Draws and Fades: Back Sam Burns below Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler brawl Sunday at Travelers Championship

Viktor Hovland not only caught the boogeyman, but he also surpassed him on moving day at the Travelers Championship with a 6-under 64.

Hovland stuck his approach shot on the 18th hole to 6 feet, then proceeded to bury the birdie, which flipped the leaderboard with a late two-shot swing when Scottie Scheffler made bogey.

Akshay Bhatia and Patrick Cantlay are still lurking at 15 under in a tie for third place, but if anyone outside of the final pairing is going to steal this, they’ll need a historic final round. The good news for them is that TPC River Highlands is still dishing out plenty of birdie opportunities with the soft conditions and lack of wind.

There is nothing in the weather forecast to slow the scoring, as the winner will easily blow by the 23-under par scoring record set by Keegan Bradley in 2023. Hovland and Scheffler are set to go head-to-head in the final pairing again tomorrow.

The updated odds to win tell a clear story: This is a classic two-horse race.

The market recognizes the magnitude of Scheffler’s shadow and has priced Hovland generously as a result. The risk is obvious, but the combination of elite ballstriking all week and momentum from the 18th hole on Saturday makes Hovland tough to break for World No. 1.

Updated odds to win Travelers Championship via DraftKings:

• -130: Scottie Scheffler
• +126: Viktor Hovland
• +3000: Patrick Cantlay
• +4600: Akshay Bhatia
• +14000: Wyndham Clark

Draw: Sam Burns, Top 10 (-112)

66. 66. 66.

Sixty-sick stuff from Sam Burns, who has produced three clean Ballstriking rounds and has yet to have the putter heat up. The placement position market is really the only spot for bettors to attack ahead of the final round, and Burns makes an intriguing proposition if he can start converting on the greens.

As we saw last week at Shinnecock Hills, Burns has the profile of a dangerous Sunday player with charging potential. He remains one of the best long-term Bent/Poa putters in the field, as we know the ultra-low rounds are accessible at TPC River Highlands this week.

Burns is T10 headed into Sunday, as is currently the only player T10-or-better on the leaderboard that is losing strokes in the short game category. I trust his acumen to turn that around, and his natural aggressiveness should lend itself to a potential surge past the other contenders in this range.

Fade: Wyndham Clark

Occasionally, we get so deep into the weeds of strokes gained and data points that we forget to listen to what the players are telling us.

“I’m running on fumes. I’m looking forward to next week. I’m not going to touch a club.” Clark made these comments to the media after his third round, where he shot a 5-under 65. His performance this week has been quite impressive, and credit to Clark for not withdrawing from this event after a strenuous victory and celebration from the U.S. Open.

From a betting angle, more often than not, the savvy play is to lean into the post-major-championship tax. It’d be different if he were a bit closer to the leaders and could run off adrenaline to chase them down, but he’s too far back to consider that narrative.

Beyond needing to recharge the batteries, there is a clear regression in his short-game performance. His positioning on the leaderboard has been propped up by a hot putter, which could be smoke and mirrors as his energy levels continue to wane. With the way TPC River Highlands is playing this week, an average putting day on Sunday could leave Clark stuck in neutral.