Scottie Scheffler’s rollercoaster round leaves betting conundrum at WM Phoenix Open

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler’s rollercoaster opening round at TPC Scottsdale has opened up a bettor’s conundrum at the WM Phoenix Open.

On a day where he carded two eagles, one coming out of a fairway bunker from 104 yards, but also a double bogey and three bogeys, Scheffler’s odds yoyoed more than we’ve seen in many months.

At the end of the day the Texan expertly rescued a rusty round by picking up four shots in his last six holes to shoot a 2-under 69 and remain in touch for a third tournament victory despite spotting leader Wyndham Clark five shots.

Scheffler, who was the +270 favorite as play began, drifted out to +900 through his first nine holes thanks to three bogeys against just a lone birdie but his hole out from the sand on the 10th sent him back to +400.

The oddsmakers once again gave live bettors a window of opportunity when Scheffler’s tee shot on the par-3 12th hole found water and resulted in a double bogey. True believers could have snapped up +1000 odds in that moment and will be happy they did after his birdies on 13 and 17 and a clutch eagle on 15.

Such is his dominance in the world of golf – and at TPC Scottsdale where he’s finished no worse than T7 in the last four years including wins in 2022 and 2023 – Scheffler remains the betting favorite despite being five back and T27.

FanDuel Sportsbook has him at +450 when the first round was halted for darkness with fellow major winners Justin Thomas (+600) and Clark (+750) close behind.

Clark’s bogey-free 7-under 64 paced the opening round and had him one shot clear of Lee Hodges and Taylor Moore.

Thomas sits in a six-way tie for fourth place at 5-under with Nicolai Højgaard, Andrew Putnam, Akshay Bhatia, Camilo Villegas and Adam Schenk. Jake Knapp, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Alex Smalley and Thomas Detry are tied 10th at 4-under.

The latest outright odds are as follows:

• +450: Scottie Scheffler (-2, T27)
• +600: Justin Thomas (-5, T4)
• +750: Wyndham Clark (-7, first)
• +1400: Tom Kim (-4, T10)
• +1600: Lee Hodges (-6, T2)
• +1600: Taylor Moore (-6, T2)
• +1800: Akshay Bhatia (-5, T4)
• +2200: Corey Conners (-4, T10)

So now to the conundrum. Is +450 a price to pounce on Scheffler? Basically you have three options …

1. BET SCHEFFLER NOW at +450
2. DON’T BET SCHEFFLER at all
3. WAIT FOR ANOTHER ROLLERCOASTER RIDE

Option 1:

Yellow light

Scheffler is clearly a horse for this course having finished T7-first-first-third in his last four trips here, and he’s a class above everyone in the world of golf over the last few years. Last season I spent many weeks fading him in these positions only to get burned so I won’t go that far, especially given he ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach on Thursday. He did however struggle in SG: Around-the-Green (-1.325) and SG: Putting (-1.811) to be ranked near the back of the field. If he doesn’t fix that, he won’t catch the leaders. If he does, he will spook the contenders as he climbs the boards.

Option 2

There is no harm in this approach even though at times it feels inevitable the Texan will find a way to win. The above-mentioned issues in round one are a concern after all and Scheffler headed right to the range post-round to grind on his game. There are plenty of great players ahead of him on this leaderboard.

Option 3: Green light

The most prudent move for those looking to get some Scheffler action might be waiting for another rollercoaster move with his odds. If you already managed to do so in round one and jump on at either +900 or +1000 you are in great shape at this stage. But if you missed the boat, the +450 is harder to swallow. Scheffler starts on the back nine in the morning wave on Friday with holes 10-12 averaging over par (despite the fact he eagled 10 on Thursday). The par-3 12th, where he rinsed his tee shot, is the hardest hole on the course so far. If you wait until Scheffler plays that hole, you might get some more juice before he hits the scoring holes of 13-18. That is where I’d be focused.

Non-Scheffler division

To be clear, I’m not saying Scheffler is your only option! My pre-tournament selection of Thomas is sitting well poised just two back as he looks to make it eight straight attempts to finish in the top 17 here. I’m banking on ending his win drought that is closing in on three years. Importantly, Thomas ranked 11th in SG: Putting on Thursday, a part of his game he needs to fire to contend.

Both Thomas and Scheffler were part of the 18 players who fit the important double trend at TPC Scottsdale - the last 14 winners of the WM Phoenix Open all came into the event having at least one top 10 in their previous five TOUR starts and the last nine straight winners not only had the current form, but also a previous top 10 result at the WM Phoenix Open before taking home the trophy.

Of that list, Camilo Villegas (+17000), Daniel Berger (+7000), Sam Burns (+6000), Sungjae Im (+3500), Kurt Kitayama (+5000), Hideki Matsuyama (+4000), Maverick McNealy (+12000), Andrew Novak (+9000), Nick Taylor (+15000), Gary Woodland (+22000) are all under par after the opening round.

All of the above should be on your radar for place markets. Good luck!

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.