Benny and the Bets: Outrageous WM Phoenix Open trends you need to know

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – The oddsmakers know. So you should, too.

The WM Phoenix Open is the true clash of current form and course form, perhaps more than any other PGA TOUR venue, and you need to be aware of the colliding trends before you place any bets for TPC Scottsdale.

The last 14 winners of the WM Phoenix Open all entered the event having at least one top 10 in their previous five TOUR starts. Showing some current form is imperative when entering the coliseum amongst the throngs of thousands of fans.

But that’s not all. The last nine straight winners not only had the current form but also a previous top 10 result (top seven, actually) at the WM Phoenix Open before taking home the trophy.

So if the double trend is to continue there are only 18 players in the field at TPC Scottsdale that can win this week – and don’t think oddsmakers are unaware. The top five on the FanDuel Sportsbook odds board are part of this trending crew. Honestly, I’m also thinking your winner comes from this quintet:

Scottie Scheffler +280 – The odds are eye-popping, but also justified. A two-time winner of this event who arguably couldhave won it four times now, and probably shouldhave won it a year ago, until putting woes down the stretch cost him. He returned from his hand surgery last week with a T9 at Pebble Beach where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Justin Thomas +1200 – The Golfbet crew highlighted this event late last year for Thomas when he was out at +2500 so hopefully some of you jumped on board then. As he continues to sneak up on his first win in almost three years it’s important to know he has finished inside the top 17 of this event for seven straight years, inside the top four three times.

Hideki Matsuyama +1600 – Like Scheffler, Matsuyama is a former back-to-back champion of the event in 2016 and 2017 which came after being T4 and T2 the prior two attempts. Has never missed the cut at TPC Scottsdale (he withdrew in 2018 after the first round), and of course recently won at The Sentry.

Sungjae Im +2200 – Third at The Sentry and T4 at the Farmers Insurance Open shows the two-time TOUR winner has his form in a decent spot. When you add two previous WM Phoenix Open top 10s you get a guy primed to pounce.

Sam Burns +2500 – While there is plenty of hype around Scheffler, his good friend Burns is quietly trending to something big. A T6 in 2023 and a T3 in 2024 at TPC Scottsdale shows he has the desert course mapped and he opened this season with a T8 at The Sentry.

If you think a longshot can come from the clouds and take out the favorites, much like what happened a year ago, here are my next four to watch – a group that not-so-coincidently features the two men who took down Scheffler and battled out a playoff a year ago.

Nick Taylor +6500 – The defending champion was 100-to-1 a year ago despite being runner-up to Scheffler in 2023. He showed such ruthless tenacity down the stretch to win that I was ready to anoint him a contender at THE PLAYERS Championship off the back of the victory. While his form nosedived for the rest of 2024, the Canadian rebounded to win the Sony Open in Hawaii last month.

Charley Hoffman +12000 – The crowd and sponsor favorite almost stole it all a year ago before falling just short against Taylor and I would have been prepared to say it was nothing but a random spike before he contended with a T5 at The American Express just a few weeks ago. He was also a runner-up way back in 2009 and you know he will bring the energy after calling out his fellow pros to do the same this week.

Daniel Berger +12000 – It’s not a matter of if, it is a matter of when Berger returns to the winner’s circle on the PGA TOUR after a few years truncated with injury. His climb back is in full swing now and he has three previous top 10s in Phoenix. Was a runner-up on TOUR five starts ago.

Andrew Novak +9000 Last week's T13 at Pebble Beach was preceded by a third-place finish at Torrey Pines, and many may have forgotten that this man opened the WM Phoenix Open 65-65 to be T2 at the halfway point before ultimately finishing T8.

If you must know, the others who qualify on the double trend of course form and recent performance – you can also consider Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, Kurt Kitayama, K.H. Lee, Maverick McNealy, J.J. Spaun, Camilo Villegas, Gary Woodland and Cameron Young.

I’ll no doubt highlight some of these players in Sleeper Picks this week, but for now let’s see what my first attempt at a betting card would look like:

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Justin Thomas +1200
• Outright: Sam Burns +2500
• Prop: Top-10 finish - Andrew Novak +500
• Prop: Top-20 finish - Daniel Berger +300

And finally – DON’T FORGET – the ESPN BET stream on PGA TOUR LIVE debuts this week across all four rounds of competition. Get the latest information that will provide key data, insights and live betting analysis during coverage of six marquee FedExCup events, starting with all four days from the WM Phoenix Open on ESPN+!

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.