With Scottie Scheffler hogging the trophies these days, all the tickets to win the U.S. Open without his name on it in the outright market feel like they present as sucker bets. So, diversify.

But first, revisit my message in last week’s Golfbet Insider that the best of the best have approached the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday and the U.S. Open as a fortnight of competition. It’s different than their customary cadence of this tandem across three weeks, but it should cater to the haymakers who understand how to balance for two consecutive tough tests. Letup in any who played well at Muirfield Village would be a surprise.

With that in mind and respecting Scheffler’s brilliance, zero in on the market that excludes him. PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele sits atop BetMGM’s outright “without Scheffler” market at +900. That’s much tastier, but Collin Morikawa slots second in my Power Rankings and he’s at +1200. While you can’t go wrong with either major champion in tiptop form, Morikawa has found another gear since a T3 at the Masters. It’s his time again.

To balance your card, review the 46 options on the Make/Miss-the-Cut board that range from Scheffler at +800 to Tiger Woods at -300. The cut of low 60 and ties after two rounds is the stingiest in golf for what often is the most democratic of contests. Exploit it.

Lastly, dive into the place markets for tons of value. My Sleepers column features a through line of bogey avoidance as an attribute for success, but you could swim around in the Top 40 market all day and place bets with promise.

Just remember to leave room for a unit for Scheffler to win.

Weather

No changes to the expected heat. What little chance for rain previously populated in the forecast has been all but erased. Wind always is a wild card but there are no fears for it to be a headline.

With variables quelled, all of the focus shifts to the Ultradwarf Bermudagrass greens and the staff that cares for them. The surface is so much more tolerant of the conditions on tap than the previous bentgrass greens, so keeping them in check is theoretically easier during every day across four rounds. Fans (and golfers) triggered by previous episodes of U.S. Open greens getting out of control should experience an outcome of only fear, not reality. Pinehurst No. 2 is too pure of a test for those in control to let go of the reins. Its challenges on approach, scrambling for pars and reading greens are enough individually and collectively.

Power Rankings wild card

Wyndham Clark (+150 = Miss the Cut) … At the 10:38 mark of “Talk of the TOUR” for the Memorial and in response to my recommendation to invest in Clark, host John Swantek said, “You just can’t quit Wyndham. I get it.” Sadly, I didn’t. But now it’s time. I’m not at all concerned that Clark is the defending champion this week because he’s already been through those emotions in that role (at the Wells Fargo Championship), but what impresses on paper and his comfort in the spotlight isn’t matching in practice. While he has a (54-hole) victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am highlighting four podium finishes this year, he arrives having missed the cut in each of the first two majors and last week at Muirfield Village.

Other notables

Jordan Spieth (+150 = Miss the Cut) … As much as he’s deserved the benefit of the doubt, it’s been four months since his lack of concentration led to disqualification at The Genesis Invitational. Sure, it’s an honest mistake but he’s gone on to miss five cuts and now sits just one shy of matching his single-season high (2022-23). With uninspiring form upon arrival that includes six over-par scores in his last seven rounds, you’d have understood if BetMGM omitted him from this market this week.

Alex Noren (+320 = Top 20) … It can be easy to dismiss a flurry of top 20s in between tentpole stops, and for many it’s the right move, just not for the Swede with six top 20s in his last 10 starts, including a T19 in THE PLAYERS Championship and T12 in the PGA Championship. He continues to enjoy this later career surge on the shoulders of an all-around game that slots him T18 in greens hit, 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, third in scrambling, third in bogey avoidance, T3 in par-4 scoring and fifth in adjusted scoring. He’s also a veteran in the majors, so experience and patience are unquantifiable weapons.

Billy Horschel (+400 = Top 20) … The year after he made his professional debut in the U.S. Open with a T4 in 2013, he finished T23 at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014. That was the same year in which he won the FedExCup and he hasn’t fared better in this major since despite his affinity for tough tracks. The timing of his return to Pinehurst aligns with solid form that’s yielded seven top 20s in 2024, including a victory at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T15 at the Memorial where he was locked in on speedy greens. For the season, he’s fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and adjusted scoring. The 37-year-old also sits T2 in par-3 scoring, 13th in scrambling and 11th in bogey avoidance.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Taylor Pendrith-Top Canadian and Rory McIlroy-Top Irish (+1000)
• PARLAY: Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa (+650 = Both to Finish Inside the Top 10)
• PARLAY: Matt Fitzpatrick and Billy Horschel (+1200 = Both to Finish Insider the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Dean Burmester and Billy Horschel (+210 = All to Make the Cut)
• Byeong Hun An (+250 = Top 20)
• Sam Bennett (+450 = Top 40)
• Thomas Detry (+150 = Top 40)
• Harris English (+140 = Top 40)
• Denny McCarthy (+140 = Top 40)
• Taylor Pendrith (+600 = Top Canadian)
• Gordon Sargent (+400 = Top 40)

Notable WDs

Jon Rahm … Announced on Tuesday afternoon that he will not be ready to go due to an infected lesion in his left foot. The 2024 majors have been forgettable thus far for the 2023 Masters champion. He defended that title with a T45, and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship.

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