No matter your current position in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, the Cadence Bank Houston Open presents a marvelous time to play your “can’t miss” talent. Not that you already don’t play the game with him rostered regularly, but if any of your previous haven’t delivered, the stars are aligned to reward you more than usual now.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking

Memorial Park Golf Course will stand tall against red numbers. The scoring average on the par 70 likely will land over par (as it did during its first two spins as host), so overall fantasy scoring will be down.

As a comparison, of the courses that hosted the first seven tournaments of 2022-23, Silverado’s average score in relation to par of -0.482 for the Fortinet Championship is the hardest. Because PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf uses a modified version of Modified Stableford scoring by adjusting the values of par from zero to one point, we won’t be experiencing what this tournament yielded last year – negative values for many golfers in every round – but the spectrum of scoring before bonus points are added will be squished because of the abundance of bogeys and worse. This benefits risk because you lose less ground with a bad week. Just make sure to cover some of that speculative with guys most likely to make the cut so as not to compound the potential.

The other component to leaning into a reach or two is that ownership dispersion will be centralized on a small handful of notables for whom a very high percentage of gamers will have at least one start remaining. Counterarguing statistically, if you play the chalk like I am, a push is a net-win. (I play for the long-term, and we have a long way to go.) However, if your “can’t miss” doesn’t miss, he’s going to be under-owned relative to others. Sure, this example can play out in any tournament, but its impact is greater when overall scoring is subdued. It means that your chance of contending is fractionally better than it is losing more ground in other weeks.

If you’re new to the phenomenon and you don’t mind rolling the dice, give it a try and watch what happens..

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Hideki Matsuyama (-120 for a Top 20) … His next top 20 in a full field will be his first since a solo fourth at the U.S. Open in mid-June. Inconsistency has dogged the 30-year-old, but he still demands (and deserves) our attention because of his firepower. It’s just that he’s positioned as a tweener and not as much of a reach as my advice at the top describes. And because he was a co-runner-up in his only prior trip to Memorial Park (in 2020), there’s zero chance of surprising any of your opposition. So, default to this bet or lower finish for your considerations.

DRAWS

Taylor Pendrith (+170 for a Top 20) … He’s back! He took a month off after the Shriners (T44). Of course, his appearance at the Presidents Cup before that was a late bonus, but all of that stress is ancient history and his skill set already is shaped to do damage at Memorial Park. Although he missed the cut in his debut last year, always remember that any experience is invaluable in the proper mindset.

Luke List (+270 for a Top 20) … Ignore his results upon arrival. Even if they were impressive, that’d be the advice. He’s such a fascinating fit for Memorial Park because of his explosive combination of power and precision tee to green. The track tests all of it AND its par 5s are brutes. In Monday’s Power Rankings, I referenced that putting plays up, which we accept as his weakness, but if he stripes it like he has before, he’ll be rewarded because par will be a good score. Sprinkle your units around and consider him as the risk in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

Will Gordon (+220 for a Top 20) … The 26-year-old is enjoying a classic rebound campaign after cutting his teeth on the Korn Ferry Tour. Seemingly comfortable and confident with traditional membership, he’s already 5-for-5 with a career-best-tying T3 at Mayakoba last week, which was no fluke. Also not a stranger to Memorial Park with a T38 in the inaugural edition in 2020. This bet is bit much, however, so I like him best as a complement in DFS.

Danny Willett (+300 for a Top 20) … The Englishman most definitely has turned a corner from what ailed him for way too long, but we are multiple times bitten and just as often shy of the possibilities. Unless he’s your “can’t miss,” continue to retreat into long-term considerations that allow you to ride out the wrong.

Dean Burmester
Harris English
Emiliano Grillo
Adam Hadwin
Taylor Moore
Aaron Rai
Brendan Steele
Davis Thompson
Brandon Wu

Odds sourced on Tuesday, November 8th at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES

David Lingmerth … For the record, I don’t care a lick that he went 0-for-5 on the previous host of the tournament, nor should you, but sometimes I’m compelled to acknowledge facts even when they’re irrelevant for the sake of answering a question that might be posed. Where he loses me is how infrequently he spikes to warrant yet another week of faith. He was popping at times via Past Champion status last season, but nothing truly materialized in any given week. Then, he captured the second leg of the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to return to the big leagues for good this season and has since gone T11-T8 from Bermuda to Mayakoba. Those are bonuses for gamers who bought in on the long-term, but it’s simply too much to ask for another powerful performance given the variables of this week’s challenge.

Justin Rose … Got back after it at Mayakoba and missed the cut by three. That wasn’t surprising given it’d been almost two months since a sore back bounced him during the BMW PGA Championship. This is his first look at Memorial Park. It should suit his affinity for the classic, ball-striker’s test, and it can be a site at which a veteran of that ilk can find his game, but gamers would settle for a healthy body over the long-term before jumping into the deep end with a unit.

Justin Lower … He’s off to a fantastic start, but I’d like to see how he responds to a test like Memorial Park. He’s not long off the tee and scoring won’t be anywhere as easy as the layouts where he’s exceled recently. I’m intrigued, which is why he receives this attention, but the mode is observation only.

Carl Yuan … You can respect his confidence not to peg it in Bermuda and at Mayakoba, but now the pressure is on to perform this week and/or next to avoid plummeting in the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle category. Of all recent grads, he’s one of only four who haven’t yet cashed this season.

Sebastián Muñoz
Ryan Palmer
Erik van Rooyen
Gary Woodland

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Brandon Matthews … The rookie is off to an inauspicious start with two mid-tournament withdrawals in his first five events with a PGA TOUR card. His first at the Fortinet was attached to an injured back, while an explanation wasn’t released for last week’s early exit at Mayakoba. Of course, whenever any talent taps out, his clock (and our patience) is reset to zero, and it usually takes quite a bit of time to trust that he’s completely ready to compete. There’s greater confidence in a guy who bows out before R1, gets right, and then returns (although Vince Whaley will be testing this theory whenever we see him again; more on him in NOTABLES WDs below). Memorial Park caters to Matthews’ muscle, so it’d be fun to see what he can do in a vacuum, but this isn’t that right now.

NOTABLE WDs

Brendon Todd … His debut at Memorial Park will have to wait another year. Off to a strong start this season with two top 10s contributing to a 4-for-5 record.

C.T. Pan … Four paydays in five starts to open the season, but none went for a top 40.

Greyson Sigg … He’s 5-for-5 on the season with a pair of top 15s, so consider the foundation laid. His ace in the third round at Mayakoba likely will be the most unintentional flex you’ll ever witness, and he acknowledged that it’s his favorite.

Sam Ryder … On the opposite side of the spectrum of holes-in-one, he triggered what likely was the most electric and loudest reaction to any golf shot last season at TPC Scottsdale. More recently, he ended an eight-month drought without a top 10 in individual competition with a T8 in Mexico.

Nate Lashley … If he’s over discomfort in the toe through which he played for months, the results aren’t reflecting it. He’s missed six of his last 11 cuts and has sputtered to open the new season with but a T35 in Bermuda his best finish among three paydays.

Vince Whaley … Since opening 2022-23 by going 1-for-3 with a T61 at the Sanderson Farms, he’s withdrawn early from each of this last three commitments. No news has emerged to explain why. It’s a trend that stands in stark contrast to the fact that he didn’t WD early from a commitment in any of his first three seasons on the PGA TOUR.

RECAP – World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Viktor Hovland T10
2 Scottie Scheffler T3
3 Aaron Wise T15
4 Billy Horschel T56
5 Tom Hoge MC
6 Seamus Power T3
7 Emiliano Grillo T42
8 Brendon Todd T53
9 Tony Finau MC
10 Thomas Detry T15
11 Justin Lower T56
12 Maverick McNealy T10
13 Patrick Rodgers T27
14 J.J. Spaun T15
15 Taylor Montgomery T10
Wild Card Collin Morikawa T15

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result
Andrew Putnam (+170 for a Top 20) T48
Nick Taylor (+350 for a Top 20) T53
Ryan Armour T21
Adri Arnaus MC
Tyler Duncan MC

GOLFBET
Bet: Scottie Scheffler, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge & Brendon Todd all finish in the top 20 – +1600
Result: T3, T10, MC, T53

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

November 8 … Francesco Molinari (40)
November 9 … Ted Potter, Jr. (39); Nicholas Lindheim (38)
November 10 … Jon Rahm (28)
November 11 … Robert Garrigus (45); Joel Dahmen (35)
November 12 … Lucas Glover (43); Chez Reavie (41); Jason Day (35); C.T. Pan (31); Carson Young (28)
November 13 … Trevor Cone (30)
November 14 … none

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