Sleeper Picks: The British Open Championship

Outright

Justin Rose (+3900) ... Because I’m 0-for(ever) in this market in Sleepers – understandable given the 15 in the Power Rankings are ineligible, yet still annoying – I’ve switched gears and have gone all-in on a purely analytical approach. This takes me back to my early days before I learned how much of prognostication is an art form versus raw science. While the magic of “The EliminaTOUR” on this week’s “PGA TOUR – The Drop” whittled down to Rory McIlroy, who is a mere +850 to prevail, my magic is just as convincing with the kicker of a kickback of more than four times that.

So, here it is: Mark O'Meara (1998), Padraig Harrington (2008) and Jordan Spieth (2017) are the last three winners of The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. In the years that they won, each had multiple top-five finishes earlier in the same season and each already had won at least one major. Rose captured what so far is his lone victory in a major at the 2013 U.S. Open and he has two top fives in 2026 – a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the Masters.

Top 5

Russell Henley (+750) ... First of all, each of the last five bets here reflects odds with ties that are available only pre-tournament, but each also has a market for which dead heat rules apply, so browse for your specifications. As it concerns the 37-year-old in his 12th start at The Open, experience finally paid off in the last two. He finished a career-best fifth at Royal Troon in 2024, and then answered that with a next-best T10 at Royal Portrush last year. Four starts ago, he won the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he stunned Eric Cole with a birdie-birdie-birdie finish to force a playoff, and he finished T3 in the Masters four starts before that, so if you’re keen on quirky trends, that one is for you.

Henley currently leads the PGA TOUR in fairways hit and ranks third in scrambling and fourth in bogey avoidance. And he’s also on top in final-round performance, which measures the change of position on the leaderboard compared to the third (or penultimate round). His clip is 91.67% (against a TOUR average of 53.65%). Percentages are inversely proportional to frequency of fading. In layman’s terms, it means that he not only never quits, he never quits better than everyone else. His final-round scoring average of 68.50 easily outpaces his averages in the first three rounds.

Top 10

Brian Harman (+630) ... Although the 2023 champ at Royal Liverpool has cashed in 10 straight majors, he hasn’t had a top 10 anywhere since a T10 at Royal Portrush last year. What’s more, including his victory, he’s recorded a top 10 in three of the last four editions of the major. In his other 37 career appearances in all majors combined, he had just one top 10 – a T2 at the 2017 U.S. Open. So, we’re treated to favorable odds for a grizzled veteran who’s already reached the mountaintop and in the tournament that he scaled to get there. He’ll contend in leading the field in fairways hit, so he’s infrequently out of position to attack on approach.

Top 20

Akshay Bhatia (+300) ... Never be ashamed to go right back to the well after it quenched your thirst the first time. If anything, it can be foolish to think that it’s dry after you’ve been sated. The lefty appeared in this space for this market (+230) for the Travelers Championship and delivered a T5 that was punctuated by a second-round 62. He had earned that attention on the heels of a T17 at the U.S. Open that extinguished a run of lackluster form. His odds for a threepeat in this market are understandably longer in the 156-man field at Royal Birkdale, but we’d never complain about that. Currently second on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and third in converting greens in regulation into par breakers. And he’s already taken down a robust field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard this year.

Top 30

Sam Stevens (+320) ... The 30-year-old born on the Fourth of July finally is making his debut in The Open. He was just outside the bubble for entry last year but has populated the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking for the majority of the last 12 months and led the cohort of 15 that The R&A plucked from the OWGR on July 6 to help fill the field. If the influence of what positioned him comfortably to qualify pays forward, fulfilling this wager will be better than a coin flip. He’s 8-for-8 in majors with top 25s in three of his last four, including a T24 in his debut at the Masters and a T7 at the U.S. Open, both earlier this year. His current weakness is putting, but the unfamiliarity with the greens at Royal Birkdale favors his tee-to-green skill set. And as a native of the Great Plains – from Texas to Kansas to his collegiate stomping grounds of Oklahoma State University – he’s not only gritty, he’s ready to rock if the wind blows.

Top 40

Stewart Cink (+270) ... If the 53-year-old is going to compete in earnest in a PGA TOUR event, it’s going to be in The Open. Although it’s a major, it has rewarded men of a certain age handsomely, not the least of which the guy who he beat in a playoff at Turnberry in 2009, Tom Watson, who was 59 at the time. But Cink isn’t just a ceremonial entrant coasting on the benefit of an exemption into The Open as a winner through age 60, he’s been dominating the PGA TOUR Champions. This year alone, he has four wins and sits atop the Charles Schwab Cup Points List. And although he’s cashed in just one of his last seven starts in majors dating back to the 2022 U.S. Open, that yielded a T23 at Royal Liverpool in 2023.

Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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