty of work to do. Coming off an eight-shot demolition at TPC Southwind last week, the world No. 1 opened with back-to-back bogeys and finds himself well outside the top of the leaderboard after Round 1. Bellerive showed that it can yield low scores, and there’s still plenty of time for Scheffler or a cavalry of other contenders to make their move.

With the pre-tournament favorite slow out of the gates, the betting markets have been rapidly shifting. With the lengthened holes and penal rough at Bellerive, we are positioned for a volatile final 54 holes in one of the most important tournaments of the year. Let’s isolate some players for draws and fades.

Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (DraftKings)

• +390: Rory McIlroy
• +640: Chris Gotterup
• +780: Wyndham Clark
• +940: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +1150:Ludvig Åberg
• +1150: J.J. Spaun

Draws: Patrick Cantlay, Top 10 (+128)

The pressure on Patrick Cantlay this week is as high as it has been in a long time. I’m comfortable backing a player whose nickname is "Patty Ice" under extreme circumstances. The man has the clutch gene, and he’ll need to rely on it heavily this week.

Cantlay needs a solo seventh-place finish at the bare minimum to qualify for the TOUR Championship. It's extra important this year, too. With his major championship exemptions expired, Cantlay needs to make the TOUR Championship to guarantee his spot in the 2027 Masters. You could tell he's been putting in the work, and that steady run of form continued Thursday with a solid 3-under round that has him squarely in the mix.

He’s managed to pick up speed and distance, averaging well over 300 yards off the tee on Thursday, a big-time number for Cantlay. We know he has the putting acumen to perform when it matters the most, and he certainly knows what’s at stake. If he continues on this path of improved performance, he doesn’t need to do anything out of the ordinary. I think Cantlay has a legitimate chance to win outright, but I'll definitely be eyeing that Top-10 market as a firm play.

Fade: Ludvig Åberg

Ludvig Åberg is going to be an awfully tempting name on the live betting board after a 4-under 66 in the opening round, but a closer examination has me leaning the other way. For starters, Åberg made nearly 150 total feet of putts on Thursday, the third most of any round in his career. That alone screams unsustainable.

If you watched the play from Bellerive today, you saw firsthand how brutal the 5-inch rough is, especially given the demanding length of this golf course. Åberg managed to hit only 50% of fairways in Round 1, which clearly puts extra stress on the putter to succeed. At his current live betting price, oddsmakers are relying on the parts of his game that are currently running hot to maintain value.

My concern is that Bellerive's setup makes him vulnerable to a reversal on the leaderboard. The other sneaky factor: Åberg has developed a trend over the past six months of starting tournaments hot and fading on the weekend. On average, he gains 2.28 strokes on Thursdays and Fridays. But on the weekend, that number drops to 0.78, nearly a shot and a half worse. I'm banking on that trend continuing in St. Louis.