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Power Rankings: TOUR Championship
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August 30, 2021
By Rob Bolton , PGATOUR.COM
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Top 10
All-time shots from the TOUR Championship
It’s the big 5-0!
The 50-event super season concludes with this week’s TOUR Championship. If the playoff between Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship was the pregame for the final celebration of 2020-21, then we’re in store for quite a show at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
After surviving six holes of sudden death to prevail on Sunday, Cantlay rose to No. 1 in the FedExCup standings, so he will start atop the leaderboard on Thursday. You’ll find the explanation for that, how Starting Strokes influenced the first two editions of the Playoffs finale and much more beneath the ranking.
NOTE: This full-field Power Rankings includes starting score for every golfer in the field.
POWER RANKINGS: TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP
RANK PLAYER COMMENT 30 
Patrick Reed Even par. Sidelined by an ankle injury that thwarted a start at Liberty National and hospitalized by pneumonia last week, his stamina will be tested assuming he can fulfill the commitment.Even par. Sidelined by an ankle injury that thwarted a start at Liberty National and hospitalized by pneumonia last week, his stamina will be tested assuming he can fulfill the commitment.
29 
Kevin Na 2-under. The 19-seed is making his eighth appearance at East Lake, a course that has challenged him every time. He’s yet to submit a 72-hole aggregate better than 1-over 281 (2015).
2-under. The 19-seed is making his eighth appearance at East Lake, a course that has challenged him every time. He’s yet to submit a 72-hole aggregate better than 1-over 281 (2015).
28 
Stewart Cink 1-under. Punctuates a resurgent season at the age of 48 with his first trip to East Lake in 12 years. Never played it great, but the course probably looks quite different, anyway.
1-under. Punctuates a resurgent season at the age of 48 with his first trip to East Lake in 12 years. Never played it great, but the course probably looks quite different, anyway.
27 
Joaquin Niemann 1-under. His usually reliable putter has let him down in the Playoffs but he’s continued to score well on the par 5s. Ranked last in par-5 scoring in his debut here last year, however.
1-under. His usually reliable putter has let him down in the Playoffs but he’s continued to score well on the par 5s. Ranked last in par-5 scoring in his debut here last year, however.
26 
Billy Horschel Even par. He’s finished first (2014), second (2018) and last (2020) in last three trips to East Lake. Form upon arrival this week is uninspiring. No top 30s in full-field events in over three months.
Even par. He’s finished first (2014), second (2018) and last (2020) in last three trips to East Lake. Form upon arrival this week is uninspiring. No top 30s in full-field events in over three months.
25 
Erik van Rooyen Even par. Beware the first-timer just happy to be here, but he’s been on fire all month and can only get better. Averaging 13 GIR per round and leading the Playoffs in scrambling at 80 percent.
Even par. Beware the first-timer just happy to be here, but he’s been on fire all month and can only get better. Averaging 13 GIR per round and leading the Playoffs in scrambling at 80 percent.
24 
Collin Morikawa 3-under. Straight strugglin’, and in all facets. His usually efficient tee-to-green game abandoned him in the first two events. Can’t rule out how much a sore back has affected his swing.
3-under. Straight strugglin’, and in all facets. His usually efficient tee-to-green game abandoned him in the first two events. Can’t rule out how much a sore back has affected his swing.
23 
Hideki Matsuyama 1-under. Hasn’t rested since the Olympics, so this is his sixth straight start worldwide. It’s not showing in the scores as he’s been par or lower throughout, but he’s MC-T43-T46 upon arrival.
1-under. Hasn’t rested since the Olympics, so this is his sixth straight start worldwide. It’s not showing in the scores as he’s been par or lower throughout, but he’s MC-T43-T46 upon arrival.
22 
Sergio Garcia Even par. It’s the Spaniard’s first visit to East Lake since 2017. He’s fared well over the years what with five top 10s in six appearances in the Playoffs era, but he’ll have to floor it for another.
Even par. It’s the Spaniard’s first visit to East Lake since 2017. He’s fared well over the years what with five top 10s in six appearances in the Playoffs era, but he’ll have to floor it for another.
21 
Harris English 4-under. The 7-seed is highest among all without a top 25 in either of the first two Playoffs events (despite eight red numbers), so he’s lost momentum that lifted him to enter slotted fourth.
4-under. The 7-seed is highest among all without a top 25 in either of the first two Playoffs events (despite eight red numbers), so he’s lost momentum that lifted him to enter slotted fourth.
20 
Louis Oosthuizen 3-under. After a sore neck sidelined him for two weeks, it took him two rounds at Caves Valley to shed the rust on his putter. Scored 12 strokes lower on the weekend for a T38.
3-under. After a sore neck sidelined him for two weeks, it took him two rounds at Caves Valley to shed the rust on his putter. Scored 12 strokes lower on the weekend for a T38.
19 
Jason Kokrak 2-under. Can’t complain about a T15 at Caves Valley given that he opened with a 1-over 73. The momentum of the last three rounds (68-65-66) plays into his profile as a streaky talent.
2-under. Can’t complain about a T15 at Caves Valley given that he opened with a 1-over 73. The momentum of the last three rounds (68-65-66) plays into his profile as a streaky talent.
18 
Daniel Berger Even par. It’s an upset that he’s slid to 26th in points because of the phenomenal season he’s had. So, of the guys opening tied for last, he presents as likely to make the most noise.
Even par. It’s an upset that he’s slid to 26th in points because of the phenomenal season he’s had. So, of the guys opening tied for last, he presents as likely to make the most noise.
17 
Cameron Smith 5-under. Slowed to T34 at Caves Valley after losing the playoff at Liberty National. He can taste the title from here but he’ll have to improve on a pair of even-par 280s at East Lake (2018, 2020).
5-under. Slowed to T34 at Caves Valley after losing the playoff at Liberty National. He can taste the title from here but he’ll have to improve on a pair of even-par 280s at East Lake (2018, 2020).
16 
Corey Conners 1-under. To say that he’s surging is to overlook the entirety of a marvelous season, but, indeed, he’s angling upward relative to others. Leading the Playoffs in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
1-under. To say that he’s surging is to overlook the entirety of a marvelous season, but, indeed, he’s angling upward relative to others. Leading the Playoffs in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
15 
Scottie Scheffler 1-under. The only PGA TOUR non-winner in the field makes it 2-for-2 as a member at East Lake, a feat that is not easy to achieve. Opened 2-under here last year and finished fifth.
1-under. The only PGA TOUR non-winner in the field makes it 2-for-2 as a member at East Lake, a feat that is not easy to achieve. Opened 2-under here last year and finished fifth.
14 
Viktor Hovland 3-under. He’s leading the Playoffs in total driving and he paced the field in GIR in his debut here last year. Also under par and progressively lower in every round at Caves Valley (T17).
3-under. He’s leading the Playoffs in total driving and he paced the field in GIR in his debut here last year. Also under par and progressively lower in every round at Caves Valley (T17).
13 
Abraham Ancer 4-under. Third appearance but first as a PGA TOUR winner. T9 at Caves Valley where he led the field in proximity and was third in total distance of putts holed. Opened with 64 here last year.
4-under. Third appearance but first as a PGA TOUR winner. T9 at Caves Valley where he led the field in proximity and was third in total distance of putts holed. Opened with 64 here last year.
12 
Sam Burns 4-under. Save stumbles in the majors, he hasn’t let up since breaking through at Copperhead in early May. With his firepower, the 10-seed is a threat to win despite his opening deficit.
4-under. Save stumbles in the majors, he hasn’t let up since breaking through at Copperhead in early May. With his firepower, the 10-seed is a threat to win despite his opening deficit.
11 
Sungjae Im 3-under. He (31st), Garcia (40th) and van Rooyen (76th) are the only here who started the Playoffs outside the top 30. Im sat second at last year’s midpoint after opening at 4-under; finished 11th.
3-under. He (31st), Garcia (40th) and van Rooyen (76th) are the only here who started the Playoffs outside the top 30. Im sat second at last year’s midpoint after opening at 4-under; finished 11th.
10 
Jordan Spieth 4-under. In opening Playoffs 73rd-T34 and falling from second to ninth in points, he’s given back four Starting Strokes at East Lake, but he’s a former winner (2015) and runner-up (2013) here.
4-under. In opening Playoffs 73rd-T34 and falling from second to ninth in points, he’s given back four Starting Strokes at East Lake, but he’s a former winner (2015) and runner-up (2013) here.
9 
Brooks Koepka 2-under. Back for redemption after squandering the 54-hole lead in 2019, finishing T3. He opened that edition five strokes lower, however. Tee-to-green game has been on point in these Playoffs.
2-under. Back for redemption after squandering the 54-hole lead in 2019, finishing T3. He opened that edition five strokes lower, however. Tee-to-green game has been on point in these Playoffs.
8 
Xander Schauffele 2-under. The gold medalist leads a faction that might be on fumes, but maybe East Lake is the elixir he needs. The 2017 champ was low man last year. Scoring average in 16 rounds = 67.38.
2-under. The gold medalist leads a faction that might be on fumes, but maybe East Lake is the elixir he needs. The 2017 champ was low man last year. Scoring average in 16 rounds = 67.38.
7 
Dustin Johnson 3-under. The 15-seed gained two strokes to open this week after a T6 last week. Prevailed at the top seed last year. His firepower is a staple but no one has won consecutive FedExCups.
3-under. The 15-seed gained two strokes to open this week after a T6 last week. Prevailed at the top seed last year. His firepower is a staple but no one has won consecutive FedExCups.
6 
Rory McIlroy 2-under. With a solo fourth at the BMW, he not only advanced, he also picked up two strokes as the 16-seed. Two wins and a T2 among six top 10s at East Lake with a scoring average of 68.36.
2-under. With a solo fourth at the BMW, he not only advanced, he also picked up two strokes as the 16-seed. Two wins and a T2 among six top 10s at East Lake with a scoring average of 68.36.
5 
Patrick Cantlay 10-under. Classic something-will-give setup. Top seed fresh off winning the memorable BMW playoff has struggled at East Lake. Only four red numbers in 12 rounds with an average of 70.83.
10-under. Classic something-will-give setup. Top seed fresh off winning the memorable BMW playoff has struggled at East Lake. Only four red numbers in 12 rounds with an average of 70.83.
4 
Justin Thomas 4-under. T4 at Liberty National fortified his position to open here as the 6-seed. Impeccable record at East Lake includes a pair of runner-up finishes among five top sevens in as many trips.
4-under. T4 at Liberty National fortified his position to open here as the 6-seed. Impeccable record at East Lake includes a pair of runner-up finishes among five top sevens in as many trips.
3 
Tony Finau 8-under. Strides in on the confidence of victory at THE NORTHERN TRUST and a field-low 63 in the finale at the BMW Championship (T15). No worse than 72 in 16 rounds at East Lake (68.88).
8-under. Strides in on the confidence of victory at THE NORTHERN TRUST and a field-low 63 in the finale at the BMW Championship (T15). No worse than 72 in 16 rounds at East Lake (68.88).
2 
Bryson DeChambeau 7-under. Seeded third after the playoff loss at Caves Valley. Leading the FedExCup Playoffs in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, putts per GIR and converting GIR into par breakers.
7-under. Seeded third after the playoff loss at Caves Valley. Leading the FedExCup Playoffs in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, putts per GIR and converting GIR into par breakers.
1 
Jon Rahm 6-under. The TOUR’s leader in the all-around has gone Win-7th-T3-3rd-T9 worldwide since the U.S. Open. Sparkling record at East Lake is showcased by a scoring average of 68.75 in 16 rounds.
6-under. The TOUR’s leader in the all-around has gone Win-7th-T3-3rd-T9 worldwide since the U.S. Open. Sparkling record at East Lake is showcased by a scoring average of 68.75 in 16 rounds.
Tabulation of FedExCup points ended at the BMW Championship, so only scores matters now. Starting Strokes was introduced at the TOUR Championship in 2019. It’s the compromise between rewarding bodies of work in the long- and short-term, and the promise to crown the winner of the tournament as the FedExCup champion.
Unlike all other stroke-play competitions, the golfer with the lowest 72-hole aggregate at the TOUR Championship isn’t necessarily going to be the winner, but that’s how it worked out when Rory McIlroy captured the title in 2019. As the 5-seed, he opened at 5-under, and then scored 13-under (267). His 72-hole aggregate was three better than the second-lowest, but all that mattered was that his final score in relation to par of 18-under (5-under + 13-under) was the best in the field.
In fact, the winner is determined on score in relation to par with Starting Strokes contributing, and that did matter in the second spin.
Starting Strokes aided Dustin Johnson in emerging with his first FedExCup title last year. He opened at 10-under, shot 11-under during the tournament and posted 21-under for a three-stroke victory. However, his 72-hole aggregate was 269 was good for just T3 without Starting Strokes contributing. Xander Schauffele was lowest at 15-under 265 but opened at just 3-under as the 14-seed, so he settled for co-runner-up (with Justin Thomas) at 18-under.
Unlike trends based on FedExCup points and positions, which are unique to every season, Starting Strokes has laid the foundation for an apples-to-apples comparison between TOUR Championships. Consider that in each of the first two editions, exactly six golfers seeded 12th or worse upon arrival finished inside the top 10 in relation to par at the conclusion of their respective events. (That’s a total of 12 among the combined 21 top 10s.) The highest climb to date belongs to 25-seed Chez Reavie in 2019. He opened at 1-under, shot 5-under and finished eighth at 6-under. Last year’s biggest riser was Tyrrell Hatton, who opened at 2-under as the 19-seed, and then shot 10-under for a combined 12-under and seventh place.
Of course, movement occurs in the other direction as well. Coincidentally given Sunday’s duel, the top drops of the first two TOUR Championships with Starting Strokes were Cantlay (2019) and DeChambeau (2020). Cantlay opened as the 2-seed and finished T21. DeChambeau finished 22nd last year as the 8-seed.
After the unknown of Caves Valley, the familiar backdrop of East Lake awaits. It remains a stock par 70 at 7,346 yards with bermudagrass greens ready to roll up to 13 feet on the Stimpmeter. Primary rough again is 2½ inches high. Essentially, for the 28 who have given it a go here before, it’s an open-book examination. Yes, that means that debutants 10-seed Sam Burns and 27-seed Erik van Rooyen are cramming, but they aced the first two tests, anyway.
After East Lake held up for a historically average 70.033 in 2019, it proved to be vulnerable last year at 68.917. It was its lowest scoring average since 2007, the last edition before Rees Jones’ second of three renovations to the course. (Course scoring averages are not influenced by Starting Strokes.)
Despite that dip, because the course is the same, the objective is the same – hit greens and sink putts. However, setting up scoring opportunities also remains the primary challenge. East Lake held firm in allowing a customary 11.6 GIR per round last year, 12th-lowest among all courses last season.
Getting the ball onto the putting surfaces is harder than getting it into the hole. Last year’s field converted one-third of GIR into par breakers. That also aligns with recent history, but it connected in salvaging par 60.81 percent of the time, a record high at East Lake.
The pair of par 5s – Nos. 6 and 18 – are most vulnerable and always have been. En route to his victory, DJ recorded six birdies and two pars on the set to rank T5 in par-5 scoring for the week. He also supported the theme of how the long game trumps the accurate at East Lake. He was T2 in distance of all drives but 28th in fairways split, yet still finished T5 in GIR, T11 in proximity to the hole and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putting was good enough to total 20 birdies against nine bogeys.
What’s left on the backside of Hurricane Ida that will skirt northern Georgia will be long gone by the time the turf on the first tee box is pierced on Thursday. Outstanding conditions throughout the tournament will allow for East Lake to present as planned. Daytime temperatures will climb into the 80s and winds will be light. A few pillows passing in the sky won’t develop into anything.
In addition to forever being known as the 15th FedExCup champion, the winner also will record an official victory and a five-year PGA TOUR membership exemption. By qualifying for the Playoffs finale, all 30 in the field receive exemptions into the 2022 editions of the Masters, U.S. Open and The Open Championship if not already eligible. All prize money distributed is unofficial but very real. The winner pockets $15 million.
ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM’s Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous angles. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider, Expert Picks
SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Rookie Watch* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.
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