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Sleeper Picks: Valero Texas Open

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Sleeper Picks

DraftKings odds: Elite iron players draw attention at Valero

DraftKings odds: Elite iron players draw attention at Valero

    Written by Rob Bolton

    NOTE: Sleeper Picks first appeared in "The Early Card" newsletter on Tuesday. To get these before everyone else, subscribe and get them straight to your inbox one day ahead. These picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

    Top 20

    Bronson Burgoon (+395) ... Hello, again. It was just last week when he delivered a top-30 finish after appearing in this space. He competed at the Texas Children’s Houston Open via a sponsor exemption. That T10 yielded the top-10 exemption into the Valero Texas Open, so the 38-year-old gets another free play on the PGA TOUR in his home state while enjoying arguably the best form of his career. Of course, DraftKings can’t give it away like it did at Memorial Park Golf Course, where he was available at the same odds for a top 30, but he’s rolled together seven straight top 20s upon arrival since September. The first six all were on the Korn Ferry Tour. While just 2-for-6 and without a top-55 finish at TPC San Antonio, 15 competitive rounds serve as ample experience to feed into his current mojo.

    Top 30

    Matt Kuchar (+220) ... Having kept a career earnings exemption in his pocket this season, he’s a test for how playing time is impacted between his slot in the Priority Rankings and his actual position in the Nos. 111-125 category. This is his sixth start of 2026, so he’s easily on pace to exceed last year’s total of 18. While neither of his paydays this season yielded a top 40, it’s likely that the Valero contributed to his calculus to holster the career earnings exemption. Since TPC San Antonio took the reins, he’s 12-for-13 with four top 10s and another four top 20s on it. That includes a T18 last year. Although he’s 47 years old and never long off the tee, he’s forever been a straight shooter with a low ball flight equipped for control in the winds of Texas. He’s also retained his reputation as an elite putter.

    Top 40

    Chandler Phillips (+250) ... Focusing only on the cohort in this market longer than +200, I want a native Texan for whom the breezes of his home state are familiar and welcome. So, it’s a bonus that he hasn’t made any noise in a while. Since opening the season with a T19 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, where the wind can be just as palpable, he’s cashed four times in seven starts but none for a top 50. Not unlike Kuchar, Phillips’ accuracy off the tee and putting served as his strengths. He hung up a steady T18 here last year with gritty rounds when the wind post-cut (when he stood at T37). Since then, he added a T15 at THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson (also in Texas) and that gutty runner-up finish to retain his card late in the fall in breezy Bermuda.

    Odds were sourced at DraftKings.

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