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Power Rankings: Valero Texas Open

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Power Rankings

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    Written by Rob Bolton

    Anyone who considers following Gary Woodland’s epic performance at the Texas Children’s Houston Open with one of his own at this week’s Valero Texas Open should abandon the notion immediately. For one, Woodland’s five-stroke victory in the throes of coming to terms publicly with the challenge of PTSD stands alone as a historic achievement. For another, TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course demands so much from a professional golfer that rising above it for the title is fulfillment enough after the dust settles in the Hill Country of Texas.

    A field of 132 is assembled for the final stop before the first major of the season. Among them, 24 are exempt into the Masters but one more can book the trip because the last tee time at Augusta National Golf Club next week is reserved for the winner of the Valero.

    Below those projected to contend for the victory is a lesson of the challenge of the Oaks Course, the impact (and promise) of weather, what’s new this year and an extended trend among the winners.


    For the uninitiated viewer of the Valero, the stat that jumps off the page to describe the possibilities of this tournament – and one that veteran fans can respect – is that Brian Harman’s 3-over 75 in the final round matched the highest closing score by any winner of any PGA TOUR event since 2014 when Steven Bowditch prevailed with a 4-over 76 ... at the same tournament. Oh, and Harman still won by three strokes, equal to his margin atop the leaderboard entering the finale.

    Indeed, TPC San Antonio has done some damage to those who accept the challenge. While its fairways and average-sized greens rank annually among the stingiest to find off the tee and in regulation, respectively, Mother Nature often crashes the party just north of downtown San Antonio. She’s the reason why Harman was able to finish the job last year, what with winds ushering a cold front through, thus elevating scoring significantly on the stock par 72 measuring 7,438 yards. Two years ago, playoff survivor Akshay Bhatia and his victim, Denny McCarthy, tied the course record at 20-under 268. So, like a seaside track, TPC San Antonio all but requires the invisible force to show up in defense.

    Coincidentally, this year’s forecast resembles last year’s, except that breezes pre-cut could challenge a bit more. Things might die down for Saturday’s scheduled third round, but the weather will turn for the finale. After daytime highs in the 70s and 80s prior to it, a north wind will disallow the temperature from reaching 70 degrees on Sunday. It’ll feel even cooler with sustained moderate winds and gusts in the vicinity of 25 mph. Rain also is expected at multiple times throughout the tournament.

    As Harman showcased, the winner will want to have his affairs in order so as to withstand the abuse. As a winner of The Open Championship, it came as no surprise that he was built for it by putting himself into position on approach to get his primary weapon from the left side on the putting surface. He averaged only 11 greens hit per round but that ranked T11 among the 66 who cashed. He then led the field in putts per GIR and didn’t miss from 7 feet and in. Per usual to prepare for strong winds, the overseeded greens are prepped to just 11½ feet as measured by the Stimpmeter.

    The only modification to this year’s setup is that the primary rough is up an inch to 3 inches. The eyebrows of the same new viewers will rise when they lock in on the tallest cut on the perimeters of holes. That hay is 6 inches high. Short of a host course for The Open, there isn’t another track that encourages accuracy off the tee visually more than the Oaks Course.

    It’s not quite the drought that the Masters can boast in citing the late Fuzzy Zoeller as its most recent winner in a first appearance in 1979, but since the first three winners of the Valero at TPC San Antonio in 2010, 2011 and 2012, there hasn’t been a debutant who’s taken the title. Given the profile of what’s in store, it’s a wonder that it’s happened at all since the inaugural edition.

    ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

    PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton previews and recaps every tournament. Refer to the timing of his contributions below. He’s also active as @RobBoltonGolf on X where you can connect with him.

    MONDAY: Power Rankings
    TUESDAY: Fantasy Insider; Expert Picks*; Sleepers**
    SUNDAY: Qualifiers, Points and Payouts

    * Sign up now for content found exclusively in “The Early Card” newsletter, arriving to your inbox each Tuesday.

    ** Rob also is included in Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf that publishes on Tuesday.

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